017
FXUS62 KRAH 111851
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the northeast coast of Florida will intensify as it
tracks slowly northeast along the coast of the Southeast states,
Carolinas, and Mid Atlantic through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...

Light rain continues to move into our southern areas as the offshore
low develops. Thus far, radar estimates are only highlighting trace
to a few hundreds of an inch in areas that have received rain.
Latest high-res guidance continues the trend of very light
stratiform rain spreading n-nw through this afternoon and evening.
As we progress into the late evening to overnight period, some
steadier (light to moderate) rain will move nw into the Coastal
Plain and portions of the Sandhills/Central Piedmont. The HREF LPMM
QPF continues to highlight perhaps three quarters to an inch of rain
in the Triangle area through 12Z Sunday morning. Those west of US-1
will likely see very little (a few hundreds to a few tenths) through
12Z Sunday, while those along I-95 may see up to an inch and a half
to maybe 2 inches in isolated spots. Given these expected rain
totals and how dry its been in the Coastal Plain, not expecting any
flooding impacts from this system. Otherwise, we`ll continue to see
nnely sfc gusts pick up this afternoon and evening with frequent
gusts of 15 to 25 mph.  Those in the Coastal Plain could see a bit
stronger gusts after 06Z tonight, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible
through mid Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

* Continued breezy with high rain chances, decreasing late.

Models agreed fairly well that the surface low will be near the
southern Outer Banks or southern coast of NC tomorrow morning, with
a likely secondary low further N along the Mid Atlantic coast. The
mid levels will continue to feature a deep E Coast low/trough,
highlighted by 2 embedded closed lows over GA/SC and NY. The surface
low is expected to steadily lift northward, reaching the tip of the
Delmarva by late Sun night. (It is worth noting that the RAP/HRRR
instead favor taking the low slowly SSW over E SC Sun/Sun night, not
an impossible solution given the presence of the slow-moving mid
level trough. But with a high spread among HREF members, will favor
a more progressive low at this time.) Given the expected high
moisture content through the low and mid levels over central NC,
strong and confluent northeasterly low level (925-850 mb) moisture
flux, a stream of 150% of normal PW, and forcing for ascent provided
by moist upglide topped with fading but still-present upper
divergence and weak DPVA, continued high pops in the 50-70% range
are warranted. An area of higher categorical pops may be necessary
over central and eastern sections, depending on where the cold front
aloft sets up as the surface low tracks northward. Additional
rainfall of a quarter to three-quarters of an inch is expected, with
isolated higher amounts possible if any pivoting rainbands form.
Winds just off the surface are projected to be from the NNE around
35-45 kts for much of the day, and with at least some groundward
mixing and modest low-level stability, peak gusts of 25-30 mph are
expected, a bit of an uptick from the previous forecast. With
minimal sunshine, thick clouds, CAA, and areas of rain, temps over
most of the area should move just 5-8 degrees from tonight`s lows,
putting highs in the mid 60s to around 70. Rain should gradually
diminish by evening and particularly overnight, with pops decreasing
to low chances mainly NE late and low amounts as lift wanes and we
lose moisture aloft. Expect a low diurnal range to persist, with
lows in the mid 50s to around 60, as we see a steady breeze last
into the night with continued high moisture in the low levels and
only partial clearing expected in the west late. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

* Lingering light rain possible in the E CWA early Mon morning,
  otherwise dry weather expected through the week.

Gradual drying is expected to continue Mon morning as low level flow
backs to a more NNW to NW direction, yielding a downslope component,
although as noted above, if the recent RAP/HRRR is correct, we may
see light rain chances hold on longer over the E as one last dose of
energy swings through the trough base over E NC Mon. Otherwise, as
the surface low departs to the NE, mild high pressure building in
from the W along with rising heights aloft due to amplified mid
level ridging spreading in from SE TX will result in fair skies and
near to above normal temps into mid week. A renewed digging of a
deep mid level low over the far NW Atlantic off New England late in
the week is still expected to drag a dry backdoor cold front
southward through NC, drawing cooler thicknesses back into the area
and bumping temps back below normal for Thu/Fri. Moist return flow
will be lacking with this front, so aside from perhaps early Mon,
dry weather is likely through Fri.

Expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Mon, coolest NE, followed
by low-upper 70s Tue/Wed, then back to the mid 60s to mid 70s for
Thu and Fri. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 127 PM Saturday...

A mix-bag of MVFR to IFR ceilings have spread across central NC this
afternoon as the coastal low continues to develop just offshore.
Expect light rain to move nnw over the next several hours with
steadier rain expected to reach KFAY/KRWI/KRDU later this evening
and overnight.  Periods of LIFR ceilings may be possible by early
Sunday morning at these terminals.  KINT/KGSO will also drop to IFR
but the heaviest rain should stay east of the Triad through this
event. Expect all terminals to remain socked in through the end of
the 24 hr TAF period.

Otherwise, expect nnely sfc winds to pick up late this afternoon and
especially into the overnight period. Gusts as high as 30 to 35 kts
could be possible at KFAY/KRWI through early Sunday morning. Expect
gustiness to persist into the early Sunday afternoon period. While
sfc gusts are expected to stay up throughout the night, there is a
signal for potential low-level wind shear especially at
KFAY/KRDU/KRWI late tonight/early Sunday morning. While it might not
be traditional LLWS in a sense, it could be quite turbulent given
the strengthening nnely jet just above the sfc (~50 to 55 kts).
Decided to add LLWS at KFAY/KRDU/KRWI to account for this
possibility.

Outlook: Light rain and sub-VFR ceilings will persist Sunday
afternoon/evening and perhaps into the overnight period. The low
will lift north into the Delmarva area by Monday morning, behind
which drier air should clear out the sub-VFR cloudiness through
Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will then persist through the rest
of the extended as high pressure settles down the east coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...NTL
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...NTL