943
FXUS62 KRAH 031002
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
502 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

* Cloudier and cooler (than the previous official forecast and the
  latest NBM one) today, with areas of fog especially in sern zones
  overnight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

1) Cloudier and cooler (than the previous official forecast and the
latest NBM one) today, with areas of fog especially in sern zones
overnight

2) Much above normal temperatures and near record breaking warmth
expected Thu through Mon, with rain chances returning Sun/Mon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cloudier and cooler (than the previous official
forecast and the latest NBM one) today, with areas of fog especially
in sern zones overnight

The 00Z-observed GSO and RNK soundings sampled a pronounced frontal
and cold air damming inversion, with associated 7-8C temperature
differentials between inversion top and base, which should further
saturate and yield lowering ceilings amid continued 925 mb-centered
WAA and Fgen this morning. Areas of light rain or drizzle will also
result from that frontal and isentropic ascent mainly across the far
nrn Piedmont. Associated stability and ceilings will linger well
into the day --probably all day over the Piedmont-- and with lifting
and afternoon scattering most likely on the sern periphery of the
damming regime and residual cool pool (ie. across the ern Carolinas
and adjacent srn-cntl Coastal Plain and ern Sandhills in cntl NC).
Temperatures today will consequently be much slower to rise and only
attain highs probably in the lwr-mid 50s over the nrn Piedmont and
nrn Coastal Plain, mid-upr 50s elsewhere in the Piedmont, and lwr-
mid 60s over sern zones - or one to two categories on average (3-6F)
cooler than the previous forecast and latest National Blend of
Models.

Scattered to broken stratocumulus will probably linger over the
Piedmont through the evening, while the aforementioned afternoon
scattering/partial clearing in sern zones will favor stronger
radiational cooling and development of areas of fog overnight-Wed
morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Much above normal temperatures and near record
breaking warmth expected Thu through Mon, with rain chances
returning Sun/Mon

Confidence is high that strong mid level ridging will build over and
just off the Southeast U.S coast through late this week through the
weekend, as a deep closed southern stream low digs over and just W
of NW Mexico. Surface high pressure will be situated roughly beneath
this ridge, extending westward across the Southeast states, limiting
the amount of low-level Atlantic- or Gulf-source moisture into
central NC. This, in conjunction with dry/subsiding mid levels,
favors minimal cloud cover, likely restricted to flat high-based
daytime cu. Model consensus is that our daily low level thicknesses
will be around 50 m above normal Thu and near 60 m above normal Fri-
Mon, suggesting highs around 20 deg F above normal, given decent
insolation, while daily lows will be similarly mild, in the mid 50s
to lower 60s, close to the normal highs for this time of year, with
Fri and Sat apt to be the warmest days. Both highs and lows will be
very close to records at GSO/RDU/FAY.

Late in the weekend, passage of a northern stream shortwave trough
through the St Lawrence Valley Sat night/Sun and additional waves
close on its heels moving through Ontario/Quebec Sun night/Mon will
serve to flatten the mid level ridge over the Carolinas. This will
propel a surface cold front SE and S toward NC, although the front
is expected to hold to our N through Mon. Nevertheless, a prefrontal
increase in both clouds and PW should lead to increasing shower
chances, mainly Sun through Mon. Despite the clouds and precip
potential, thicknesses will remain anomalously high Sun/Mon, keep
temps (especially lows) well above normal into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 500 AM Tuesday...

Moist, nely flow at the surface, and gentle lift just above the
surface, will favor a continued lowering of ceilings into LIFR-IFR
range this morning, except low MVFR to IFR at FAY. Periods of light
rain/drizzle and mist will also be possible, especially at INT and
GSO, where the aforementioned lift will be maximized and ceilings
will probably be lowest. Ceilings will only slowly lift into and
through MVFR today, relatively quickest and with probable afternoon
scattering to VFR at FAY and RWI. MVFR ceilings may meanwhile linger
until late afternoon or early evening over the Piedmont. Scattering/
clearing will then favor radiational cooling of a residually cool
surface layer that will have been sheltered (by the lingering
clouds) from stronger daytime heating, such that areas of fog and
low stratus will probably redevelop overnight-Wed morning, most
likely at RWI and FAY.

Outlook: While areas of stratus and/or fog will be possible each
morning through the rest of the week, probability of occurrence will
be highest at ern sites (ie. FAY and RWI), where low-level moisture
will be richest and deepest.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

March 5:
KGSO: 81/1967
KRDU: 83/1967
KFAY: 87/1976

March 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918

March 7:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 85/1974
KFAY: 84/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 83/2000
KFAY: 87/1974

March 9:
KGSO: 81/1974
KRDU: 84/2009
KFAY: 87/1974


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6:
KGSO: 64/1967
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961

March 7:
KGSO: 63/1956
KRDU: 64/1956
KFAY: 65/1961

March 8:
KGSO: 57/1946
KRDU: 60/1946
KFAY: 63/1961

March 9:
KGSO: 61/1921
KRDU: 61/1921
KFAY: 62/1980

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/GIH
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...DATA/LOCAL