292
FXUS62 KRAH 200511
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
111 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered over Maine will extend into the
region through this morning but will retreat north this afternoon.
Hurricane Erin will advance north over the next few days moving just
off and parallel to the Carolina coastline late today and tomorrow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1246 AM Wednesday...

Central NC is currently wedged between Hurricane Erin off the
southeast coast and an upper trough and associated cold front over
the Great Lakes/Midwest region. Under this synoptic setup, nnely sfc
flow continues over our area.  The main concern over the next 24
hours is the potential for pockets of dense fog across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain and perhaps down across the Sandhills through
the early morning commute. The last several runs of the HRRR have
consistently simulated dense fog in these areas (especially across
the NC/VA border). While observations haven`t shown any fog just
yet, we`ll have to monitor the next several hours and possibly may
need to issue a DFA if the HRRR verifies out.

Any lingering fog should dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, expect
mostly dry conditions today with most convection remaining east of
our area. There is a chance for some late day convection trickling
into our Coastal Plain, but this should be rather isolated if any at
all.  Further west, some mountain/foothills convection could also
trickle into our western areas although chances are fairly low.  Any
lingering convection will diminish with loss of heating this
evening.

While the stronger winds associated with Erin will stay to our east,
areas east of I-95 may see a little uptick in flow near sunrise
Thursday (perhaps some 20 to 25 kt gusts at times). Nothing
consequential, but figured it was worth mentioning.

Highs today will peak in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows in the
lower 70s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1246 AM Wednesday...

Hurricane Erin will move north just off the Outer Banks on Thursday,
with generally subsidence behind the system over our area. As such,
expecting primarily dry conditions for much of our CWA Thursday.
CAMs do show some afternoon showers/storms somewhere across the
Coastal Plain (perhaps over MHX/AKQ`s CWAs, less so over us) so will
maintain slight chance POPs Thursday afternoon and evening in the
Coastal Plain.  Similar to Wednesday, CAMs also indicate the
potential for afternoon mountain/foothill convection which could
trickle into our western areas later in the day. Overall though
think chances are relatively low again in this vicinity as well.

Highs Thursday will again reach the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows
near 70 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 111 AM Wednesday...

* Limited rain chances primarily across the western Piedmont through
  Saturday, spreading back over central NC Sunday.

* Turning cooler next week

In the wake of Erin, H5 shortwave troughing will extend across
portions of the Deep South Friday through the weekend. Weak
isentropic ascent associated with this troughing will allow for some
shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday, with the
highest chances (20-30 percent) primarily across the western
Piedmont and Sandhills. Farther north, precip chances will be
limited thanks in large part to high pressure over the Northeast.
Afternoon highs during this period generally reaching the low to mid
80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Increased precip chances look to return area-wide on Sunday as the
southern shortwave trough is drawn northward into NC. There is some
degree of uncertainty w.r.t. Sunday`s weather as some guidance is
taking this shortwave offshore (dry weather across central NC) while
other solutions spread precip into the area from the south.
Ensembles support the latter solution at this stage of the game, so
we`ll stick with the idea of 40-50 PoPs on Sunday. This is all ahead
of a potent long wave trough over the Great Lakes which is forecast
to move through the area on Monday. Isolated showers and storms are
possible as the front moves through the area, with dry weather to
follow Monday night into Tuesday. It will also be cooler and drier
behind the front with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s,
and overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 AM Wednesday...

In addition to the developing IFR stratus deck advecting in from the
northeast, the 00Z HREF and several runs of the HRRR are latching
onto the idea of IFR fog along and west of I-85 later this morning.
Starting to see some IFR vsbys upstream around KRIC and I`ll go
ahead and include a few hours of at least 2SM or lower vsbys at
INT/GSO/RDU. Elsewhere it would seem conditions will favor stratus
over fog. All sites should recover back to VFR by late morning, with
a combination of VFR stratocu and thickening cirrus from Hurricane
Erin across the area.  Additional MVFR/IFR stratus possible again
late tonight.

Precip chances will be minimal across the area today and the TAFs
will remain dry.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions expected across the area through
this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Leins