259
FXUS62 KRAH 131957
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
357 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through Thursday night. An
area of low pressure and weak, backdoor cold front will move across
NC on Friday, with following dry and seasonably warm high pressure
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Wednesday...

A train of MCVs along the NC/VA border swwd through ern TN and swd
into AL, will continue to track around a sub-tropical ridge over the
swrn Atlantic. A couple of more may develop within what will
probably be growing (in coverage and intensity) clusters of
convection (a mix of cellular and multi-cellular) across especially
the srn half of NC through this evening, along both a differential
heating boundary from early day convection and aggregate outflow now
centered near KEHO. A band of seasonably strong mid-level flow and
effective shear around 30 kts was sampled by 12Z RAOB data across NC
and even still by regional VWP data. Transient storm rotation may
result, as has been noted in the cell now over srn Alamance Co.
Those that develop and mature in the greater instability along and
south of the differential heating zone over the srn Piedmont and
Sandhills may rotate more strongly and pose a risk of hail and
strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, forecast Corfidi
vectors through this evening suggest convection may display a
tendency to backbuild from the srn Piedmont to the cntl Coastal
Plain, which would favor a somewhat greater and more-concentrated
risk of flash flooding. Convection should then gradually dissipate
this evening, as both MVC forcing and instability diminish.

It will otherwise be very muggy and mild overnight, with areas of
stratus probable amid a very humid and rain-cooled boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM Wednesday...

* Marginal risk of excessive rain again, though confidence on where
  is low

A remnant MCV that is presently across southern AL is forecast to
reach the southern Piedmont and the NC/SC border early Thursday
morning. Guidance forecasts the MCV to track east into the Sandhills
and southern Coastal Plain by the mid/late morning to early
afternoon hours before moving toward the coast in the late afternoon
and evening. To the northwest of the MCV, there appears to be a weak
surface boundary draped SW to NE over the higher terrain. The 12z
HREF members indicate convection could generate nearly anywhere over
central NC on Thu, either along/east of the MCV or along the surface
boundary to the northwest. Although, CAMs did not handle today`s
situation very well so confidence is not great. I would not be
surprised if some morning convection over our southern zones sets up
as it did today along the MCV. Then, additional isolated to
scattered activity develops in the aftn/eve along surface
boundaries. There is a notable upper-jet streak across VA that may
fuel this development. A marginal risk remains out over the area for
excessive rain as PW`s remain well above normal. Areas that have
received rain over the past few days will be most susceptible to
flash flooding. Storm activity should wane by mid/late evening.
Highs will hover in the mid 80s, with lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 112 PM Wednesday...

* Marginal risk of excessive rain Fri, though overall threat appears
  to lessen
* Drier over the weekend into early next week, with next best storm
  chances by the middle of next week

On Fri, a weak shear axis will persist along the NC/VA border, with
a remnant MCV somewhere off the NC coast. The highest PW`s aoa 2+
inches will start to shift mainly across our southern areas of the
southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. A jet
streak will still be present over southern VA. Storm chances will be
possible anywhere over central NC again, primarily along subtle
surface boundaries. Although the marginal risk of excessive rainfall
remains in place, it appears it may be somewhat overdone with a lack
of discernible forcing. Highs should hover near average in the mid
to upper 80s, with some heat indices near 100 over the Triangle and
Sandhills. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Fri night.

Heading into the weekend and into early next week, drier air starts
to work in from the north. A mid-level ridge across the Mid MS
valley will also start to exert its influence, allowing for
subsidence across the region. While the storm chances cannot be
completely ruled out, it does appear drier than the past several
days. A trough trying to approach by the middle of next week could
favor a frontal approach for better storm chances Wed. This same
trough may keep tropical system Erin out to sea and away from NC.
Much of the ensemble tracks show this trend, but it is still too far
out to tell if any impacts might be felt.

As for highs, we should generally hover in the mid/upper 80s, with
perhaps some low 90s Mon. A slight cool-down from increased storm
chances is possible Tue/Wed in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...

MVFR ceilings over the northwest Piedmont (INT/GSO) will lift and
likely scatter to VFR by 20Z, during which time the airmass
throughout cntl NC will destabilize downstream of a couple of
additional mid-level disturbances that will trigger scattered
showers/storms through the afternoon-evening. While most should
dissipate by around 02Z, yet another disturbance will probably move
into at least the srn half of NC and impact FAY with renewed chances
of convection and flight restrictions around or shortly after 12Z
Thu. Otherwise, areas of IFR-MVFR stratus will be possible once
again Thu morning.

Outlook: Another good chance of showers and storms is expected
Thursday afternoon and evening, followed by lower, more diurnally
driven showers and storms Friday into the weekend. Morning fog
and/or low stratus will also be possible each day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...MWS/CBL