947
FXUS62 KRAH 191841
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the central and southern Appalachians will remain
in place through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

High pressure will remain centered over Tennessee. Some passing high
clouds should help keep lows a couple degrees warmer than last
night, ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Undercut tonight`s
temperature guidance slightly using the NBM 10th percentile, and
once again, this leaves Person County as the only area that appears
possible to have frost. In addition, an area of fog appears likely
to develop across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North
Carolina late tonight, and should extend southwest into portions of
the forecast area. Any dense fog should remain out of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...

High pressure continues to dominate the forecast. Any high clouds in
the morning should be from the Triangle to the east, and those
should move east of the region by the afternoon, leaving clear skies
for the rest of the period. Both highs and lows should increase by 1-
2 degrees over today`s values.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

Longwave ridging will continue to dominate the forecast for at least
the first half of the upcoming week across central NC. The week will
start off with a 585-588dm H5 ridge axis extending from the Mid
Atlantic states into the Gulf of Mexico. It will eventually break
down by mid week as a) the upper low presently over Arizona ejects
and sweeps through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and b) a longwave
trough moves through the Great Lakes into the Northeastern US on
Thursday. At the surface, high pressure centered over West Virginia
will move little through Tuesday but will eventually weaken and move
off the Northeast US coast on Wednesday. Sensible weather impacts
during this period should be minimal with above normal temperatures
each day along with dry weather.  Highs in the mid to upper 70s,
lows in the 40s and eventually lower 50s.

There are still some differences among the ensembles with respect to
when the longwave trough and attendant surface cold front will sweep
through NC, and also how quickly this front will retreat back
through the area as a warm front over the weekend. Given today`s
data it would appear the cold front will move through relatively
early in the day Thursday but obviously when this front moves
through NC will drive how warm temperatures can get and how breezy
it will be. Ensemble solutions vary considerably with some showing
highs reaching the upper 60s (faster FROPA) to the lower 80s (slower
FROPA). Some of the faster solutions appear to be outliers so I`ll
continue with a relatively mild temperature forecast on Thursday.
The lack of available moisture ahead of this front supports
maintaining a dry PoP forecast with only a scattering of single
digit values across the area.

While Friday`s temperatures should be within a degree or two of
normal area-wide, Saturday could see highs begin a climb back into
the mid/upper 70s across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain. It
will likely not be until Sunday or Monday of the following week
before temps return to above normal values area-wide as high
pressure re-strengthens off the Southeast US coast.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF
period. The only site where restrictions may occur is RWI - while an
area of fog is expected to develop across southeastern Virginia and
northeastern North Carolina late tonight, it does not appear that it
should expand as far southwest as RWI. However, expansion of fog to
the terminal cannot be ruled out between 10Z-14Z. While FAY and RWI
both had gusts in their 17Z observation, decided to only include
gusts in the FAY TAF because only FAY had neighboring sites that
also were observing gusts.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected through the period,
although RWI could have another morning or two with patchy fog.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Green