499
FXUS62 KRAH 072303
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Slightly less hot Wed-Fri compared to yesterday`s forecast. Rising
  confidence in shower/storm chances Fri afternoon/evening and late
  Sat. Otherwise, no significant changes from earlier forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 235 PM Monday...

1) Seasonable early-week temperatures will trend above normal for
Wed through Fri.

2) Dry weather through mid week yields to increasing convection
chances Fri and Sat, perhaps lasting into Sun.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 235 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable early-week temperatures will trend above
normal for Wed through Fri.

As a frontal zone progresses further to our S and SW, surface high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes this midday will build
southward into central NC as its center slides eastward. Dry air and
near-normal thicknesses will result in seasonable temps and low
humidity through Tue. As deep mid-upper level troughing along the
Eastern Seaboard shifts eastward, renewed mid level ridging will
build eastward from the Plains into our area starting mid week.
Slightly above-normal low level thicknesses Wed will climb further
and peak Thu/Fri with readings around 20 m above normal, supporting
highs around 2 categories above normal, mainly around 90 to the low
90s. Heat index values will top out in the 90s to around 100 both
days. The cold front approaching Thu night and accompanying clouds
should curb the heat a bit in the NW CWA Fri and areawide Sat into
Sun.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather through mid week yields to increasing
convection chances Fri and Sat, perhaps lasting into Sun.

Surface high pressure centered to our N will continue drifting E and
SE over the Mid Atlantic region and off the coast through Wed,
keeping us within deeply dry and stable air, with low PWs and no
pops. While temps will start to warm back up to above normal Wed,
the 850 mb ridging stretching from OK/TX east to off the Southeast
coast will limit significant Gulf/Atlantic moisture influx, keeping
us largely free of rain chances through Thu, although our southeast
areas could see a few late-day sea-breeze storms Thu. The mid level
ridge will then break down by Wed night as broad northern stream
troughing digs over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with its
accompanying surface cold front approaching our area from the NW
late Thu, resulting in increasing moisture flux and a rebound to
near or above normal PW by Fri. With the increasing mid level flow
helping to boost deep layer bulk shear and increasing low level
moisture leading to increased daytime CAPE, the confidence in the
chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms for Fri and Sat
is also increasing. With the dip in the westerlies reaching down
closer to our latitude and resulting in passing of multiple weak
perturbations over NC, these higher convection chances may linger
into Sun, particularly over our S and E, if the surface front slows
or stalls over our region.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 PM Monday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are forecast for all sites. An area of
midlevel stratus has developed across much of western North
Carolina, including INT/GSO, but those clouds are expected to
scatter out this evening. Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus is already well
on the way to dissipation. Expect light wind out of the east-
northeast around 5 kt for the next 24 hours.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail across central NC through at
least Thu, with generally dry weather. A few showers/storms are
possible in our SE (FAY) late Thu, but overall the shower/storm
chances (and chances for flight restrictions) increase starting Fri
and peak Sat, as a cold front approaches from the NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green/Hartfield