043
FGUS63 KMSR 111744
ESGRED

RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8            20.0   22.0   28.0    61   40   47   34   16   19
:Red River of the North
WHNN8            11.0   13.0   15.0    73   56   26   30    6   16
HICN8            30.0   34.0   38.0    24   27    6   13   <5   <5
FGON8            18.0   25.0   30.0   >95   81   46   40   28   26
HILN8            26.0   32.0   37.5    41   38   17   21   <5   12
EGFM5            28.0   40.0   46.0    75   60   25   30   <5   11
OSLM5            26.0   30.0   36.0    81   63   69   56    7   18
DRTN8            32.0   38.0   42.0    59   45   32   32   <5   12
PBNN8            39.0   44.0   49.0    73   52   46   43   13   22

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0217 Z DH12 /DC2502111742/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8      14.6/   15.6/   18.4/   21.7/   26.1/   28.7/   31.3
:Red River of the North
WHNN8       9.7/   10.1/   10.9/   11.7/   13.1/   14.6/   15.2
HICN8      18.6/   19.6/   21.9/   24.7/   29.4/   32.5/   34.4
FGON8      18.5/   20.2/   22.0/   24.5/   30.5/   33.4/   35.9
HILN8      14.9/   17.2/   19.5/   23.8/   28.7/   34.3/   37.0
EGFM5      23.9/   25.0/   28.0/   34.4/   39.9/   42.5/   45.5
OSLM5      22.6/   24.1/   27.9/   33.4/   34.7/   35.6/   36.9
DRTN8      23.2/   24.2/   28.6/   34.0/   39.2/   40.2/   41.5
PBNN8      33.0/   34.0/   38.1/   43.8/   47.8/   49.5/   50.9
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0217 Z DH12 /DC2502111742/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
:Red River of the North
WHNN8       0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.3
HICN8       0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4
FGON8       0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.4
HILN8       0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    0.8/    0.7
EGFM5       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0
OSLM5       1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0
DRTN8       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1
PBNN8       1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$