829
FXUS62 KRAH 290505
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 705 PM Tuesday...

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of central NC
through 100 AM. Main threat damaging wind. Secondary threat
isolated tornado.

2) Dry through Saturday, then unsettled into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 705 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for most of
central NC through 100 AM. Main threat damaging wind. Secondary
threat isolated tornado.

There continues to be an isolated tornado threat within a
larger area of damaging thunderstorm wind threat as new storms
develop into north-central NC. There continues to be a low level
boundary (lee trough/outflow) in a SSW to NNE fashion from the
Triad into VA. Low level wind shear 30-35 knots exists with the
boundary. Severe storms have been rotating given the shear and
boundary. Mix layer CAPE is maximized 2000 j/kg over the central
Piedmont.

Deep convection will probably continue to develop into central
NC this evening, Shear profiles will be supportive of
supercells, particularly where coverage remains scattered and
cells discrete, versus a tendency for bowing segments within the
broken line of frontal convection. Storms should be enhanced
through late evening, and likely weakening as they move SE into
the Coastal Plain later.

Again, a tornado is possible with any of the initial
supercells. Incidents of wind damage are likely in the
developing clusters/bow segments.

Key Message 2: Dry through Saturday, then unsettled into next
week.

Late Week through Weekend: High pressure shifts from the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, settling over the Mid-Atlantic by
Friday. Expect near to below-average temperatures and fair weather
through Saturday afternoon. The next round of precipitation arrives
late Saturday evening into Sunday morning as tropical moisture
interacts with a developing stationary boundary.

Into Next Week: Unsettled weather persists through at least mid-week
as the stationary boundary lingers overhead. Plentiful Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will tap into this lingering  boundary, bringing
multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region over several days.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

TAF period: There is a minimal threat for fog at RWI behind the cold
front that passed through earlier, but otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. There will be just some spotty
clouds overnight, and the wind will veer from the west to the
northwest in the morning with some gusts.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are forecast through at least Friday
night, with isolated showers/storms possible at INT/GSO Saturday and
Saturday night. Precipitation coverage will expand on Sunday, with
showers/storms likely at INT/GSO/RWI and more scattered coverage at
RDU/RWI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/MWS/CA
AVIATION...Green