194
FXUS62 KRAH 281715
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend. A
cold front will approach the area from the west early next week,
slowly moving through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

* Shower/storm chances continue today, along with hot temps in the
  low to mid 90s.

Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs reveal Bermuda
high pressure to our east, with a stationary upper level low over
northern GA. Between them, broad southerly flow and modest moist
advection continues across the area, with a healthy cu field already
developing across the area. Surface temps and dewpoints are
generally in the low 90s and low 70s respectively, right around
where they were 24 hours prior. Convection has fired in the
mountains and has also started developing across the western
Piedmont.

With continued moist advection, the stationary upper low to our
west, and a series of weak vorticity maxima expected to rotate
around that low through the area, it would seem that storm chances
are once again warranted in the forecast through early evening.
While the last few runs of the HRRR have been somewhat quiet in
their areal depiction of storm coverage, other hi-res members of the
HREF are a bit more enthusiastic in showing storms developing along
and west of US-1 later today. MLCAPEs should run in the 2000-3000
J/KG range through late afternoon, thus anything that develops
should grow quickly. Weak steering flow generally 10-15kts or less
suggests that any storms that form will be short lived, but capable
of gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain. This area has also
been highlighted within a Marginal Risk from SPC. Storms should
taper off quickly w/ the loss of daytime heating. PoPs will be
highest across the western Piedmont in the 30-40 percent range, with
lower values farther east. All PoPs drop below 15 percent after
midnight with dry weather to follow through daybreak Sunday.

As for temps, expect late-day highs to reach the mid (possibly
upper) 90s. Lows tonight ranging from the low 70s in the western
Piedmont to the mid 70s across the southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
As of 1243 PM Saturday...

* Similar weather on Sunday with scattered showers and storms
  possible

The synoptic pattern on Sunday will closely resemble that of today,
with the quasi-stationary upper low to our west and a continued
influx of moisture from the Bermuda high to our east. The only
subtle difference is that the influence of the Bermuda high will be
weaker with H5 heights sitting at 592DM today, becoming 590DM
tomorrow. As such, the areal extent of showers and storms tomorrow
may be greater than today, with portions of the Coastal Plain seeing
activity tomorrow afternoon as well. Weak steering flow and shear
should result in short lived pulse convection, with the strongest
storms capable of gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain.

Temperatures will also be very similar with low to mid 90s for
highs/low to mid 70s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

The most active period for shower/tstm activity during the long term
will be from late Tuesday through Wednesday night as an upper short
wave trough moves across the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast,
dipping just far enough south to provide increased mid and upper
level jet energy and assoc deep layer ascent.  Otherwise, daily and
mostly-diurnal pops the remaining days of the long term will be at
or below climo chances, esp late in the week as subsidence and drier
air moves in behind the aforementioned trough.  Temps during the
long-term period will continue to run above normal and hot, with
perhaps the exception of Wednesday thanks to cloud and rain coverage
that day which will tend to keep it a bit cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1243 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and storms are expected once again later this
afternoon. The western terminals are a bit more likely to see storms
this afternoon, with highest chances between 20Z and 01Z. Confidence
in just how much storm coverage (and impacts) drops at RDU/RWI and
to some extent FAY where storms may not be as numerous. Regardless,
brief periods of reduced vsbys and erratic thunderstorm winds can be
expected from any storms that develop today. All storms should
dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime heating after 01Z. For
the time being I am going to omit fog/stratus from the TAFs although
it may be needed in subsequent TAF issuances, especially in
locations where precip does in fact develop this afternoon.

Outlook: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through
much of the upcoming week, with the highest chances coming Tuesday
and Wednesday as a front stalls across the area. Outside of the non-
VFR conditions within showers and storms, and the potential for
early morning fog/stratus, conditions should mainly be VFR this
coming week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Leins