063
FXUS62 KRAH 202311
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
711 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 711 PM Sunday...

1) Dry weather overnight, low level moisture on the increase
with patchy dense fog in some areas late.

2) An approaching cold front will bring the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday, followed by a chance
for heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

3) Cold-air damming will develop by the middle of the
week, bringing several days of well below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 711 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Most of the scattered showers and thunderstorms have
died off to our west and north. Dry weather is expected overnight.
However, there will be a slow increase in the low level moisture
through the late night and sunrise. Surface dew points are expected
to reach 70+ at most locations by 12z, with lower 70s by 15z/Monday.
There is a chance of patchy dense fog later tonight especially in
the Coastal Plain and possibly the eastern Piedmont.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An approaching cold front will bring the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday, followed by a chance
for heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

As a cold front slowly moves south across the Appalachians,
Monday should be the last day with widespread upper 80 and 90 degree
temperatures across central North Carolina. Although Monday morning
will start off sunny, as the front begins to drop to the south,
cloud cover will increase and showers/storms will begin to fire
early in the afternoon along the VA/NC border. The greatest chance
for rain will be along the state border, although most locations
will have at least some chance for rain, particularly in the
evening. The wind shear that could provide better organization for
thunderstorms should remain to the north across Virginia, although
MUCAPE locally will range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. There will still
be the potential for some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
across central North Carolina, particularly to the west of US-1. The
most likely timing for severe thunderstorms should be between 2-6pm
with the threat coming from damaging winds. In addition, cannot rule
out the potential for some flash flooding near and around the Triad
with the urban environment allowing for a better chance of excessive
rainfall occurring.

With the front moving south into North Carolina Monday night into
Tuesday, that will put the forecast area onto the cool side of the
boundary, which should reduce/eliminate the chance for severe
weather on Tuesday. However, widespread rainfall is expected, and
along the cool side of the boundary, high rainfall rates will still
be possible, with the entire area will be under a marginal (level 1
of 4) risk for excessive rainfall, primarily Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cold-air damming will develop by the middle of the
week, bringing several days of well below normal temperatures.

With the front slipping to the south of the area late Tuesday,
a ridge of high pressure will extend south into the Carolinas from a
strong high that will remain over Quebec for several days. While
models are coming into better agreement that a low pressure system
will develop off the Atlantic coast Thursday and move north, there
is good model agreement that a sustained period of northeast wind
and widespread cloud cover will occur Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday will be the first full day of fall, and it will feel like
it - locations north and west of I-85 are unlikely to rise out of
the 60s both Wednesday and Thursday, with the rest of the area only
rising into the 70s. Widespread light rain is likely on Wednesday,
with conditions beginning to dry out on Thursday. The pattern, both
with temperature and precipitation, should begin to moderate for
Friday through Sunday, primarily based on model predictions of the
Atlantic low moving towards New England and pushing the ridge of
high pressure to the west. The end of this week looks to favor
mostly sunny skies, minimal chances for rainfall, and highs in the
70s. Roxboro could see its temperature dip into the 40s on Saturday
morning for the first time in several months.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 711 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday: VFR conditions will prevail across central NC
through this evening. There is a good chance of fog (MVFR to IFR) at
KRDU/KFAY and KRWI between 09z and 13z as low level moisture
increases. The areas of fog will burn off and reveal VFR conditions
mid to late Monday morning. Generally MVFR to VFR cigs are expected
Monday afternoon. There is a chance of showers/storms, especially in
the NW at KGSO/KINT.

Outlook: A cold front approaching late Monday will bring a
better chance of showers and storms to the entire area late Monday
into Tuesday. Unsettled weather may persist under a CAD-regime
developing Tuesday-Wednesday, where periods of sub-VFR stratus and
fog may exist into late week, especially each early morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco/Green
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco