981
FXUS62 KRAH 162348
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
748 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions are expected into early next week as high pressure
returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

* Isolated storms into early evening
* Fog development favorable tonight along/east of US-1

Morning stratus mainly along and east of US-1 has lifted with
daytime heating. The offshore low will slowly work its way a bit
further to the east over the Atlantic. As it does so, high pressure
off the New England coast will extend into the area overnight. That
will advect in some drier air at low-levels and favor fog
development, some locally dense, mainly over the eastern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain Sun morning as the surface moisture
remains somewhat trapped from earlier clouds.

As for convective chances this afternoon and evening, the CAMs
suggest the best chance across our Coastal Plain counties, though
cannot rule out an isolated storm nearly anywhere. Satellite shows a
horseshoe shape in convective coverage, with some agitated cumulus
over the western Piedmont with a few showers popping up, and also
over the Coastal Plain tied to convergence with the offshore low.
Lows tonight a touch cooler in the mid 60s NE to around 70 in the
southwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

* Overall quiet weather, but cannot rule out a stray storm over the
  northwest

Overall quiet weather is favored for Sun. At the surface, high
pressure out of eastern Canada will push a cold front south into
portions of the central Mid-Atlantic by early Mon. Meanwhile, it
appears a weak surface trough will be oriented SW to NE along the
Appalachians of VA/NC. Aloft, ridging will be over the Mid MS
valley. Perhaps associated with the front, guidance shows a weak
shortwave moving south from VA, reaching perhaps the NC border early
Mon.

Morning fog should lift by mid-morning, with lots of afternoon
sunshine and highs warmer in the low 90s. Some heat indices of 100-
101 are possible in the Piedmont. Guidance suggests dewpoints may
mix out in the east, which could make for a less humid feel east of
US-1. While most of the day/evening will be dry, the HRRR and a few
other solutions indicate a low-end chance of an isolated storm or
two over the northwest Piedmont tied to the surface trough. Lows Sun
night will be warmer in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Saturday...

Monday through Wednesday: Lingering nely flow aloft and generally
near-normal PWAT will promote relatively dry conditions on Monday.
However, weak mid-level vorticity lobes associated with a short-wave
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast could trigger a few isolated
showers/storms Monday afternoon and evening.

A weak front will then approach and wash-out along the NC/VA border
early Tuesday into Wednesday. Nely flow will re-enforce via the
gradient between the strong sfc high off the New England coast and
the well offshore Hurricane Erin. Generally void of upper forcing,
Tuesday should be mostly dry sans isolated convection off the
mountains and or sea breeze. By Wednesday, the shortwave that is
expected to dig into the Mid-Atlantic and help steer Erin north and
away from NC will possibly may send mid-level perturbations across
the NC mountains and Foothills. This could trigger some
afternoon/evening showers/storms especially across western areas.
Overall though, coverage looks limited.

Temperatures from Monday through Wednesday should be generally in
the upper 80s (N) to lower 90s (S).

Thursday through Saturday: While the deep, tropical moisture
associated with Erin will stay well offshore, we should see
increasing chances for rain Thursday and Friday ahead of a sfc cold
front. As of now think the severe potential is limited over the
extended, but will have to keep an eye on Friday as combined
instability and shear could pose an isolated severe risk. The
unsettled weather could linger into the weekend as the front stalls
over central NC. Temperatures in this timeframe should be a bit
cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday/Saturday.

Hurricane Erin`s impacts to central NC should be quite limited
(likely near-zero) as there is good agreement in ensembles that
it`ll stay offshore. However, this system should generate high surf
and rip currents along our coastal waters. As such, make sure to use
caution if venturing to the beaches later this week into the weekend
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 748 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions should prevail over the next several hours. The
remaining showers located in the southern Coastal Plain should exit
the region shortly and will not cause any more flight restrictions
in the CWA. Late tonight, areas of fog should develop in eastern
portions of the CWA. IFR to LIFR visibilities are possible at
RWI/RDU, with a lesser chance at FAY. Most guidance still keeps low
visibilities out of INT/GSO, but it cannot be completely ruled out.
Any fog that develops should lift/dissipate by mid-morning with
daytime heating. After returning to VFR, VFR conditions should
prevail through much of Sunday.

Outlook: There is a chance of an isolated storm in the Triad
terminals Sun evening. Otherwise, VFR should prevail into Monday.
Thereafter, diurnally driven showers and storms are possible,
especially during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
Morning stratus or fog will also be possible each morning, with the
next best chance Tue morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Helock/Kren