Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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932
FXUS65 KREV 191918
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1218 PM PDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and dry conditions remain through Thursday.

* Hot temperatures bring a risk for widespread heat impacts from
  Friday into Saturday.

* Monsoonal moisture brings back showers and thunderstorms to the
  forecast through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Until Thursday, expect gradual heating to build to its zenith on
Friday, when 100+ degree temperatures will visit western Nevada
valleys. Sierra valleys will entertain upper 80s to lower 90s
Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows will remain elevated due
to clouds developing and dewpoints increasing associated with the
incoming moisture. The heating may be intense and persistent
enough to bring heat advisories late week. As the moisture
gradient draws nearer for Friday, showers and storms take over the
narrative into the weekend.

By Friday, showers and storms will populate the skies as far north
as the Tahoe Basin and along I-80 toward Fernley, where chances of
10-15% exist. Farther south, near Mammoth Lakes, chances are the
highest at 25-30% for Friday. As we head into the weekend, the
moisture increase will bring about increasing chances for showers
and t-storms. By Saturday, the threat migrates northward all the
way into Oregon and Idaho. This will increase chances over the
Tahoe Basin to 35-40% and Mammoth Lakes to 60-65%. Sunday we will
see much of the same, with a increase in storm chances across much
of the region. Hazards to stay aware of will be periods of heavy
rain, small hail, frequent lightning and strong gusty outflow
winds. The last two, frequent lightning and outflow winds, will
increase fire weather concerns, especially Friday as the moisture
source starts toward the region. Storms may be capable of tossing
lightning, creating new fire starts in receptive and dry fuels,
and winds could carry the flames or sparks. See the Fire Weather
section below for details.

Taking a glance into next week, showers and storms will hang around,
but temperatures will be on the decline as a trough approaches from
the northwest and modifies the ridging pattern. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail through midweek for all area terminals.
  The main impact for aviators will be afternoon gusts of 15-25
  kts between the hours of 20-03z today. As we head into mid-late
  week, increased daytime heating will likely induce density
  altitude concerns across western Nevada terminals. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Today, low relative humidities and gusty afternoon winds will be
  the effective drivers behind isolated elevated fire weather
  conditions across the region. Our main concern today is for
  holdover fires that may be impacted by afternoon gusts, mainly
  during the hours of 1 to 7 PM. Gusts will be lighter starting
  Wednesday, ahead of the increasing moisture settling in for the
  weekend.

* Friday, as moisture surges northward along the edge of the ridge
  pattern, a favorable setup for thunderstorms emerges. As the
  shower potential builds in, a chance for lightning to strike
  outside of wet storm cores increases. As the dewpoints increase
  into the weekend, this threat will become negligible since the
  main storm threat will become heavy rain. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$