730
FXUS65 KREV 112124 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Reno NV
224 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* West breezes increase the potential for fire growth this
  afternoon and evening for the Bug and Stallion Fires.

* Thunderstorms with heavy rain, hail, and strong outflow winds
  will expand northward Wednesday and Thursday. This will increase
  the threat for spots of Flash Flooding and new fire starts due
  to lightning.

* Cooler temperatures arrive Thursday with summer temperatures
  returning for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Elongated area of low pressure along the west coast and high
pressure near the Four Corners region will increase moisture into
the Sierra and western NV the next couple of days. The low also
provides instability for shower and thunderstorm development into
Friday.

Hot temperatures today will continue to allow thunderstorms to
produce strong outflow winds near 50 mph, hail, and spots of
moderate to heavy rain from eastern Sierra into western NV south
of I-80. High resolution models push a 50-55 mph area of outflow
winds over the Carson Sink this evening, so there may be a large
area of dust impacting Pershing and Churchill Counties after 4-5
PM.

Increasing moisture Wednesday and Thursday, along with the low
pressure system and jet streak overhead boosts instability even
with cooler temperatures arriving. This raises the threat for
flash flooding for the eastern Sierra, and most of western NV
near and south of I-80, including the Bug and Stallion Fires.
Areas around the edge of the moisture surge from the Tahoe Basin
northward to Lassen and northern Washoe Counties will have a mix
of wet and drier storms opening the door for new fire starts due
to lightning. If abundant cloud cover develops, strong
thunderstorm and lightning activity may be muted, leaving the area
under a large area of showers with wetting rains.

By Friday, thunderstorm activity diminishes as a drier southwest
flow arrives for the weekend, but that may be a temporary break in
the activity. Simulations bring another low near the California
coast which may bring a mix of thunderstorms and/or dry-gusty
winds back to the region as early as Monday-Tuesday. Brong

&&

.AVIATION...

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase the next few days with
increasing threat for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across
western NV and the eastern Sierra.

For today, main concerns from thunderstorms are strong outflow
winds to 35-45 kts, hail, and spots of heavy rain south of TRK to
WMC from 21z today to 04z Wednesday. Simulations push strong winds
over the Carson Sink, which may lead to dust and low visibility
for NFL and LOL.

Smoke from the Bug and Stallion fires north of RNO will lower
visibilities in and around the fire perhaps impact RTS (Reno-
Stead), but west winds should keep conditions at 6 miles and up
for RNO. Brong

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Into this evening...Gusty and dry west to southwest winds of
20-30 mph this afternoon will bring another round of increased
fire danger to the Bug and Stallion Fires. Pyrocumulus clouds will
form above any strong bursts of fire activity on the Bug and
Stallion Fires and may collapse back on onto the fires with
strong and erratic winds this afternoon and evening. While
thunderstorms with spots of strong outflow winds near 50 mph
develop from the eastern Sierra, Carson City and Douglas County
eastward into Mineral and Churchill Counties. Rainfall may be
limited today.

Moisture increases Wednesday and Thursday leading to cooler
temperatures and wetter thunderstorms with heavy rain and spots of
flash flooding across much of the area including Bug and Stallion
Fires. Lake Tahoe northward to Lassen County will be on the edge
of the moisture increase with a mix of wet and dry storms there on
Thursday, where we have issued a Fire Weather Watch as lightning
will be more efficient at starting new fires. If abundant cloud
cover develops, strong thunderstorm and lightning activity may be
muted, leaving the area under a large area of showers with wetting
rains.

Thunderstorm activity diminished Friday though a mix of wet and
dry storm returns to western NV as moisture also decreases. The
weekend looks dry, but not hot, with low pressure returning to the
west coast which may lead to a return of thunderstorms and/or
periods of dry and gusty winds for the start of next week. Brong

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Fire Weather Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     evening NVZ458.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
     NVZ001-003.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     evening CAZ270>272-278.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
     CAZ073.

&&

$$