Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
995 FXUS65 KREV 090910 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 210 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Winds continue to increase from the southwest through Friday. * A storm system arrives Friday into Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures and low chances for light rain and light mountain snow through Saturday. * Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold temperatures, but with better chances of rain and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... Fall-like weather is coming back this weekend. Temperatures slowly cool down through tomorrow, before a big drop happens on Saturday behind the cold front associated to the upper level trough that is approaching the region. Talking about that approach, winds keep increasing through Friday. Gusts of 25-40 mph in the valleys, and 60-80 mph along the Sierra crest are expected on Friday afternoon. Ensemble data hasn`t changed much since yesterday, and NBM guidance is still looking at a 40-80% chance of exceeding 35 mph gusts over western NV and eastern CA. These values are close to Wind Advisory criteria. So, if the trend persists we may issue one for western NV later today or tonight for Friday. Lake Wind Advisories are in effect for both Tahoe and Pyramid Lake on Friday afternoon. The precipitation associated to this system has been the hardest part of the forecast as it has fluctuated significantly from initial estimates between Friday and Saturday. The initial numbers have come down a lot, along with the timing of the rain/snow. Much of the rain is expected late on Friday evening into Saturday morning for NE CA and the northern Sierra. Western NV may not see much beyond low clouds and some brief light rain showers through Saturday afternoon. If there is any snow it will be confined generally above 7000 ft in the northern Sierra and NE CA. Rain and snow amounts are below 0.1 and 0.3 inches, respectively. Sunday to Monday morning will be the transition period between the last cold front and the next one. However, models on Sunday morning indicate the coldest morning of the season so far. Many western NV and NE CA valleys are either flirting with freezing temps, or simply below freezing, except for Mineral/ S. Lyon County. A freeze watch is very likely for most of western NV for Sunday morning. Portions of the Carson Valley may freeze as early as Saturday, although there was a short freeze yesterday morning. The next low pressure system still has plenty of uncertainty with its timing and position as it approaches the Great Basin from the PacNW. However, we continue to expect cool temperatures to prevail through much of next week. Breezy winds with the initial approach of the system on Monday, followed by lighter winds the rest of the week. Lastly, better chances for valley rain, and mountain snow above 6-7 kft. Accumulations are still hard to tell as we need a better agreement on the position of the low. At least it is looking wetter than the system of this weekend. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through Friday with mostly clear skies. Afternoon wind gusts continue to increase through Friday with gusts up to 30 kts today, and up to 35 kts Friday. However, KMMH will see gusts up to 35 kts both days. LLWS and turbulence is expected for all terminals through Friday. -HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002-004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$