Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
528 FXUS65 KREV 082232 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 232 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Light winds, dry conditions, and a warming trend continue into next week. * Temperatures will peak Monday with record-setting high temperatures possible. * A storm looks to impact the area late next week, with the potential for high-mountain snow, valley rain, and strong winds. && .DISCUSSION... Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures are making for a beautiful Saturday. This pleasant fall weather pattern, driven by high pressure, will continue right through Veterans Day, making for excellent outdoor weather. Temperatures will keep climbing, peaking on Monday in potential record territory. For reference, the current record high at KRNO on Monday is 74 degrees; we see an 85% chance of tying or breaking that record, with an 80% chance of breaking it outright. Aside from the warmth, light winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to persist, becoming mostly cloudy on Wednesday. Persistent valley inversions will continue during the nights. This setup brings a 30% chance of FZFG in the Martis Valley tonight. A shift in the pattern is expected late in the week. Temperatures will begin to fall on Wednesday ahead of a weather system forecast to impact the region on Thursday and Friday. Ensemble guidance is in good general agreement on this pattern change, but some key differences remain. Specifically, there is disagreement regarding the depth of the trough and slight timing differences with its passage. Current guidance suggests winds will peak on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. For much of the beginning of the event, we look to be in the right exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This area of large-scale descent may enhance the downward transport of stronger winds aloft (50-60 kts at 700 hPa), increasing the potential for strong surface gusts. The NBM currently has much of western Nevada and valleys of the Sierra at a 40-60% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph Thursday. Regarding moisture, there is a 60-70% probability of IVT values exceeding 250 kg/(ms) impinging on the Sierra Nevada, indicating a notable moisture feed. However, while IVT values look modest, the direction of the transport is key. The vectors are forecast to be from the SSW, which forms and obtuse angle with the Sierra crest. This orientation is not favorable for significant precipitation spillover into the Sierra Front. Furthermore, with the stronger jet core and associated QG ascent remaining farther north, the dynamics for spillover also appear limited. This more northerly track also means the storm appears to be a warmer one, which would keep snow levels relatively high. As with any forecast 5+ days out, details are likely to change, but those in the region should start to prepare for potential impacts from strong winds, valley rain, and high-elevation snow late next week. -Johnston && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail. High-level clouds will become scattered overnight, with scattered to broken cirrus expected on Sunday. Light terrain-driven winds will continue for all terminals. The main exception remains KTRK. The incoming cirrus deck may hinder radiational cooling enough overnight, which is why we only have a 30% chance of FZFG development after 06Z Sunday. If FZFG does manage to form, IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible. Given that FZFG hung on through 18Z this morning, any fog that does develop could last well into Sunday morning. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$