Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
847 FXUS65 KREV 241848 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1148 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in Mineral and Mono counties, otherwise, dry conditions prevail through early next week. * Warmer temperatures and increased breezes are expected for Sunday. Be aware of fast and cold rivers and streams due to high Sierra snowmelt. * Even warmer conditions arrive for mid-late next week with highs near or above 90 degrees for western NV valleys. && .DISCUSSION... Latest satellite loop shows a weak upper low centered over southern NV and southeast CA near the Inyo-Nye county line, with mid-high level cloud cover around this low extending into Mineral-Mono counties. The location and expected slow eastward track of this low puts Mono-Mineral counties in a less favorable position for shower/t-storm development this weekend, with latest high-res guidance favoring cell formation on the west side of the Sierra crest and over central NV later this afternoon, and minimal development Sunday. While we can`t rule out a stray shower along or east of the crest in Mono County or popping up near/east of US-95 in Mineral County, this outcome appears less likely, with only a 10-15% probability today and less than 10% for Sunday. Otherwise for the holiday weekend, we`ll see warm conditions with highs mainly in the 80s for lower elevations and lower-mid 70s for Sierra communities Sunday, then about 5-10 degrees cooler Monday as a dry trough brushes across the northwest US. After today`s mainly light winds, Sunday afternoon will see increased SW-W breezes with gusts 25-30 mph, then back to typical zephyr-type PM breezes (gusts 20-25 mph) on Monday. For the remainder of the upcoming week, the overall pattern favors increased warming with a high pressure ridge building into CA/NV. The location/orientation of this ridge shows some variance across the latest ensemble guidance, with some upper lows or disturbances potentially coming close enough to produce afternoon shower or thunderstorm activity. At this time, the majority of the region looks to remain dry with only about 10-15% chance for isolated thunder mainly near the Sierra each afternoon from Wednesday into next weekend. When these smaller scale disturbances become better resolved as we get closer to these warmer days, one or more of these days may end up having an increased risk of thunder. Temperatures will likely rise to their highest levels of this year so far by mid-late week. The heat is projected to peak next Friday and Saturday as blended guidance shows 60-80% chance of highs at least 90 degrees for most western NV valleys. MJD && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions prevail through the holiday weekend. The only exception would be if a shower or t-storm forms over KMMH which could produce brief MVFR conditions and outflow gusts to 35 kt this afternoon thru 02Z. However, this potential appears to be trending lower. Light winds (generally NW-N) prevail today with gusts below 20 kt at the main terminals. Then for Sunday, SW-W winds increase with gusts 20-25 kt at the main terminals, then ease back slightly to near 20 kt Monday. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$