Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
304 FXUS65 KREV 031923 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1223 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy to gusty winds along with prevailing dry conditions will allow for elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns into this evening. * Gradual warming trend begins Tuesday with dry conditions expected and typical westerly afternoon winds. * Seasonal temperatures return mid-week followed by above average temperatures towards next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough and weak cold front will move through the northern half of the CWA later tonight through early Monday morning. Ahead of this feature, west to southwest winds will continue to ramp up through the remainder of the day, with the latest HREF guidance showing gusts up to around 30-35 mph with ridge winds gusting up to around 40 mph. These increased winds will not only lead to fire weather concerns (See Fire Weather Section for more), but also wind-related impacts for recreation and travel. Please use caution today as area lakes particularly in western NV may see a few hours of winds that are close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria and may cause some choppy waters. Otherwise, conditions are fairly benign with high temperatures for the valleys in the upper 80s to lower 90s range while the Sierra communities have the upper 70s to the lower 80s. For the upcoming week, the aforementioned trough moves out of the area on Monday. We`ll see around 2-4 degrees of cooling with overall temperatures ending up 3-6 degrees below average. By Tuesday into Friday, the overall synoptic pattern will feature a strong high pressure parked over NM and eastern AZ. By the weekend, long-term ensembles show this high pressure gradually shifting back west over western AZ/southern NV. For us, this will translate into a gradual warming trend through the week. Seasonal temperatures for early August arrive mid-week, followed by slightly above average temperatures. For reference, average high temperatures for August 7th are in the low to mid-90s for valley portions of the CWA, with upper 70s to mid-80s for eastern Sierra communities. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all area TAF sites, with winds gusting up to around 25-30 kts until around 04/05Z. While most of the region looks to stay dry, some models show a slight chance (10-15%) for an isolated shower or dry thunderstorm in areas closer to the OR border until 04/01Z. Dry conditions are anticipated from Monday onward with typical afternoon breezes returning to the forecast. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... For the remainder of the day, thunderstorm chances are sparse (10-15%) and mainly limited to the Surprise Valley and far northwest NV near the OR border. A few dry strikes are possible this afternoon in these areas, although some of the higher resolution guidance still keeps the lightning threat to north of the OR border. For the remainder of the day, expect west to southwest winds with gusts up to 30-35 mph with minimum relative humidity down to around 10-15%. The timing of the peak winds still might not line up ideally with the lowest RH, with a weak cold front passing after midnight into early Monday morning. Some locations in western NV could see 1-4 hours of critical fire weather conditions. If any holdover lightning ignitions from recent thunderstorm days are present, these increased winds could lead to some fire spread in areas where vegetation has either dried out sufficiently after recent rainfall, or in areas where less rain occurred. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$