114
FXUS65 KREV 152002
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
102 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Generally a warming and drying trend this weekend.

* A 10-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms remain through the
  weekend for Southern Lyon, Mineral, and southeastern Churchill
  Counties.

* Warming to near normal for next week, with afternoon westerly
  breezes. Showers or thunderstorms may return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* While much of the moisture the region has dealt with the past
  several days is being scoured out of the region, it`s still
  present across southern and eastern Nevada. For western Nevada,
  the 12Z KREV sounding still indicated PWATs of 0.71". The
  atmosphere is certainly more stable, but there is just enough
  moisture present to keep 10-20% chances for showers and
  thunderstorms today and Sunday across Southern Lyon, Mineral,
  and southeastern Churchill Counties. The HREF agrees with this
  as well, even showing a bit more coverage Sunday as compared to
  today, due to increased surface heating.

* A shortwave traversing through the Pacific northwest will bring
  a slight uptick in our typical afternoon westerly Zephyr breezes
  on Monday, primarily in far northeastern California and
  northwestern Nevada, closer to the Oregon border. There`s a 40%
  chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph for a few hours in the late
  afternoon. While not indicative of widespread critical fire
  weather, it`s certainly eyebrow raising given recent wildfires
  and will need to be monitored.

* A high pressure center expands westward through the week bringing
  warmer temperatures, with highs returning to the 90s in lower
  elevation valleys. Increasing instability, along with moisture
  sneaking in under the ridge will bring low end chances (10-20%)
  for storms the middle into the end of the week. A few ensemble
  members are more aggressive with the moisture surge, so there is a
  5% chance for more expansive shower and thunderstorm coverage.

* The other item to keep an eye on is a trough late next week off
  the northern CA coast, which deepens southwest flow over the
  region. The probability for wind gusts exceeding 30 mph is
  increasing for late week into next weekend, which may bring fire
  weather concerns.

-Dawn


&&

.AVIATION...

* Widespread VFR conditions this weekend, outside of low end (10-
  20%) chances for showers or thunderstorms across Southern Lyon,
  Mineral, and southeastern Churchill Counties from approximately
  21z-02z. Elsewhere, few to scattered mid-high level clouds, with
  most development in the afternoons.

* Winds will be light and variable, turning westerly with peak gusts
  at terminal sites reaching 10-20 kts in the afternoon, in absence
  of any thunderstorm outflow winds. An uptick in WSW winds should
  be expected Monday afternoon and evening, with gusts reaching 15-
  25 kts. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$