642
FXUS62 KRAH 302206
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated the aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

1) After continued below average temperatures and humidity levels to
finish this work week, moisture and probability of convection will
increase by late weekend and continue into early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... After continued below average temperatures and
humidity levels to finish this work week, moisture and probability
of convection will increase by late weekend and continue into early
to mid next week.

The models indicate a positively-tilted mid/upr-level trough will
progress slowly ewd from ern Canada through the OH and TN Valleys
this weekend through early next week, though there remains
significant model spread regarding to what degree the trough will
remain phased, and similarly to what degree and duration the basal
portion may close off across the TN Valley vicinity next week. In
any event, deep sswly flow will transport abundant moisture,
characterized by PWs of around 2.25" and 125% or so of normal,
across the Carolinas and srn Middle Atlantic Sun through at least
Mon night, when clouds and precipitation chances in convection will
be maximized. If deeper trough and closed low solutions were to
verify, some severe risk would exist for cntl NC during that time.

While the trough and whatever closed low that may form over the TN
Valley should continue to lift newd and deamplify by mid to late
next week, residually moist, swly flow and chances for rain will
probably persist over cntl NC for most of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 606 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the forecast period through
Friday evening. There remains a low-end probability of some shallow
fog or low visibilities at RWI, but confidence remains too low to
include. Winds will be light through the period, northerly tonight,
becoming west-southwest Friday afternoon.

Outlook: A gradual increase in low-level moisture through the
weekend will favor increasing chances of low stratus/fog at RWI and
FAY Sat morning and over the wrn Piedmont (INT/GSO) Sun morning,
followed by above average chances of showers/storms and flight
restrictions area-wide Sun through early to mid next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...AK/MWS