Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
689 FXUS65 KREV 140908 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 208 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening, but with decreased coverage and strength compared to yesterday. * Drier conditions prevail this weekend into much of next week with temperatures just below mid-August averages. * Most days will see afternoon breezes near or below typical levels, with low risk for a stronger wind event into next week. && .DISCUSSION... After a couple of active thunderstorm days with some areas receiving heavy rainfall, flooding, hail and strong winds, we`ll be returning to a quieter weather pattern for the upcoming week. For today, residual moisture and instability, with a weaker upper level disturbance passing across CA-NV will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Sierra and parts of western NV. Compared to yesterday, the key ingredients for producing organized storm clusters are not as evident, resulting in more isolated coverage especially west of US-95. For west central NV near and east of US-95, storms may be a bit more organized with better instability (CAPE values 400-700 J/kg) and upper forcing from the disturbance arriving by late afternoon. This could lead to stronger cells producing isolated pockets of heavy rainfall, outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph, and small hail, with a few showers and storms lingering later into the evening. After this weather system departs, a drier pattern then sets up over eastern CA-western NV from this weekend through much of next week. While a gradual drop in daytime humidity and overnight recoveries are expected, they won`t reach the exceedingly dry levels which occurred during the recent heat event. Most days will see afternoon breezes near or below typical speeds with gusts 20-25 mph. Medium range guidance brings the potential for a slight upward bump in winds for a day or two next week, but at this time a significant wind event is not anticipated for the upcoming week. Temperatures remain on the cool side again today with highs mainly in the lower-mid 80s for lower elevations and 70s for Sierra communities. A slight warmup then occurs over the weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s in the valleys and upper 70s-near 80 for Sierra sites. Some scenarios bring a bit more warming by mid-late next week with mid 90s within reach, but confidence is lower due to an increasing temperature spread among the ensemble guidance data. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through this weekend with typical afternoon wind gusts generally 20 kt or less. The only exception is a slight 15-25% chance for a passing shower or t-storm near KRNO/KCXP/KMEV mainly between 22Z-02Z. Impacts look to be more limited to spotty -RA, brief gusts to 25 kt, and maybe a few lightning strikes. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$