612
FXUS65 KREV 171912
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1212 PM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon with
  mild temperatures and breezy winds.

* A warming and drying trend is expected this week with hot
  conditions returning late week into the weekend.

* A monsoon pattern may result in increasing thunderstorm activity
  and heightened fire concerns late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms return this afternoon, in similar areas to
yesterday`s activity. Chances have lessened, however, as well as a
slight shift eastward as the front slides ever-so-slowly to the
east. Chances are greatest along the Oregon border once again,
around 35%. For the Tahoe Basin, Sierra and leeside valleys chances
range 10-20%. Most of the showers will develop after 1-2 pm, and
initialize once again over terrain, then will move eastward as they
develop and grow. Showers will taper into the overnight, leaving
behind a warming and drying trend to begin the new week.

While the weather will largely be benign through the week, Tuesday
will see a slight uptick in the afternoon gusts, with ridges gusting
30-35 mph and valleys gusting 15-20 mph. Other wise expect clear
skies and warming temperatures as the Four Corners high
retrogrades and builds westward toward the region.

Late week, an opportunity to meet the record for South Lake Tahoe
appears. The record for Friday at South Lake stands at 90 degrees,
the forecasted high temperature. Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport has a
record for Friday standing at 101 degrees, with a forecasted high of
99 degrees, so this record seems pretty safe in contrast. Of course
signals in the blended guidance may fluctuate as the end of the week
draws nearer, but little variance is expected.

Finally, as we look into the week`s end, showers and storms
return to the Sierra and Sierra Front south of US-50 for Thursday.
The flow will be related to the position of the Four Corners high
pressure dome. The showers will develop along the periphery of
the high pressure, with southerly flow tapping into the
subtropical jet and monsoonal moisture sources. The setup will be
one to watch, since the shower development is tied to the location
of high pressure. A westward shift of 50 to 100 miles could keep
us hotter and drier, while favorable placement would have the edge
of high pressure line up along the Sierra. This scenario would
produce more showers and storms with chances for wetting rains.
Friday through Sunday, the current forecast calls for shower
chances to become greater and more widespread. We will keep an eye
on things as we go through the week. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions this afternoon will again give way to afternoon
  showers near KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and to the east. Chances are 10-
  20%, with the most likely timeframe 21z through 02z. Afternoon
  gusts reach up to 20 kts across most terminals, with potential
  for gusty outflows in the vicinity of decaying storms.

* Warming and drying trend into the week with potential for
  elevated afternoon winds Tuesday. Late week heating may induce
  some altitude density concerns Thursday through Sunday. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$