170
FXUS65 KREV 241905
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1205 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances continue today through
  mid-week, bringing frequent lightning, small hail, gusty winds,
  and flooding potential.

* The greatest chances for flooding will take place today through
  Tuesday, with the highest risk for flash flooding over urban
  areas and burn scars such as the Davis and Connor.

* A cooling trend begins today and continues through this week,
  dropping temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Forecaster confidence in afternoon thunderstorms has decreased
this morning. The 12Z sounding recorded 0.98 inches of PWAT,
which is well above the 90th percentile based on sounding
climatology. While this looks promising for abundant rainfall
areawide today, this forecaster disagrees.

Skies earlier this morning looked promising; it looked as if the
lingering cloud cover was going to burn off as the sun rose.
However, the cloud deck only got thicker. As clouds continue to
fill in today, this will make it very challenging for discrete
storms to populate; we won`t have the required daytime heating and
therefore the instability. Instead, I`m expecting for any rain
today to be more stratiform in nature. This has thus reduced the
risk for thunderstorm impacts such as small hail and gusty winds.

In areas where there is more clearing, namely in Mono and Mineral
counties, some cells are trying to populate. Like yesterday,
they`ll move northward. Heavy rain out of these cells remains a
possibility, based on the amount of moisture and how storms
developed yesterday.

Monday is looking to be a better day for widespread discrete storm
coverage and the capability for producing flooding concerns.
Model PWAT values decrease back into our known sweet spot
(0.7-0.8") and the high pressure pivots back eastward. Assuming
the cloud cover today clears out enough ahead of tomorrow morning,
we could see something similar to Saturday with widespread
showers and thunderstorms and the coinciding threats. This looks
to continue to be the trend Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

Beyond Wednesday, confidence decreases. As the high moves over
Texas, a low off the PacNW starts to creep in. We will likely see
drier conditions and the possible return of wind concerns.
However, if the high or low wiggles in one way or another, that
could change. What we are confident on in the long term is that
temperatures will decrease! Highs will stay below normal through
the remainder of this week.

-Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

Abundant monsoonal moisture continues to bring widespread
coverage of showers this afternoon. Brief periods of IFR
conditions are possible due to heavy rain and sudden reductions
to visibility. The best chances for thunderstorms today will be
around KMMH, where storms will be capable of producing 0.25-0.75"
of rain in individual storm cores, along with small hail,
lightning, and outflow gusts up to 45 kts. More stratiform-type
rain is expected for the remaining terminals.

An active thunderstorm pattern is expected to continue through
the middle of next week with better chances for widespread
thunderstorms returning Monday through Wednesday.

-Giralte/Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Flood Watch until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>003-005.

CA...Flood Watch until 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ072-073.

&&

$$