037
FXUS62 KRAH 111254
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the South Atlantic
states through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 855 AM Tuesday...

There was little change to the going forecast. Still expecting lots
of sunshine this afternoon with generally low to mid 70s this
afternoon, warmest in our western counties. This should mean highs
some 10-15 degrees above normal. The prior discussion follows below.

Previous discussion as of 245 AM Tuesday...

The sfc coastal low continues to slowly move offshore this morning
with lingering light rain showing across the southern Coastal Plain.
This rain should move east of our area over the next few hours, with
rapid clearing of the cloud deck from nw to se expected through
sunrise.  Residual gusty nnely sfc winds will hang on longest in the
Coastal Plain, but should diminish through late morning/early
afternoon.  Sfc flow will eventually turn more swly late this
afternoon but diminish with time. Aloft, flow will turn nwly for
much of today, which should promote decent downslope warming in our
western Piedmont. Highs here will reach of the mid 70s, with highs
reaching the lower 70s further east.  Overnight lows in the lower
40s are generally expected tonight under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Zonal flow over central NC is mostly expected on Wednesday.  At the
sfc, a high will migrate off the coast of Florida promoting re-
enforced swly flow over our area.  Temperatures are poised to make a
run at 80 Wednesday afternoon with solid swly flow and sunny skies.
Dry conditions are expected through the period, with lows bottoming
out in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

Aloft, a s/w, which should move inland over nrn Baja/SoCal late
today, will move ewd across the TN Valley/Southeast US and offshore
Thu/Thu night, with any moisture staying south of central NC.
Meanwhile, a high amplitude trough will move inland over the Pacific
coast on Thu and move quickly across the Intermountain West/Rockies
through Thu night/early Fri. A low will close off over the cntl
Plains, within the trough as it moves east of the Rockies on Fri.
The low should then lift newd across the Plains, upper MS Valley and
into the wrn Great Lakes through Sat. The sub-tropical ridge will
strengthen along/off the East Coast Fri/Sat, between the departing
s/w and approaching trough. As the low lifts nwd into Canada Sun/Sun
night, the trough will progress ewd across the MS Valley. The trough
should continue ewd across the Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard
Mon/Mon night. The upper level jet should still be west of/along the
Appalachians through Sun eve, weakening as it finally moves across
the area Sun night/Mon ahead of the upper trough and associated
strongest height falls (100-150 meters) and vorticity, which will
move across the area on Mon. At the surface, high pressure moving
ewd across the Northeast US will ridge swwd through the mid-Atlantic
Thu/Thu night, between an inverted coastal trough to the east and
the developing low pressure system to the west. It remains unclear
how far sw the ridge will extend before weakening and lifting newd
on Fri as a warm front lifts into the area and a potent low pressure
system develops over the cntl Plains. As the low lifts newd across
the Plains and upper MS Valley, into the wrn Great Lakes Fri/Sat,
the attendant cold front will progress ewd across the MS
Valley/Midwest. As the parent low occludes and lifts nwd into Canada
Sat night/Sun, the cold front will continue ewd across eastern US,
finally moving off the East Coast Sun eve/night. High pressure will
build in behind the front Sun night.

The best chance for showers/storms will be over the weekend with the
fropa. While some light rain will be possible as early as Sat, the
highest chances for showers/storms will be late Sat night through
Sun eve. The potential exists for development of some strong to
severe storms, but there is still some uncertainty and it will be
dependent upon the timing and how much instability will be realized
ahead of the convection. While the upper jet will still be west of
the area as the showers/storms move through, there will be a 60-75
kt 700mb jet coincident with the storms and 45-55 kts at 850mb. GFS
forecast soundings indicate 200-500 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of
0-1 Km bulk shear across the area on Sun, with MUCAPE in the 500-
1000 J/Kg and Effective Shear of 55-65 kts. The GFS is forecasting a
925mb LLJ of 40-45 kts moving across the area on Sun. Strong
winds/gusts of 25-30 kts are expected ahead of the front and with
the showers/storms, with higher gusts possible. Instability, chances
for storms, and magnitude of gusts generally increase from W-E
across central NC on Sun. With PWATs around 1.5 inches, cannot rule
out some heavy rainfall.

As for temperatures, expect above to well above normal temperatures
through Mon, warmest Sat/Sat night with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 543 AM Tuesday...

All sites remain VFR this morning as the main cloud deck pulls east
of our area.  Skies should remain clear through the 24 hr TAF
period. Residual nnwly sfc flow will continue to weaken with flow
turning more swly later this evening and overnight. Otherwise, there
is a weak signal for potential patchy fog across the southern
Piedmont/Sandhills region early Wednesday morning. As of now,
confidence is far too low to include any restrictions in this TAF
package, but KFAY would have the best chance of seeing any fog early
Wednesday morning.

Beyond 12Z Wednesday: Dry and VFR conditions are generally expected
through early Saturday.  The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will
be Saturday night into Sunday as rain associated with a cold front
moves through.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti