594
FXUS62 KRAH 011745
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of cold fronts will move south across the region today and
this evening. Much cooler Canadian high pressure will follow and
extend across the middle Atlantic states this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Friday...

*  Pockets of Heavy Rain and Isolated Severe Storms remains possible
   this afternoon and evening, particularly across southern portions
   of the forecast area

Overview: Complex meteorological setup today, with lower than average
confidence in the coverage and intensity of afternoon and evening
storms. Multiple weak sfc boundaries are likely draped across the
region. However, a more prominent boundary---currently aligned along
highway 64 and marked by a thicker layer of low clouds and stratus
north, with shallower cloud features to the south---appears to be
the primary effective front. The greatest concern for isolated
severe storms and locally heavy rainfall is expected to remain south
of this boundary where strong destabilization of 2000-3000 J/KG of
MLCAPE is forecast.

Flooding Potential: PWATs 2.3"-2.5"(98-99th percentile) combined
with moderate to strong destablization instability, will support
heavy rainfall rates. Isolated/pockets of flash flooding will be
most likely in urban/poor drainage areas, mainly across southern NC.

Severe Weather Potential: Weak shear and modest mid-level lapse
rates aloft will limit storm organization. However, strong
precipitation loading in deep updrafts and or cell collisions may
trigger isolated wet downbursts, again mainly across southern NC.
The severe threat appears greatest between 4-8 pm.

While areas north of the front may also see scattered to numerous
showers and storms, a more stable, overcast low cloud deck is likely
to limit both convective coverage and intensity in those areas.

High Temperatures: Daytime highs will depend on the evolution of the
widespread multi-layer cloud cover across the area and subsequent
convective development. Either way expect a sharp north to south
temperature gradient ranging from near 80 north to lower 90s SE.

Late this evening and overnight: Rain chances will taper off from
north to south as the front sinks south of the area, with some
lingering showers possible across the far southern zones as
widespread stratus develops within the NELY low-level flow.
Noticeably cooler and drier air will filter into overnight. Lows
ranging 65-70 F, coolest across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

* Cooler and mostly cloudy within the summer-time wedge of high
  pressure.

The leading edge of the cold front will be well south of the area by
Sat morning and situated off the Carolina coast and extending
westward through GA and AL. Seasonably strong surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes will weaken as it spreads out across the
Northeast. This cooler Canadian high pressure will extend down
through the area in a hybrid CAD fashion, providing a steady supply
of cooler and drier air as the surface. Morning low overcast and
perhaps some light drizzle over western NC may leak eastward into
the Triad through daybreak, supplied by weak mesoscale lift atop the
still saturated cool airmass at the surface. This is expected to
gradually weaken as another northeasterly surge shifts this regime
farther southwest and out of the area by mid-afternoon.

Some clearing skies with diurnal cumulus will be possible from the
Triangle eastward while the western Piedmont may replace the eroding
low clouds with a steady stream of mid/upper level clouds from
convection across the Southeast. Highs will be tricky and dependant
on the erosion of low-clouds and drizzle in the western Piedmont.
Current forecast keeps mid/upper 70s in the Triad and low 80s, but
guidance that holds onto this drizzle/overcast longest suggest the
Triad may stay in the 60s all day. Lows will be slightly below
normal in the 60s areawide.

&&.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

* Long-duration cool weather expected with below normal temperatures
  through Friday.

* Best rain chances come Tuesday into Wednesday.

Surface high pressure over the northern Mid-Atlantic will be
replaced by another area of Canadian high pressure over the
Northeast and will favor north-northeasterly flow over the region
throughout the forecast period. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to develop along the stalled boundary over the western
Atlantic and further lock in the northerly flow over the area. This
will persist the below normal temperatures through the forecast
period with gradual modification expected Thurs into Fri as the high
begins to shift further east and Bermuda high pressure begins to
influence the region.

Precipitation chances will be fairly limited until Tues into Wed
when broad troughing over the Mississippi Valley subtly sharpens and
extends weakly perturbed southwesterly flow over the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Instability appears limited and may be an
area of stratiform rain with some embeded showers/storms at it
progresses through the area. Diurnal showers/storms become more
likely Thurs and Fri as we lose influence from the surface high to
the north.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

VFR will give way to areas of IFR-MVFR stratus before 15z. This low
stratus will develop along and north of the first of a couple of
cold fronts that will move through cntl NC today into this
evening. Associated ceilings will gradually lift through MVFR and
scatter to VFR from late morning through mid-afternoon, probably
first at FAY and INT and last at RWI and RDU. The best chance of
showers/storms will likely accompany the lead cold front as it moves
near and south of KINT/KGSO/KRDU during the mid to late afternoon,
reaching KFAY around 23z, or so. Low stratus is expected again this
evening into the overnight, with some scattered showers or light
rain still possible.

Outlook: Mainly IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist into Sat,
followed by a return to generally VFR conditions late Sat-Sun.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett/MWS