004
FXUS62 KRAH 080519
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
119 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  The best chance of showers and thunderstorms appears to be
   Saturday into Sunday as a slow moving cold front moves into the
   region. There is a chance Friday, but the chances really ramp up
   Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 108 AM Tuesday...

1) Hot 90+ degree temperatures return Thursday and Friday. A slow
moving cold front will bring a good shot at showers and
thunderstorms and much needed rain/cooler temperatures, especially
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 108 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot temperatures return mid through late week. A
slow moving cold front will bring a good shot at showers and
thunderstorms and much needed rain/cooler temperatures, especially
over the weekend.

It appears widespread 90+ degree temperatures will return Thursday
and Friday as surface high pressure will be offshore and the
mid/upper level ridging will shift to the SE states. It appears the
hottest day will likely be Thursday under the ridge. A break in the
ridge and a developing Ohio Valley to central Appalachians trough
will approach Friday lowering mid level heights enough so that the
temperatures may back off a few degrees. Expect lower to mid 90s
on Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday. These temperatures
will back off considerably this weekend as the upper trough develops
over the Ohio into the TN valley region increasing moisture,
cloudiness. and likely showers/storms over the weekend. Expect highs
in the 80s except around 90 in the SE.

The aforementioned approaching trough will also be accompanied by a
pre-frontal trough and a surface front (or two). These features
should allow for a likelihood 60-70 percent chance of mainly PM
showers/storms both Saturday and Sunday. We will update any severe
threat in upcoming forecasts. At the moment, it appears wind shear
may be lacking but instability will be high.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 AM Tuesday...

Aside from a small chance of shallow radiation fog/mist at RWI due
to local effects, VFR conditions and calm to light ely surface winds
will persist through tonight, influenced by high pressure
progressing across and offshore the Middle Atlantic.

Outlook:  A frontal zone will settle into NC Fri, then become quasi-
stationary while weakening through Sat, during which time a chance
of convection and associated flight restrictions will result.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett
AVIATION...MWS