535
FXUS62 KRAH 171102
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
600 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pacific high pressure will build east over the area through
tonight. The high will move offshore Tuesday ahead of a warm
front and a weakening area of low pressure system
that will track east through the Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

* Cool, Below-Normal Temperatures

* Marginal fire concerns as dry air will stay in place.

An upper-level trough over the Eastern US will quickly lift NE
today. Substantial height rises will overspread the region as
ridging builds in from the southwest. Pacific high pressure settling
over the area will support a brief stint of below-normal
temperatures.

Breezy conditions will develop after sunrise, with NWLY gusts of 15
to 25 mph. Winds will peak through the midday hours, before
gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Highs will range from
the mid/upper 50s across the northeast to lower 60s south.

An unseasonably dry airmass will remain over cntl NC, with afternoon
RH values expected to bottom out into the 15-25 percent range.
However, wind speeds will be much lower than yesterday with the
strongest winds expected to occur during the morning, with the
lowest RHs occurring during peak afternoon heating. Given this poor
temporal overlap, critical fire weather criteria will not be met.
Therefore, will forgo an Increased Fire Danger (IFD) statement at
this time.

Good radiational cooling conditions will set up tonight as the
surface high builds directly overhead. Lows will fall into the lower
to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

* Moderating temperatures

* Light rain overspreads the area Tuesday night

A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Midwest to the Mid-
Atlantic through Tuesday night. Surface high pressure centered over
the area will move offshore by the afternoon. This will allow a warm
front, associated with a weakening sfc wave approaching from the
west, to lift north across the area late in the day.

The day will begin with mostly sunny skies. However, a strong zone
of low and mid-level warm moist air advection will lead to
increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening. Rain is
expected to spread into the area after midnight as a ~90kt upper jet
streak and associated upper divergence overspreads the area.

With the strongest forcing and deepest moisture skirting north of
the area, measurable rain chances should largely remain confined to
areas along and north of Highway 64. Rain amounts are expected to be
light, generally 0.10" or less.

Southerly return flow will allow temperatures to moderate, with
highs back into the lower to upper 60s, warmest across the south.
Overnight lows will be mild, settling in the 40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

As the warm front lifts early Wednesday morning rain chances will
diminish across the region. A few lingering showers across the
northern VA/NC border cant be ruled out but conditions are expected
to significantly improve early Wednesday.  Otherwise, temperatures
are expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the 70s
Wednesday-Friday and lows generally in the 50s with cooler spots in
the upper 40s some nights.

The next frontal system will move across the Mid-Atlantic region
over the weekend but is generally trending drier overall. Latest
models keep much of the rain across the north, but there are a few
outliers that keep a bulk of the rain moving across NC late Friday
night into Saturday. For now kept PoPs ranging from 20-35% late
Friday evening through Saturday afternoon. Lingering moisture sticks
around Saturday evening but NBM shows Sunday to be cloudy cool and
dry.  Sunday and Mondays high temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 60s with some areas reaching 70 across the south.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Daytime heating and mixing will result in some 15-20 kt
northwesterly gusts at the surface from mid morning into the
afternoon today, before quickly diminishing after sunset.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along a frontal
zone that will waver invof NC late Tue into Thu, with any associated
flight restrictions more likely across VA and adjacent far nrn NC.
Another system may affect the area with light rain on Fri night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 200 AM Monday...

An unseasonably dry airmass will remain over cntl NC, with afternoon
RH values expected to bottom out into the 15-25 percent range.
However, wind speeds will be much lower than yesterday with the
strongest winds expected to occur during the morning, with the
lowest RHs occurring during peak afternoon heating. Given this poor
temporal overlap, critical fire weather criteria will not be met.
Therefore, will forgo an Increased Fire Danger (IFD) statement at
this time.

While the airmass will begin to modify in a developing return flow
regime by Tue, NWP guidance are notoriously too fast with the degree
of moisture recovery. As such, minimum RH values will likely again
be critical and mostly between 20-25 percent Tue afternoon, during
which time swly winds will be strongest at 10-15 mph and most
frequently gusty to near 20 mph over the Piedmont.

Additional Increased Fire Danger statements may consequently be
necessary for Mon and Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Danco/MWS
FIRE WEATHER...CBL/Danco/MWS