976
FXUS65 KREV 232057
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1257 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Lighter showers linger through early Sunday morning. Gusty winds
  persist but will gradually taper overnight.

* Another storm brings more valley rain, mountain snow and gusty
  Sierra ridge winds Monday through Tuesday night.

* Drier and cool conditions return for the Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snow shower bands continue to produce minor accumulations today
but the main snow from last night has departed, producing new
snowfall up to around 1 foot for Sierra elevations above 7000
feet. Liquid precip ranged from 1-2" since Friday morning across
northeast CA and the Sierra crest west of Tahoe, with a few
locations in northeast CA exceeding 3", and 2-day liquid totals up
to 5". While rises were reported on rivers and creeks in northeast
CA, most notably the Susan River at Susanville peaking at 11.2
feet late Friday evening (0.8 feet below minor flood stage), they
have already receded with no further flooding threats expected.

Strong wind reports were widespread across the Sierra and western
NV throughout Friday and Friday night, with the most notable peak
gust of 105 mph occurring at the wind-prone Walker Lake site
along US-95 shortly after 1030 PM. While we will see periods of
breezy winds again through this afternoon, gusts won`t come close
to yesterday`s levels--generally limited to 30-40 mph with up to
70 mph for Sierra ridges.

Other than the aforementioned snow showers lingering through this
evening mainly for northeast CA and the Sierra, we`ll have a
break in meaningful precip through the rest of the weekend. Highs
will only reach the mid 40s-near 50 for lower elevations and
around 40 degrees for Sierra communities through Sunday, about 4-8
degrees below average.

The next weather system is then projected to arrive during the day
Monday, with the bulk of the moisture initially targeting areas
south of US-50. Precip chances look better for Mineral/Lyon and
eastern Mono counties, which were largely shadowed out from
yesterday`s storm. An upper low dropping in from the north
Monday night-Tuesday will then increase snow and rain chances for
areas north of US-50. Snow levels look to vary around 5000-6000
for northeast CA, 6000-7000 feet for Tahoe, and 7000-8000 feet for
Mono county before falling by late Tuesday-Tuesday night as
precip winds down. We are still anticipating potential for another
foot or more of snow above 7000 feet near the Sierra crest with a
greater than 75% chance for Mono/Alpine counties, but less
certainty (30-60% chance) around the Tahoe Basin. For Sierra/Tahoe
communities down to lake level there`s about 25-50% chance for at
least 4 inches of snowfall. Western NV valleys look to have
mainly light rain showers, with maybe a brief rain-snow mix toward
the end of the event Tuesday evening/night as colder air filters
in. Breezy periods will accompany this storm with stronger gusts
for Sierra ridges, but wind speeds aren`t expected to come near
the intensities that occurred with the current system.

For Thanksgiving weekend, overall drier conditions are expected.
However, a few ensemble model scenarios are introducing light
showers next Friday or Saturday mainly south of US-50.
Temperatures will be cool but moderate slowly toward the end of
the holiday weekend. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* Although winds are down from Friday`s speeds, gusts 25-35 kts at
  area terminals and FL100 winds SW 35-40 kts will keep light to
  moderate turbulence and LLWS going into this evening. Surface
  winds will back off after sundown, but ridge level winds will be
  a bit slower to decrease overnight into Sunday AM.

* Snow showers will persist along the Sierra with a few light
  showers drifting across into lower elevations generally west of
  US-95 through this evening. Snow accumulations are not expected
  at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and even if a light shower hits one of these
  terminals, temperatures are not expected to drop below freezing
  until after midnight when showers will have already ended. For
  the Sierra terminals, snowfall will generally be less than 1
  inch with only a 20% chance of reaching 2 inches should a
  heavier snow shower move over those airports late this
  afternoon and evening.

* Generally dry with lighter winds much of the operating period
  Sunday. Next storm will bring additional Sierra snowfall and
  valley rain with breezy conditions Mon-Tues night. Right now,
  looking at several inches of snow for Tahoe-area terminals with
  higher amounts at KMMH. Current snow level projections for this
  storm keep snow off the lower valley floors around KRNO-KCXP-
  KMEV, but cannot rule out some rain/snow mixture by Tuesday
  night as the storm winds down.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002-004.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071>073.

     Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon CAZ071>073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.

&&

$$