Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
738 FXUS65 KREV 010739 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1239 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures persist across the region with widespread minor to locally moderate HeatRisk today. * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon into evening, primarily for the Tahoe Basin and western NV. * A minor cooldown begins tomorrow through the holiday, with daily afternoon precipitation chances in the region through at least Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... * For today, the upper level low currently off the central CA coast will slowly track east into central CA. There is a broad area of upper divergent flow, which will help aid in shower and T-storm development. The best chances for showers today (20-40%) will be in Lassen, Surprise Valley, and northern Washoe County. The Tahoe Basin generally north of Mono County as well as the Reno-Carson-Minden area will have around 15-25% chance for showers and storms, with 5-15% chances elsewhere. With the current environment, these storms have the potential for erratic gusts up to 50 mph and plenty of lightning. Locally heavy rain is possible inside the cores of thunderstorms, but storm motion is high enough to curtail flash flooding chances. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees compared to Monday and end up 2-4 degrees above average, but moderate HeatRisk is still expected in the inner basins with temperatures in the upper 90s. * Shower and storm chances continue for Wednesday as the aforementioned low continues to track into the central Sierra. With the upper level support and instability, showers and storms will once again form in the afternoon and evening. The chance for precipitation (15-25%) will become widespread across the eastern Sierra and much of western NV. Temperatures start to cool down more on Wednesday, with just minor HeatRisk and near average temperatures. * For Thursday into July 4th another upper trough moves through the area. The best chances (15-25%) for precipitation are mostly for northeast CA and northwest NV on Thursday. There is an uptick in gusty west winds on Thursday and again on Friday with the passage of the trough. This will lead to possible recreation concerns on local lakes. See the Fire Weather section below for more details on fire weather impacts. Temperatures will drop below seasonal averages for the holiday weekend, with mostly mid-80s to near 90 in western NV and 70s in the eastern Sierra communities on the 4th, with dry conditions for the weekend. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * Gusty westerly winds of 20-25 kts for W.NV terminals and 15-20kts for eastern Sierra terminals from 21z-03z. * For terminals across western Nevada, high-density altitudes may arise this afternoon, especially for KLOL/KNFL. * For KSVE/KTRK/KTVL, a 15-25% chance of afternoon showers exists today and widespread for all area terminals on Wednesday. Any shower may have the potential to produce gusty and erratic outflows up to 50+ kts in it`s vicinity. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... * Isolated hybrid storms today will produce lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. The best chances (20-40%) will be in Lassen, the Surprise Valley, and northern Washoe County. The Tahoe Basin generally north of Mono County as well as the Reno-Carson-Minden area will have around 15-25% chance for showers and storms, with 5-15% chances elsewhere. * Shower and storm chances expand across much of the region on Wednesday. Once again, storms may produce lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible inside storm cores. * Brief 1-3 hour periods of localized critical conditions, mostly for western NV and inner-basin, by mid-week as breezy and dry conditions return. These dry conditions persist into the holiday weekend. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$