465
FXUS65 KREV 020930
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mostly dry conditions are expected today with a slight chance
  for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Oregon border
  in the afternoon.

* An increase in afternoon winds along with prevailing dry
  conditions will allow for elevated fire weather concerns on
  Sunday.

* Warmer conditions return next week with temperatures back to
  seasonal averages by mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest upper air RAP analysis shows a weak disturbance over
northern CA and northern NV this morning. Current satellite
imagery and radar returns report mostly clear skies and dry
conditions across the CWA with the exception of some clouds
remaining over Pershing and Churchill Counties this morning with
any lingering overnight showers having departed to the east of
the CWA. Forecast guidance projects the upper air disturbance to
make its way northeast and away from the CWA during the day
allowing for the CWA for be underneath the crest of an upper ridge
over the Southwestern CONUS today. With this setup, dry conditions
are in the forecast today for most the CWA. The exception to this
rule looks to be during the afternoon hours as the upper air
disturbance still clips area where OR,ID, and NV meet. This will
allow for a slight chance (15%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms
for Northern Washoe County as well as Surprise Valley for a few
hours with better chances north of the OR border. The latest
synoptic run of the RRFS shows the window being open between 1-5
PM PDT. With forecast PWAT values of around 0.7 inches and a deep,
dry boundary layer expected, thunderstorms that occur can be dry
and may allow some concerns for wildfire ignitions. Daytime highs
for the valley portions of the CWA look to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s range again today while the Sierra communities have the
upper 70s to the middle 80s in the forecast. Overnight lows in
the lower 50s to lower 60s range are seen for the valley areas
with the Sierra portions having lows in the upper 30s to middle
40s range.

For tomorrow, forecast guidance is depicting an upper trough
making its way slowly through the Northwestern CONUS. The axis of
this trough looks to pass over the northern portions of the CWA
after midnight. With this pattern above, the CWA expects to see
some increased winds with gusts up to around 35 mph on Sunday
afternoon ahead of a potential weak cold front passage. The latest
NBM probabilities have ticked upwards a bit to around a 60-80%
chance of seeing maximum wind gusts exceed 30 mph on Sunday
especially in western NV. As such, this still looks to bring more
wind-related impacts for recreation and travel, and elevated fire
weather concerns which are highlighted in the Fire Weather
section below. Blended model guidance also shows another slight
chance (15-20%) for isolated showers and dry thunderstorms along
the OR border in the afternoon. While the latest temperature
forecast for Sunday shows similar highs to those expected today,
slightly cooler overnight lows are forecast for Sunday night when
compared to previous night with the cooler air moving in.

While generally dry conditions are expected going through the rest
of next week, slightly cooler daytime temperatures are forecast on
Monday in the wake of the previous day`s cold front passage.
Monday`s forecast calls for the valleys having highs between the
middle 80s and around the 90 degree mark while the Sierra
portions have highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s range. But
beyond Monday, daytime high temperatures look to gradually
increase each day with a warming trend as high pressure builds in
the Southwestern CONUS. The current forecast shows lower elevations
of the CWA seeing highs in the middle to upper 90s by late next
week with highs in the Sierra portions being the middle to upper
80s. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites today, with typical
afternoon breezes producing gusts 20-25 kt today mainly between
02/21Z-03/04Z. Dry conditions are expected today though there is a
slight chance (~15%) for an isolated shower or dry thunderstorm
along the OR border between 02/21Z-03/03Z. Winds are forecast to
increase Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak cold front passage,
with gusts of 25-30 kt at the main terminals. Another slight
chance (15%) for precipitation is also in the forecast during
Sunday afternoon along the OR border. -078

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

For this weekend, thunderstorm chances are sparse and mainly limited
to the Surprise Valley and far northwest NV near the OR border. A
few dry strikes are possible each afternoon today and Sunday in
these areas, although some of the higher resolution guidance keeps
the lightning threat to north of the OR border.

Increased wind gusts up to near 35 mph are forecast on Sunday with
minimum relative humidity down to around 10-15% allowing potential
elevated fire weather conditions. The timing of the peak winds might
not line up ideally with the lowest RH, with a weak cold front
passing Sunday night, although some locations in western NV could
see 1-2 hours of critical fire weather conditions. If any
holdover lightning ignitions from recent thunderstorm days are
present, these increased winds could lead to some fire spread in
areas where vegetation has either dried out sufficiently after
recent rainfall, or in areas where less rain occurred. -078/MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$