557
FXUS62 KRAH 171308
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
908 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross NC today, then stall to our south tonight.
Cooler and drier high pressure will extend into the region on Sunday
and Monday. The front will lift north across the Carolinas as a warm
front on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 908 AM Saturday...

Remnant convective line and outflow has largely dissipated across
the area this morning, with mainly stratiform rain across the Triad.
The environment is marginally supportive of severe weather but with
increased cloud cover across area, the widespread convective threat
appears to have ended. As such we`ve ended the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch a few hours early.

Warm/humid airmass will remain in place across the Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain today. An early look at the 12Z RAP/HRRR
suggest some isolated development in these areas later this
afternoon coincident with peak heating and the arrival of the
synoptically driven cold front, but otherwise the rest of the area
looks unfavorable for additional storms later today.

Highs will range from the relatively comfortable mid 80s in the NW
(dewpoints in the upper 50s), to the typically warm/muggy lower 90s
(dewpoints around 70). Lows area-wide will range from the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Saturday...

* Warm, but drier with gusty northwesterly winds during the
  afternoon.

Sunday will likely be largely quiet behind the frontal passage from
Saturday night. The incoming airmass isn`t particularly much cooler,
but it will be noticeably drier as dew points drop into the mid 50s.
Momentum just above a shallow inversion Sun morning will quickly mix
out and produce some gusty winds 15 to 25 mph as temperatures rise
into the 80s, near 90 degrees across the NC/SC border. Convective
debris and remnant MCVs from upstream storms riding the now
stationary front to our south, should result in a mostly cloudy day
as multi-layered clouds stream across the area. Lows will settle in
the 60s outside of the far northern Piedmont where upper 50s will be
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Saturday...

* A sharpening warm front lifting trough the forecast area will
  bring unsettled weather through Wednesday.

* Cooler and drier weather expected Thursday and Friday behind a
  cold frontal passage late Wednesday.

A couple mid-level closed lows situated over the northern Plains and
the Northeast will create broad shortwave ridging from the Gulf
coast up through the Great Lakes and extend out over the Southeast.
The stalled boundary over GA/SC Mon morning is expected to ripple
northward through the late afternoon, but how far north is fairly
uncertain. South of this front will exist a moderately unstable
airmass where dew points in the mid 60s will contribute to 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE.  Most deterministic guidance has a convective
induced disturbance riding the ridge Mon afternoon and into the
Southeast by peak heating with enhanced westerlies contributing to
30 to 40 kts of 0-6km shear. The position of the front rippling
northward Mon afternoon will delineate the northward expect of
showers/storms through Mon evening.

By Tues morning, the warm front will continue to lift further into
our area and sharpen as it meets a backdoor front sliding down
through the Mid-Atlantic. Frontogenetic forcing and strengthening
WAA aloft will contribute to blossoming area of rain and embedded
showers/storms along and north of this front Tues evening and
overnight. This regime should slowly lift into VA into Wed morning
which may lead to a brief lull is precipitation until a cold frontal
passage brings another rounds of showers and potential storms.

Noticeably cooler air will spread into the southern Mid-Atlantic
behind this frontal passage with its source region stemming from
central Quebec where a maritime Polar airmass is progged to located.
Cooler and mostly drier weather is expected to continue through
Friday where highs are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 AM Saturday...

A band of showers and thunderstorms that moved across the OH and TN
Valleys on Friday afternoon moved across the mountains overnight and
has spread into the western Piedmont of VA and NC. This band of
convection will continue to move east through the mid morning hours.
Rain has already moved into the Triad and the leading edge of the
showers and storms should reach the Triangle area by 12 to 14Z. The
convection will likely weaken to just showers as they move into the
Fayetteville and Rocky Mount areas as just showers between 13 and
16Z. After the initial band of convection shifts southeast of the
area, generally VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon. West
winds will increase during the day with winds of 15 kts and gusts of
25 to 35 kts at times late this morning and this afternoon. Fair
weather is expected tonight with winds becoming light westerly at 5
to 10 kts.

Periods of LLWS are possible this evening as surface winds relax but
a strong westerly low level jet of around 50kts promotes LLWS
conditions mainly from Raleigh eastward up until around midnight.

Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period: Mainly fair weather is
expected for Sunday and into Monday with a threat of mainly
afternoon and evening storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of late
night and early morning low stratus and fog is possible on Tuesday
and especially Wednesday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes