899
FXUS65 KREV 232105
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
205 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A Red Flag Warning is in effect Friday afternoon through
  Saturday evening for northeast California, far northwest Nevada,
  and the Sierra Front. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Mineral and
  Churchill counties today, then Mineral and Mono counties Friday.
  Gusty outflows and lightning are the main threats.

* Friday will be the hottest day. Temperatures dip a few degrees
  this weekend before rebounding Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY:

* Thunderstorms are ongoing over central and eastern Nevada,
  where the deeper moisture remains. Additional storms are
  possible through this evening, with 15-25% chances east of
  Fallon and across Mineral County. Chances Friday decrease to
  10-20% across Mineral and Mono counties, with better coverage
  farther east. High cloud bases and a dry lower atmosphere will
  favor gusty, erratic outflows and lightning over widespread
  wetting rain. Storm chances fall below 10% this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT FRIDAY-SUNDAY:

* An eastern Pacific trough moving into the Pacific Northwest
  will strengthen southwest flow through Sunday. Chances of gusts
  above 30 mph Friday are 75% at Reno and 40-45% around Carson
  City, Susanville, and Mammoth. Probabilities increase Saturday
  to 55-80% from Lovelock and Carson City to Reno and Mono County.
  Reno, Carson City, and Mammoth retain 65-90% probabilities
  Sunday.

* Minimum humidity of 5-15% will combine with gusty winds to
  produce critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is
  in effect from 1 PM Friday through 9 PM Saturday, followed by a
  Fire Weather Watch Sunday.

* Friday highs will be near 100 at Reno and 100-103 at Fallon,
  Hawthorne, and Lovelock. Chances of reaching 100 are 70% at Reno
  and 90-95% elsewhere across western Nevada. Sierra valley highs
  will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Chances of reaching
  90 are 40% at Bridgeport, 50% at Sierraville, and greater than
  95% at Markleeville, but 5% or less around Truckee, Tahoe, and
  Mammoth. Moderate HeatRisk will be widespread, with localized
  Major HeatRisk across the Basin and Range. Temperatures ease 3-5
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

HOT AND DRY NEXT WEEK:

* The EPS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble means agree on a broad trough
  near the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest, with only small
  differences in how far south it extends. Forecast heights are
  nearly identical across eastern California and western Nevada.

* Monday remains breezy before winds return closer to typical
  zephyr speeds. Temperatures climb Tuesday, with Thursday highs
  again near 100 at Reno and 100-103 at Fallon, Hawthorne, and
  Lovelock. Chances of reaching 100 are 60% at Reno and 70-80%
  elsewhere. Meaningful precipitation remains unlikely through
  Thursday.

-Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. West-
  southwest winds will gust 20-25 kt through this evening, ease
  overnight, then return Friday afternoon. Chances for Friday
  gusts exceeding 25 kt are 55% at KCXP/KMMH, 35% at KTVL, 25% at
  KMEV, and 20% at KTRK. Thunderstorm chances will be greatest
  east of KNFL/KHTH this afternoon and evening. On Friday, chances
  increase to 15-20% for KMMH and KHTH. Fog is unlikely at KTRK
  Friday morning. Increased density altitude concerns continue
  each afternoon.

* For RNO: VFR conditions will prevail. West-northwest gusts near
  25 kt are expected late this afternoon and evening, followed by
  light overnight winds. Gusty west winds return Friday
  afternoon, with an 80% chance of gusts exceeding 25 kt.
  Thunderstorm chances at KRNO remain below 10%.

-Johnston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* A drying and warming trend begins today, although a 15-25%
  chance of storms in Mono and Mineral counties continues through
  Friday, with chances in Churchill County mainly today. Friday
  and Saturday will be the two main days of concern this weekend.
  Increased winds gusting to 35 mph and afternoon minimum RHs
  ranging from 5-15% will overlap each afternoon across portions
  of northeast California and western Nevada, yielding 3-9 hours
  of critical fire weather conditions. For this reason, and with
  the ongoing Biscar Fire nearby, we have issued a Red Flag
  Warning for these areas from 1 PM Friday through 9 PM Saturday.
  We`re also looking at Sunday to see if the increased winds
  linger and critical fire weather conditions persist for a third
  day. For the time being, we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for
  Sunday afternoon and will monitor as time gets closer.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420-
     458.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     NVZ420-458.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday CAZ270-
     278.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     CAZ270-278.

&&

$$