163
FXUS62 KRAH 011011
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered shower chances today, except for the south and east.

* Drought conditions expected to worsen this week with the 7 day
  rainfall expected to be very low to nothing.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Monday...

1) A cold front will move through the region today; however, shower
chances stay mostly over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The chance
of showers/storms has trended lower again.

2) A brief period of cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday,
rising back to the 90s by this weekend. Dry weather to continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...  A cold front will move through the region today;
however, shower chances stay mostly over the Sandhills and Coastal
Plain. The chance of showers/storms has trended lower again.

Most of the significant rain today will fall outside of our region
(south). This is where the higher dew points, PW`s, instability and
lift reside. Very little of the above will be noted over the drought
ravaged north-central NC as the current pattern continues with
plenty of dry air to overcome and very little time today for
moisture recovery. This is due to another quick moving cold front.
The cold front will move into the region from the northwest today
and offshore this evening. This front will focus scattered
showers/thunderstorms, mainly south and east of the Triangle this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry conditions and highs in the 80s.

This will be followed by another week of dry weather with very
little evidence of any moisture recovery and continued very, very
limited instability for days to come. Note the upper low that
develops offshore and is too far east to help central NC out. It
will do the opposite as all moisture sources will be cut off due to
the northerly and northwesterly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2 ... Cooler Tuesday/Wednesday before rising back to the
90s by this weekend. Dry through the extended.

After today`s cold frontal passage, a brief period of cooler
temperatures will return to the region. Tuesday will be about 5-10
degrees below normal as surface high pressure and associated ridging
starts to build into the west, with highs in the 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures should rise slightly on
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The high then
looks to pass over the region on Friday, allowing for winds to shift
to be out of the south. This should allow highs to return to the
upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, rising to the lower 90s on
Saturday and Sunday. As high pressure is driving the weather pattern
and relatively dry air remains over the region, central NC should
remain mostly dry through at least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 AM Monday...

TAF period: Generally VFR cigs can be expected through 12z, then
MVFR cigs are expected between 12z and 15z. This is due to low level
moisture return ahead of a cold front. The front will move south
through the region today and offshore this evening. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly in the south and east
where the timing of the front will be favorable this afternoon.

Outlook: Generally VFR are expected to return behind the front
tonight and  continue through the work week. A few areas of stratus
are possible around daybreak Tuesday and gusty winds up to 20kts are
possible behind the front tonight.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/LH
AVIATION...Badgett