600
FXUS62 KRAH 041453
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1050 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region from the north
through Saturday. An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast is
expected to drift northward and bring wet weather to the central and
eastern Carolinas Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM Friday...

* Not as humid but still heat indices in the 90s
* Low chances of storms in the southern Coastal Plain

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. According to
the latest surface analysis, the high centered near Lk Ontario
continues to nose southward into the NC Piedmont, with dewpoints
across our N and W in the 60s (even a couple of upper 50s in the far
N), while readings in the 70s linger across our SE. Low level
moisture is quite sparse across the region according to 12z upper
air analyses, and with little to no moisture advection taking place
today, expect just partly cloudy skies at most, mainly over the SE
half. Still on track for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, close to
seasonal normals. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 130 AM: Ridging over the mid-section of the
country and troughing near ME will promote a northerly flow today at
mid-levels. High pressure over the northern Mid-Atlantic and NE US
will nose down today and tonight, with NE flow. Lower dewpoint air
will filter down from the north, where some guidance suggests upper
50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints for portions of the area. The exception
is over the Coastal Plain and Sandhills where lingering moisture
will keep dewpoints a tad higher. Highs will reach the upper 80s to
low 90s. Even with the lower dewpoint air, heat indices should still
be in the mid/upper 90s from the Triangle south so appropriate heat
safety is still warranted for the holiday. There is a low-end chance
of a few isolated storms in the eastern Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain today into early evening along a lingering moisture
gradient and where a weak perturbation is at mid-levels. Activity
looks rather sparse, however, in the CAM guidance. Lows tonight will
be closer to average in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Less humid and more comfortable conditions
* Slight uptick in scattered shower/storm chances along/east of I-95

High pressure over the NE US will gradually shift off the coast late
Sat. At the same time, we will be watching the weak area of low
pressure that NHC is monitoring east of Jacksonville, FL that is
forecast to be somewhere off the coast of SC by early Sun. The two
pressure systems will again promote an ENE flow. Dewpoints are
forecast to be lower still relative to Fri, promoting heat indices
only in the upper 80s to around 90. It should feel more comfortable,
even with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. There will be a
slightly better chance of some isolated to scattered storms in the
day and evening, mainly for areas along/east of I-95. Moisture
transport north of the approaching low is set to increase into Sun
morning. Ridging during the day, however, should keep the best
chances mainly south and east of the Triangle. Increasing cloud
cover and the higher rain chances by Sun should favor warmer lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2550 AM Wednesday...

* A low pressure area developing near the FL/GA coast is expected to
  drift north and move across the eastern Carolinas on Sunday into
  Monday. The main impact for central NC will be increased rain
  chances on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night into Monday,
  especially across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills.

* Otherwise, temperatures, humidity and chances of mainly afternoon
  and evening storms increase for Monday through Thursday with
  Tuesday and Wednesday the hottest days of the period and the best
  chance of showers and storms on Wednesday and especially Thursday.

A surface low organizing east of Jacksonville, Florida is expected
to lift north and the latest guidance suggests that the low center
will move onshore across the eastern SC or southern NC coast on
Sunday. Global ensembles suggest two camps for the storm motion with
those that have a weaker system moving it more slowly and perhaps
more westward while the members with a modestly stronger/deeper
system moving it a little faster northeast. The trend over the last
24 hours is for a slightly more organized system that perhaps moves
a little further inland across the NC Coastal Plain late Sunday into
Monday.

The NHC notes a 60% chance of a system developing and this is
largely semantics, as the impacts will largely be the same with
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon and
evening continuing into Monday with the greatest rain coverage
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. The overall pattern suggests
that precipitation would be skewed near and right of the low track.
While some showers and storms will spread into the Piedmont, expect
coverage to be somewhat limited near and especially west of U.S.
route 1. Given the modest low pressure area, dont expect any wind
issues but the inland penetration of the attendant coastal trough
could introduce a risk of locally heavy rain and a few stronger
convective cells across eastern areas. With considerable cloudiness,
highs should be tempered a bit on Sunday and range in the mid 80s
although if the cloud shield is confined across eastern areas, highs
could reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the western Piedmont and
Triad.

The forecast for Monday is somewhat uncertain and largely dependent
on the evolution and motion of the surface low. With many ensemble
members suggesting the system could be moving away from central NC
by midday Monday, Monday could end up a nice day with limited storm
chances during the afternoon and evening. A slower motion could
result in an unsettled day, especially across eastern locations.
Will need to wait and see.

A gradual evolution to weak eastern U.S. troughiness occurs for
Tuesday through Thursday resulting in an increasing risk for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest risk on
Wednesday into Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be with hottest
days of the period with highs in the lower 90s across the area. With
dewpoints persisting in the lower and possibly mid 70s, afternoon
heat index values will peaking around 100 in much of the area with a
few low 100s in the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Highs will back off
a bit on Thursday as increased cloud cover and rain chances results
in highs in the upper 80s to around 90. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some
gusts to 15-18 kt are possible today from the northeast. Also,
cannot rule out a stray shower or storm near FAY today, but
confidence remains too low to include at this time. Some guidance
suggests a low-end chance of MVFR stratus near FAY Sat morning. Will
hold off on any mention in the forecast until better agreement can
be reached.

After 06Z Saturday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat, though a better chance of storms are favored near FAY
Sat aftn/eve. A potential tropical system could bring unsettled
weather to the terminals Sun into Mon, along with gusty winds. More
diurnally driven showers and storms are favored by Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Kren