169
FXUS65 KREV 080935
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
135 AM PST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* A completed warming trend will bring near normal temperatures
  today that continues through this weekend.

* Inversions strengthen under clear skies and light winds that
  results in hazy skies continuing through Saturday.

* The weekend ends with active weather that starts with two storm
  systems that bring gusty winds, valley rain, and mountain snow
  to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION

A northerly flow aloft over the Sierra and western NV this morning
continues to pull cooler air into the region. This condition,
however, will be brief as an an upper ridge axis that bends
gradually to the northeast into the west coast will track slowly
east into the Great Basin region through Saturday. The follow-on
clear skies and light winds will not only strengthen overnight
inversions, but also enhance overnight radiation cooler region-wide
as well. Two things will result; colder morning lows and extra
haze. The hazy skies will be the consequence of pollutants and
smoke trapped in the stable layers near the surface. On the other
hand, upper ridges presence will contribute to temperatures
warming to seasonal averages into the weekend. Look for daytime
highs topping in the upper 50s and lower 60s across western NV
with mostly low to mid 50s for Sierra valleys.

The first upper trough may pass overhead unnoticed except for skies
accented with extra layers of high level clouds and west to
southwest winds increasing to 40 mph across higher Sierra ridge
tops. Any precipitation chances with this weaker system will be
confined mostly north closer to the OR border. The enhanced breezes
across the Sierra will at least mix low enough to scourer western NV
valley areas of pollutants and smoke that contributed to the
generally hazy mid-fall skies.

The next Pacific storm system in this active weather pattern will
possess stronger forcing and upper dynamics supporting an attendant
cold front. It will also have a better organized pattern of moisture
supplied by a relatively weak AR attached to this storm system. The
other element to consider will be the gusty southwest winds ahead of
the incoming trough and cold front as well. Wind gusts across higher
Sierra ridges will peak to 70-80 mph overnight Sunday into Monday
with wind gusts to 40 mph mixing down into western NV valleys later
that morning into the afternoon. As the cold front sweeps into the
region, blended guidance shows shower chances increasing across
northeast CA overnight Sunday into early morning on Veterans Day,
that spreads southeast along the Sierra and east into western NV
that afternoon and evening mostly north of Hwy-50. Although ensemble
multi-run guidance shows a slight downward trend in liquid
precipitation with this system, higher Sierra locations look to see
at least up to 0.5 inches of liquid with only a few hundredths of an
inch falling across western NV. The colder nature of this storm will
also increase snow chances initially above 7000 that descends to
5500-6000 Monday evening. The most immediate impact will occur
across higher mountain passes where there is a 30-50% for up to 4+
inches accumulated snow Monday.

A brief period of quieter conditions by mid-week ensemble
simulations showing a resurgence of the active weather pattern
starting later next week into next week. -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions, mostly clear skies, and light east-northeast winds
will persist today. Higher pressure and stable conditions with
efficient radiation cooling will produce valley inversions and an
increased chance for hazy conditions and reduced slantwise
visibility. Look for light northeast FL100 winds to 10kts through
Saturday. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$