764
FXUS62 KRAH 311906
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 PM Friday...

1) Waves of diurnally-maximized convection, especially Sun-Mon, will
accompany a slow-moving mid/upr-level trough and preceding, deeply
moist sswly flow through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Waves of diurnally-maximized convection, especially
Sun-Mon, will accompany a slow-moving mid/upr-level trough and
preceding, deeply moist sswly flow through the middle of next week.

A positively-tilted mid/upper trough will approach from the OH/TN
Valleys this weekend. Preceding sswly, and deep moisture
characterized by PW values of 2-2.5 inches and 125-150% of normal,
will overspread cntl NC Sun-Mon, then probably linger especially
over ern zones through mid-week. Despite widespread cloud cover,
high temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 70s should still
allow for weak to moderate instability to develop. And by Monday,
embedded upper impulses and possible upper divergence from a jet
over the Appalachians may provide some forcing for ascent. All of
these ingredients should result in waves of showers and storms as
early as Sun morning over the wrn Piedmont and Sun afternoon through
at least Mon-Mon night otherwise and elsewhere. The pattern will
favor marginal risks of both excessive rain and severe, especially
Sun-Mon.

The trough will lift NE and deamplify from Tuesday onward, but
continued moist SW flow should result in above-normal shower and
storm chances through much of the workweek, albeit gradually
decreasing each day. This will keep temperatures in check with highs
mostly in the 80s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Dry air related to high pressure along and just offshore the Middle
Atlantic coast will favor VFR conditions and light surface winds
through Sat.

Outlook: Increasing and deepening low-level moisture accompanying a
warm frontal passage will favor increasing chances of low stratus
Sun morning, especially over the wrn Piedmont (INT/GSO). Waves of
diurnally-maximized convection, especially Sun-Mon, but with
lingering above average chances through the middle of next week,
will accompany the slow approach and passage of a mid/upr-level
trough.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/JD
AVIATION...MWS