925
FXUS65 KREV 072025
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
125 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon, with
  increasing coverage Sunday and Monday.

* Very warm temperatures persist into the middle of next week
  with moderate HeatRisk in northeast CA and western NV valleys.

* Slightly cooler temperatures and increased winds likely return
  mid-late next week, resulting in impacts to fire, travel, and
  recreation interests.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Summer-like heat with daily showers and thunderstorm chances will
continue to be the main weather highlights into early next week
amid a pattern showing slowly evolving weather features.
Thunderstorm chances today appear to be a little less compared to
yesterday with the main upper low a bit farther offshore from the
CA coast and a drier ENE flow across western NV-northeast CA. A
mid-level dry slot and capping inversion was observed on Reno`s
12Z sounding and remains on model soundings through this
afternoon, which would also limit vertical convective growth. The
best potential (15-30%) for isolated pulse-type storms favors the
Sierra in Alpine and Mono counties. Elsewhere, lesser chances of
10-15% linger around the Tahoe basin and into northeast CA, mainly
if outflow interactions trigger new shower/storm formation.
However, the majority of the cells are more likely to be kicked
west of the Sierra crest this afternoon, especially in areas north
of US-50.

For Sunday and Monday, this offshore low begins to approach the CA
coast again, with mid level flow becoming more ESE, allowing for a
bit more moisture and instability compared to today, without the
mid-level capping inversion. This low then drifts inland across
southern CA by Monday, with a baggy trough across central-southern
CA/NV and another weak shortwave moving into northeast CA. This
pattern would allow for increased development of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon across more areas of eastern CA-
western NV. Some of the higher resolution guidance keeps some cell
redevelopment going through much of the evening both Sunday and
Monday. This is likely a result of multiple outflow interactions
after cells begin forming, with plenty of available heat. DCAPE
values are projected in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, which could lead
to more cells producing stronger outflow gusts of 45+ mph and
potential for blowing dust if these outflows travel across the
deserts and sinks of west central NV.

For the remainder of next week, thunderstorm chances may linger
through Tuesday afternoon, especially for for northeast CA and
northwest NV. Then the pattern trends drier for the remainder of
the week, although a few ensemble members don`t fully remove the
shower threat mainly near the OR border. With this drier pattern
will be increasing west wind gusts each afternoon, which could
produce lake recreation and elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns.

Very warm daytime temperatures 10-15 degrees above average are
also contributing to this active weather pattern producing daily
rounds of convection. Highs each day through Tuesday will climb
into the mid-upper 90s across most lower elevations with
widespread Moderate HeatRisk. A few warmer valleys in west central
NV have a small 25% chance of touching 100 degrees Monday-Tuesday.
Sierra communities can expect highs in the lower-mid 80s during
this same time frame. Temperatures start to decrease slightly
Wednesday, then dip to the mid 80s-near 90 in lower elevations and
70s for Sierra communities by late next week. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms continue to be the main weather concern for the next
few days with KMMH having the best chances (20-30%) today during
the 21-03Z timeframe. This potential drops to about 10-15% for
KTRK/KTVL and less than 10% for the western NV terminals. For
Sunday and Monday, a 20-30% chance of storms will expand across
all main terminals during the afternoon-early evening. Expect
outflow wind gusts (30+ kt today and 40+ kt Sunday-Monday) and
sudden wind shifts, brief heavy downpours with reduced CIGS/VIS
and terrain obscurations, small hail, and lightning with any
thunderstorms. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$