203
FXUS62 KRAH 021750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will settle to our south and hold in place into early
next week, as cool Canadian high pressure extends into the region
from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1140 AM Saturday...

* Cooler and drier will continue to filter in from the north

A cool surface high will continue to wedge south down the Mid-
Atlantic seaboard into the Carolinas, while a stationary front
lingers across the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a
developing area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast will slowly
move eastward out into the Atlantic.

Much of the area will remain canvased in a shroud of low clouds and
spotty light rain and drizzle through the morning. However, drier
air filtering into the area from the north-northeast will lead to
gradual improvement in conditions through the afternoon and evening.
The light rain and drizzle will taper off, giving way to mostly dry
conditions for the afternoon. Skies will become variably cloudy,
with some considerable breaks of afternoon sunshine expected across
eastern and central NC, while cloud cover should hold on across the
western Piedmont.

Highs today ranging from mid to upper 70s/near 80 in the east to
lower 70s western Piedmont.

Tonight, drier air will continue to spread southward, fair to mostly
clear skies. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s, with some
upper 50s in the typically cooler locations across the northern
Piedmont---marking the coolest temperatures since the first week of
June.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

*  Preview of Fall

Central NC will remain under the influence of a cool, dry air sfc
ridge, while  a coastal low pressure system continues to drift
slowly east, moving further offshore.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures
averaging 5 to degrees below normal; ranging from upper 70s to near
80 north to lower/mid 80s south. Additionally, daytime mixing will
allow dewpoints to lower into the mid to upper 50s across much of
the area, resulting in very comfortable humidity levels. Lows Sunday
night will be comparable to tonight, consisting mainly in the lower
and mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in outlying and rural
areas across the northern Piedmont and coastal plain.

&&.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1120 AM Saturday...

* Long-duration cool weather expected with below normal temperatures
  through Friday.

* Best rain chances come Tuesday night into Thursday.

Surface high pressure over the northern Mid-Atlantic will be
replaced by another area of Canadian high pressure over the
Northeast by Tues and will favor north-northeasterly flow over the
region throughout the forecast period. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to develop along the stalled boundary over the western
Atlantic and further lock in the northerly flow over the area. This
will persist the below normal temperatures through the forecast
period with gradual modification expected Fri into Sat as the
surface high begins to shift further east and Bermuda high pressure
begins to influence the region.

Precipitation chances will be fairly limited until late Tues into
Thurs when broad troughing over the Mississippi Valley subtly
sharpens and extends weakly perturbed southwesterly flow over the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Forecast confidence is low
during this time due to high model variability, but a period of
above normal precipitation chances appears possible sometime during
this period. Instability appears limited and may mostly result in an
of stratiform rain with some embedded showers/storms at it
progresses through the area. Diurnal showers/storms become more
likely Fri and Sat as we lose influence from the surface high to the
north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

The IFR/LIFR cigs from earlier this morning have largely improved to
MVFR NE-to-SW across central NC, with patchy VFR decks currently in
our northeast, including at RWI. While there are still isolated
patches of drizzle, most of these are dwindling or pushing to our S,
thus vsbys are mostly VFR across the area. The MVFR clouds will
continue to slowly lift and break up to scattered, such that all
central NC terminals should be VFR by 21z-23z. While sct-bkn clouds
based 4500-7000 ft AGL will persist into Sun, VFR conditions should
hold through early Sun afternoon. Surface winds from the NE or ENE
will hold generally at 8-12 kts with sporadic gusts to 15-20 kts
through 23z, then become light (under 6 kts) through tonight, before
again rising to 8-12 kts with a few gusts up to 15-20 kts Sun.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, the risk of sub-VFR conditions through Sun
night appears low, and we`ll be largely dry. VFR conditions are
expected to dominate through Thu, although the chance for showers
and storms will gradually increase. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield