149
FXUS65 KREV 180932
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Gusty northeast winds along Sierra ridges will continue through
  this evening before tapering off Saturday morning.

* Widespread freezing temperatures expected this morning with
  below average temperatures lasting through Saturday. Temperatures
  warm to near normal during the first half of next week.

* Dry conditions will prevail through midweek, but another cold
  front may bring a return of unsettled weather late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our latest storm continues to dig towards the southeast early this
morning, which is aligning a strong, northerly upper jet with the
Sierra and western Nevada per latest mesoanalysis. The combination of
amplified flow aloft and persistent cold air advection into the
region is maintaining gusty to strong N-NE winds in the Sierra,
especially along exposed ridges where gusts are reaching 55-75 mph
according to latest surface obs. While these winds will weaken
somewhat later today, NE gusts of 50-70 mph will prevail through
this evening along and just west of the Sierra crest before
diminishing in earnest Saturday morning.

This morning`s commute will be a "heater on full blast" type of
commute as temperatures will be in the 20s to low-30s for most
areas. The exception will be locales in colder Sierra valleys
such as Truckee, Bridgeport, Bodie, and Mammoth Lakes where
temperatures will be in the teens. Cool, fall-like weather will
stick around through Saturday with highs only reaching the 50s
and 60s areawide, but steady warming will bring temperatures back
into the 60s and 70s by Sunday. Minor warming each day will keep
highs in the upper 60s to 70s during the first half of next week
with chilly mornings each day in the Sierra.

Next week will begin mild and dry as high pressure in the eastern
Pacific moves towards the western states, however, ensembles hint at
another round of unsettled weather and increased winds late next
week. As of now, timing of increased winds and showers are favored
to begin Thursday and may linger as late as Saturday night. With
that being said, there`s still plenty of time for guidance to change
with next week`s potential storm so be sure to check the latest
forecast frequently as details become more clear.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

The main weather concern will be strong E-NE FL100 winds of 50-70
kts in the Sierra, lending to occasional LLWS for Sierra
terminals through this morning and again late this evening when
surface winds are weakest. Additionally, amplified E-NE flow aloft
may pose some turbulence issues from the Sierra crest westward
into California into early Saturday before FL100 winds subside.
Lighter winds will then prevail over the weekend.

The only other concern is the potential for FZFG at KTRK early this
morning (most likely between 12-15Z), although colder, drier air and
continued breezy winds in Truckee will limit duration and coverage
of any FZFG that should develop. Otherwise, widespread VFR
conditions are expected into early next week.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning NVZ001-003>005.

CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning CAZ070-071.

&&

$$