Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
810 FXUS65 KREV 180934 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 234 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry today with no showers or storms expected through Wednesday. * A warming trend this week will produce hot weather late this week through the weekend, posing a risk of widespread heat impacts. * Monsoonal moisture arrives late this week, increasing thunderstorm chances Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Strong high pressure begins to shift westward today and anchors near the Four Corners region through the weekend. As a result, warmer temperatures are in store this week -- especially Thursday onward -- with dry weather prevailing through Wednesday. Our warming trend peaks before the weekend with the hottest days favoring Thursday through Saturday. Daytime highs will be upper 80s and upper 90s for mountain and valley communities, respectively, resulting in widespread moderate (2 out of 4 levels) to locally major (3 out of 4 levels) HeatRisk. Warmer nighttime temperatures in western Nevada will compound heat impacts as 65-70F lows provide minimal relief from the heat. It`ll stay hot Sunday into early next week, but a cooling trend will make it more seasonably so. Monsoonal moisture remains on track to overspread the region at the end of the week, increasing the potential for thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend. Storm chances/coverage will likely expand northward each day and peak over the weekend -- initially confined to Mono and Mineral counties Thursday, spreading to Tahoe communities and the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area on Friday, and reaching the Oregon border this weekend. While this broad evolution is favored, timing may change in the coming days based on when/how quick moisture moves across the region. Dry lightning and heavy rain will be possible with late week/weekend storms, along with usual hazards (e.g., strong outflow winds, small hail, lightning). -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions prevail today with light AM winds becoming SW/W gusts of 15-25 kts in the afternoon. These surface winds will develop beneath backing FL100 flow to S/SSW, which may present minor LLWS impacts at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV in the late afternoon. Surface winds become light after 05Z, mitigating any LLWS issues. Warm and dry weather with typical afternoon breezes continue through midweek with increasing thunderstorm activity late this week. -Salas && .FIRE WEATHER... Building high pressure over the Four Corners region will draw monsoonal moisture into the region at the end of the week, likely resulting in an uptick in thunderstorm activity Thursday through the weekend. However, there is uncertainty in the overall dry lightning threat given that faster storm motions are favored, but so are wetter storms and heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, the potential for dry lightning and new fire starts will increase from late week into the weekend -- especially along the periphery of the moisture plume and/or outside of rain cores. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$