989
FXUS62 KRAH 231038
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
637 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will continue to extend into the region from
the northeast today and tonight. A weak area of low pressure will
track along and just off the coast of the Carolinas on Sunday,
before a cold front moves through the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 224 AM Saturday...

Seasonable and dry weather expected to dominate again today and
tonight.

The upper trough over the SE states will remain nearly stationary
today and tonight. The main surface front associated with this
feature will also remain to our west and south, suppressed by the
high pressure located off the New England coast that will extend
southwest into NC. Thus, the main moisture axis will remain to our
south and west limiting our chance of showers. It appears central NC
will continue to be in an area of no QPF with a slight chance of
mainly late PM showers only in the SE Coastal Plain. Highs are
expected to remain about 5 degrees below normal for this date.
Expect partly sunny skies with mostly high level cloudiness
associated with the mid/upper trough. We will likely see partly
cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 60s (near 70 SE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 AM Saturday...

Mostly day weather to continue over the interior of NC, with a
chance of a shower or storm  mainly in the NW and SE.

A weak surface low is expected to track NE along the coast Sunday.
This occurs as the next mid/upper trough approaches from the
northwest. Central NC will likely remain in a subsistence region
with a notable lack of showers as the moisture will be confined to
the coast with the coastal wave and in the mountains with the
approach of the cold front late in the day. There is a low chance of
a shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the western Piedmont late Sunday
into Sunday evening, and in the SE Coastal Plain. Otherwise, only a
very isolated chance. Highs will be warmer Sunday with some
additional sunshine and partly sunny skies. Expect mostly highs in
the mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

* Unseasonably cool and dry conditions through the work week.

* Isolated showers/storms possible east of I-95 on Monday.

An unseasonably deep, but broad, long wave trough centered over
eastern Ontario and extending down through the Lower TN Valley will
gradually shift eastward through Wed. Continued perturbations
rippling through the backside of the trough will keep general
troughing over the eastern CONUS through the forecast period.

A departing coastal low on Mon will result in the first surge of
northwesterly surface winds and provide downsloping drying of
surface dew points, but likely minimal cooling, especially along and
east of I-95. Model guidance is fairly consistent that a tight
moisture gradient and convergence axis will still be positioned
somewhere over the eastern Carolinas Mon afternoon/evening. This
boundary may be a focal point for isolated showers/storms. Hi-res
model guidance is limited at this time range, but the 18z runs of
the REFS, ECMWF, and NAM have QPF swaths in proximity to this
boundary within a still warm/moist airmass characterized by 1000-
2000 SBCAPE and around 25 kts of 0-6km shear. With kinematic
profiles primarily unidirectional through 6 km, weakly organized
multicells would be possible. Most guidance keeps this threat east
of central NC, but with predominantly southwest to west flow aloft,
it wouldn`t be too surprising to see this boundary location trend
westward and towards the I-95 corridor in subsequent model runs.

Mon night through Fri: An expansive area of Canadian high pressure
centered over the northern/central Plains Mon evening will continue
to build eastward and eventually over the Mid-Atlantic by Thurs.
Well below normal temperatures, drier air through the thermodynamic
profile, and minimal precipitation chances will likely prevail
through the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 637 AM Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions should prevail through 12z/Sunday. However,
a light east flow should allow for IFR to MVFR CIGs at INT/GSO
for a period between 12z and 14z today. These CIGS should lift to
VFR by late morning. Another chance of MVFR cigs will come tonight,
especially from FAY to RWI after 09z.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the weekend.
A cold front may bring a brief shower Sunday. Then VFR conditions
are expected Sunday night into mid next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett