Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
903 FXUS65 KREV 050340 AAA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Reno NV 840 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .UPDATE... Winds were decreasing as the boundary layer decouples and gradients weaken. In addition, humidity levels were slowly rising from their lows this afternoon. Therefore, the red flag warning and the lake wind advisories have been allowed to expire. Latest alert cams show the Peak Wildfire has not been near as active as it had been 24 hours ago with AQI observations not showing anything notable down in Mono-southern Lyon-Mineral counties. So some light haze is the most likely outcome unless fire activity increases again. Hohmann && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /issued 110 PM PDT Fri Oct 4 2024/ SYNOPSIS... * Gusty winds into this evening will bring critical fire weather conditions, unsafe boating conditions, and blowing dust. * Aside from low probability of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, warm and dry conditions continue through the middle of next week. * A notable cooling trend with increased winds and rain chances may arrive late next week. DISCUSSION... The wind gust forecast for today is on track with gusts in the 30-45 mph range in the lower elevations with 50-70 mph winds over ridge lines. Winds start to diminish after 6-8 pm this evening, then turn light overnight. Light mid to late afternoon breezes will surface the next few days with no significant wind impacts. Ensemble solutions continue to produce a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday over the Sierra and western NV. This is due to moisture and waves of energy passing overhead between the high pressure system over the Southwest and a strengthening low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Dry and warm conditions will hang around with minimal if any cooling the next several days. A piece of the Gulf of Alaska low may break off and drop south into CA and NV late next week. For now this is a low confidence scenario but could lead to cooler temperatures with breezy winds and rain/mountain snow showers. Liquid amounts are not impressive with ensembles producing a 20% chance for more than a 0.10" of liquid in the Sierra next weekend. Brong AVIATION... VFR conditions the next several days. Gusty surface winds and mountain turbulence will continue into this evening with light winds retuning around 06 UTC Saturday. Plan on afternoon cumulus clouds this weekend and Monday with 10-15% chance of showers/thunderstorms over the Sierra and western NV. Brong FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warning...Winds gusts will remain in the 30-45 mph range across northeast CA and northwest NV, with gusts 25-40 mph along the Sierra Front. Gusty winds will start to diminish after 6-8 pm this evening though light breezes and occasional gusts of 20-25 mph may linger across northern Washoe and Pershing counties until midnight or so. Simulations show a 10-15% chance of showers/thunderstorms Sunday into Monday over the Sierra and western NV. While the probability of occurrence is low, recent warm and dry conditions continue to favor new ignitions if lightning occurs. Brong && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$