692
FXUS62 KRAH 130626
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
225 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An outflow-reinforeced, backdoor front will dissipate over eastern
and central VA and NC through Monday. Sub-tropical high pressure
will otherwise extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout
the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

* Marginal risk of isolated damaging winds into this evening for
  areas mainly west of US-1
* Excessive rainfall possible nearly anywhere this evening, but
  widespread flooding potential not expected

Temperatures should continue to climb into the late afternoon hours
with highs topping out in the low to middle 90s. A few locales
across portions of the Triangle and Sandhills could briefly reach
heat indices of 104-105, but this is not expected to be prolonged.

As for storm chances into this evening, model guidance and ensemble
data suggest two primary focus areas, one over the eastern part of
the state, and a second across the mountains. The former may be tied
to a developing sea-breeze pushing inland with resultant outflows.
The latter across the mountains appears tied to a weak surface
trough  situated in western NC. Both of these areas will be the
focus for convergence for storm development. It would appear storms
across the mountains will be more widespread, with some of those
reaching the Triad and western Piedmont this evening, dying off by
late evening due to loss of heating. Regardless, resultant outflows
from either forcing areas could produce an isolated or scattered
storm or two over central NC into late evening with modest buoyancy
over 2000 J/kg. Overall coverage appears limited. Shear is weak, but
mesoanalysis and point forecast soundings suggest high DCAPE over
1000 J/kg, supportive of wet microbursts and resultant damaging
winds, especially west of US-1. While widespread flooding potential
is not expected, rain that falls over still saturated soils, mainly
in the Piedmont, will be favorable for isolated flash flooding.

After any storms die out later this evening, some patchy fog is
possible over areas that saw rain, with lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Sunday...

A weak surface trough will move across the area Monday resulting in
scattered to numerous showers and storms. The best chance for storms
will be in the afternoon and continuing through much of the evening
and some of the overnight hours. Microbursts with damaging wind
gusts could be possible within these storms. PW values will be above
average around 2 which will continue the threat for heavy rain and
flash flooding. WPC has all of Central NC in a marginal threat for
Flash Flooding Monday. While SPC has not introduced any threat above
general thunderstorms yet, MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2200 J/kg could
warrant a few localized severe storms. Temperatures will be in the
low to mid 90s with one more day oh heat indices in the low 100s
across the Triangle region. Lows overnight will be in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM Sunday...

Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with the trough exiting the area
and a weak cold front dipping down into the area. A few isolated
morning showers will turn into numerous to widespread storms, again
some could be severe. WPC has all of Central NC in a marginal risk
for Flash Flooding as some storms could be slow moving and produce
heavy rain at times. The front is expected fizzle out west of the
area as weak high pressure tries to build in mid week. Afternoon
diurnally driven scattered showers and storms will be possible each
afternoon and early evening through the rest of the forecast period.
Over the weekend another trough develops thus, expect increased
precip chances Friday- Sunday especially in the afternoon and
evening hours.  Temperatures in the long term will range in the
upper upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

A convective outflow-reinforced, backdoor front, now stretching in
an arc from near LYH to RDU to EWN ,will focus areas of fog and low
stratus on its cool side this morning (ie. from nern NC through cntl
and ern VA), including primarily at RWI. Some may reach, briefly, as
far wwd as RDU around 12Z. Scattered aft-eve convection with heavy
rain, strong downburst wind, and brief flight restrictions can
otherwise be expected by 18-20Z.

Outlook: Areas of morning stratus and fog will be favored along and
on the cool side of a backdoor front that will dissipate over ern
and cntl NC and VA through Mon. Sub-tropical high pressure over the
western and swrn N. Atlantic will otherwise favor a typical
summertime regime of scattered aft-eve convection and patchy
fog/stratus, with the latter likely to shift from the Coastal Plain
(ie. RWI and FAY) early week to the wrn Piedmont and Foothills (ie.
GSO/INT) by mid-week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS