146
FXUS62 KRAH 052009
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
409 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will track slowly east northeast across
southern and eastern NC through Friday morning. A series of mid and
upper-level disturbances will overspread and interact with a frontal
zone that will settle into and stall over NC this weekend through
early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 405 PM Thursday...

Weak, 1015 mb low pressure centered over Scotland Co. at 20Z will
move very slowly ewd to the Outer Banks vicinity through 12Z Fri.
The threat of both heavy/flooding rain and an isolated tornado will
continue along/near the track of the low through the Sandhills and
srn-cntl Coastal Plain through early this evening. Areas of mainly
light, stratiform rain otherwise and elsewhere will gradually taper
off through the same time, as the frontal low and forcing move ewd.
In its wake, widespread low overcast, and areas of fog over the nw
through srn Piedmont, will prevail overnight, with low temperatures
in the 60s.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025/

Sensible weather impacts of a wet and cooler than average day
remain, along with a risk of heavy rain and isolated flooding.

The greatest flooding risk in the next few hours will accompany a
925 mb low and related compact, deformation band of rain responsible
for 1-1.25"/hr amounts now pivoting across Rowan and Davidson Co.
This area of heavy rain will likely continue to affect Davidson Co.
then downstream into Randolph and Chatham, and possibly adjacent srn
portions of Guilford and Alamance and nrn Stanly, Montgomery, and
Moore. Co through ~19Z. Additional, heavy and convective rain may
materialize just downstream of the low through the rest of the
Sandhills, ern Piedmont, and srn and cntl Coastal Plain, where
scattered to locally numerous convection now developing across nern
SC and sern NC may tend to slow and converge through the afternoon.

Isolated tornado potential appears more limited in the latest model
guidance, mostly related to a weaker and slightly farther swd track
of a weak, 1017 mb surface low over n-cntl SC at 15Z, which will
will move very slowly enewd and probably across srn through ern NC
through tonight. The relatively greatest, non-zero risk of a quick
spin-up will exist immediately ahead of the surface low, where
surface winds will remain backed with a significant ely component
and where effective SRH will be maximized perhaps as high as 100-150
m2/s2.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

Generally low amplitude, quasi-zonal/wly mid to upr-level flow will
prevail from the srn Plains to the srn Middle Atlantic. An embedded,
convectively-amplified mid-level trough will move enewd and across
the mid MS Valley early Fri and OH Valley and cntl Appalachians Fri
afternoon and night, with associated, weak 10-30 meter/12hr 500 mb
height falls that will glance cntl NC Fri night.

At the surface, weak, 1013 mb low pressure over the Outer Banks Fri
morning will move slowly enewd and offshore, while deepening by
several millibars. A trailing, weak frontal zone will likely retreat
slowly nwd over nern NC and srn VA, while a lee trough will develop
over the srn Middle Atlantic wrn Piedmont.

Clearing behind the departing low, except for some lingering low
clouds on the cool side of the aforementioned frontal zone over the
far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain will allow for strong diurnal
heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F. That heating of a seasonably
moist airmass characterized by surface dewpoints mostly in the
mid/upr 60s will yield moderate destabilization and weakening
convective inhibition, such that scattered convection may develop
invof the lee trough (ie. nw Piedmont) and over the mountains, and
possibly along the retreating frontal zone, despite generally
neutral height tendency and a lack of background forcing for ascent.
SOme of that activity may drift sewd across the remainder of the
Piedmont and Sandhills through the evening, before dissipating. Some
additional, weakening upstream convection, influenced by the
convectively-amplified mid-level trough, may subsequently move east
of the mountains and into the nrn Piedmont early Sat morning. It
will otherwise be quite mild and humid, with lows within a few
degrees either side of 70 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

* general mid and upper-level troughing across the eastern U.S.
  through mid week along with a moist and unstable environment will
  result in a period of greater than average precipitation chances.
* Rain chances will be maximized during the afternoon and evening,
  especially on Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Stronger deep layer flow should support an increased risk of
  stronger storms on Sunday and perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday.

Saturday will likely be the better day for outdoor activities this
weekend as guidance suggests a little less convection than
previously expected. Convection across the TN Valley on Friday night
will likely weaken as it moves east with the remnants moving into
western and northern NC on Saturday morning and dissipating. While
cloud cover may be increased, rain chances would appear limited
through the early to mid afternoon hours. The convective remnants
may be a contributor to convective redevelopment during the
afternoon and evening, likely across eastern and southern areas.

Rain chances increase on Sunday as a shortwave trough across the OH
Valley and an associated cold front drop into the region. With dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, favorable lapse rates,
moderately instability and enhanced flow, there is a risk of strong
to severe storms primarily during the afternoon and evening.

Brief shortwave ridging on Monday ahead of the next trough should
result in a bit of a lull or reduced threat of showers and storms. A
stronger mid and upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes and
the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday with an associated cold front
and enhanced flow spreading into our region. This will likely result
in another period of showers and storms with high PoPs and a threat
of strong to severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. The troughing
moves offshore and some weak ridging builds into the Southeast on
Thursday resulting in a diminished risk of showers and storms on
Thursday.

Temperatures are likely to range near to above normal during the
period. Highs should be the warmest on Saturday and Monday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as there is apt to be a lull in
convection and perhaps cloud cover. Heat index values these days
will range in the 90s with some upper 90s possible across the
southeast areas. Otherwise highs will range in the 80s to around 90.
-Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...

IFR-MVFR restrictions and rain, and convection (showers/storms)
mainly at FAY, will accompany an area of low pressure that will
track across cntl and ern NC through early tonight. Deep layer
clearing behind the low later tonight-Fri morning will result in the
development of fog and low overcast at INT/GSO, and probably an
otherwise lowering of existing ceilings into LIFR range elsewhere,
through Fri morning. Lifting and scattering of that shallow low-
level moisture will favor a return to VFR conditions between 13-15Z
Fri.

Outlook: A good chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers/
storms will accompany a frontal zone that will settle into and
linger over NC through early to mid next week. Areas of morning
fog/stratus will also be possible, particularly where rain occurs
the previous afternoon-evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...MWS