590
FXUS62 KRAH 230041
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
841 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry, reinforcing cold front will move southeast across North
Carolina through tonight. Behind this front, cooler high pressure
will build from central Canada over the Mid Atlantic region into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 PM Thursday...

A few strong mid-level impulses are currently moving over central NC
this evening. At the sfc, a reinforcing cold front has slid into the
southern Sandhills and Coastal Plain.  These sfc and upper features
have generated a few isolated showers across the NC/VA border, and a
few storms along the NC/SC border (dew points are still in the 50s
here).  As these features continue to advect ese over the next few
hours, additional isolated showers and perhaps an isolated storm
will be possible across southern areas. However, this activity
should largely wane as we go into the overnight hours. A few
isolated sprinkles/showers may also be possible overnight as another
stronger mid-level impulse currently oozing into KY moves overhead
through sunrise. Any lingering gustiness should subside next hour or
so, however additional light stirring of sfc flow is expected
overnight. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 50s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

* Cooler and dry day on Friday.

After the exit of the frontal system today, cool high pressure will
build in to the west on Friday. This will allow for deep
northwesterly winds to bring cool and dry air into the region.
Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Highs are
expected in the 70s, with low 70s in the north to upper 70s in the
south. Lows will dip into the mid/upper 40s in the north to the mid
50s in the south.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...

Sat/Sat night: Dry weather is likely to hold, as we remain in a fast
NW steering flow, with the surface frontal zone holding to our S,
from OK across SC, while high pressure extends into NC from the NW.
We may see some late-day and evening cloudiness, esp across the S,
as the remnant clouds from upstream S-Plains convection tracks SE
with the thermal wind across SC and S NC, but we should remain dry
given the lack of opportunity for low level return flow. Thicknesses
are projected to stay below normal, so expect highs in the 70s to
near 80, followed by lows mostly in the 50s.

Sun/Sun night: Shower/storm chances will increase by late Sun, as
the northern stream low over Maine on Sat drifts E, weakening our
mid level flow. This should allow the frontal zone to nudge back N
into NC, while a surface low instigated by a passing MCV and
tracking along the front acts on increasing PW to support rain
chances, highest across the S and SE late in the evening and into
the early overnight hours, although this timing could change with
time and newer model runs. Increasing clouds and light precip
arriving in the afternoon from the west should limit heating esp
across the N, so expect high in the 70s over most of the CWA, except
some low 80s SE, although these readings depend on how far N the
front gets into the CWA. Lows in the low 50s N to low 60s SE.

Mon-Thu: While it`s unlikely to be raining all of time, pops are
expected to be greater than climatology from Memorial Day through
Tue night, as a northern stream trough gradually deepens over the
Dakotas and Upper Midwest resulting in weak cyclonic flow across the
mid and lower Miss Valley, Mid South, and Carolinas, which will
allow for increasing influence by upstream perturbations and MCVs
amidst increasing PW to 1.5-2.0". After the high rain chances Sun
night, there may be a brief lull in pops Mon morning into the
afternoon, but the uptick in dynamic forcing for ascent and
deepening moisture should support good chance to likely pops late
Mon through at least Tue evening. As surface high pressure continues
to extend into the area Mon, we could see a decent CAD event which
would keep temps quite cool, esp over the Piedmont, and will have
highs there Mon around 70 to the lower 70s (and this may not be cool
enough), with mid-upper 70s far SE. With the high rain chances to
reinforcing stability Tue and a gradual exit of the parent high off
the Mid Atlantic coast, the wedge regime is likely to last through
Tue, especially if a surface low develops along the wedge front as
some models depict, which would enhance the NE flow into the
Piedmont. Expect highs again around 70/low 70s (at best) in the NW,
with upper 70s/low 80s SE. Model solutions with the overall pattern
start to diverge markedly by mid week, particularly with the Upper
Midwest low, with some easing it eastward over the Great Lakes,
resulting in an accelerating and increasingly cyclonic flow
spreading E into the Carolinas, while others hold it over the Upper
Midwest and shear its energy E into the Northeast states. Will have
low-confidence near-climo pops Wed/Thu for now, with temps heading
back closer to normal. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected in the next 24 hours as mid and high
clouds stream across the region as an upper level trough shifts
across the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Windy conditions should settle down
after the sunsets, but until then expect 15-25kts gusts with
westerly winds of 5-15kts overnight. Gusts are expected to pick up
again in the morning generally ranging from 20-25kts.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions expected through Saturday night. Shower
and thunderstorms and associated sub-VFR restrictions return Sunday
into early next week.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA/CBL