938
FXUS62 KRAH 311048
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing area of low pressure off the SE Coast will move further
offshore as high pressure to our north extends south into the area
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Pleasant weather with below normal highs/lows
* Comfortable humidity levels
* Convective storm chances largely stay west of central NC

Aloft, a shortwave trough over WV will track into central and
southern VA before reaching near Delmarva by early Mon. The system
will largely track to our north, but good divergence overhead and
increasing high-level RH will favor lots of mid-high cloudiness from
time to time. At the surface, 1025mb high pressure will nose down
from PA/NY, resulting in a cooler NNE flow. Guidance also depicts,
and it is evident on satellite, an area of low pressure off the
GA/SC coasts that is expected to track ENE over the next 24 hours
over the western Atlantic. The ECMWF appears the strongest with this
low, deepening it to 1008 mb. Regardless, it won`t affect us but
could aid for some gustiness in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain to
20-25 mph at times. Highs should be below normal in the upper 70s to
low 80s and lows cool in the low to mid 50s, except upper 50s in the
far SE as clouds clear out.

Morning low clouds will be possible over the western and southern
Piedmont in a moist NE flow, but these should mix out by mid-
morning. As for storm chances, with the front moving to our south,
the main chance would be from some upslope convection along the NC
mountains that could spill over into the western Piedmont from any
resultant outflows. The latest HREF continues to keep storms west of
the Triad, with only the FV3 furthest east with storms and even
those fall apart when reaching the Triad. Instability is lacking, as
well as dewpoints forecast to be rather dry in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Continued temperatures below seasonal averages
* Dry weather and comfortable humidity continues

Continued troughiness will exist on Monday, with a shortwave
rotating cyclonically over the northern Mid-Atlantic. High pressure
will continue to extend down the Eastern Seaboard, with below normal
low-level thicknesses for the beginning of September. Regardless of
its overall strength, the offshore low will continue to exit further
away from the East Coast as it moves NE over the Atlantic Ocean.
Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible, especially in the east.

We should see highs once again quite pleasant for our Labor Day in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
will favor lows in the low to mid/upper 50s. As for dewpoints during
the day, low humidity will once again dominate with dewpoints
perhaps mixing out into the upper 40s west to mid 50s in the east.
The day should stay dry with a lack of any forcing and instability
in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Sunday...

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal
* No appreciable rainfall expected

Upper level troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS will
continuously reload for the foreseeable future, with sfc high
pressure remaining entrenched across the Carolinas through mid to
late week. The better rain chances will remain displaced; 1) along a
stalled frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast; 2) within the
upslope regime along the western slopes of the Appalachians.

By late week, shortwave energy rounding the base of the long wave
trough could bring some limited precipitation chances to central NC,
although confidence is low and largely contingent on the strength
and location of the upper disturbances. The first chance of
precipitation could come with the potential development of a weak
coastal low late Wednesday into Thursday, possibly enhancing rain
chances along the eastern Sandhills and coastal plain. Then Thursday
into Friday, a moisture-starved cold front approaching from the west
could bring some scattered showers and storms, mainly across the
western Piedmont. That said, this pattern closely resembles recent
setups that ultimately produced a "Carolina Split", that left much
of interior NC dry. Notably, the 18z/30 run of the ECMWF AIFS keeps
much of central NC dry during the period, further underscoring the
limited rain chances.

Temperatures are expected to average near to slightly below normal
through the period.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: MVFR cigs may linger for an hour or two this
morning at KINT and KGSO, otherwise VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the period. Scattered to broken high clouds expected
this morning, decreasing in the aft/eve Sun. Nely winds will
increase this morning/early aft, highest at KFAY where gusts to
around 20-25 kts are possible. Gusts of 15-20 kts possible at KRDU
and KRWI, lower at KINT and KGSO. -KC

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are then expected Monday through
Wednesday. Rain chances may increase late week with the potential
for a weak coastal low to develop late Wednesday into Thursday,
followed by an approach of a cold front from the west. However,
aviation impacts are expected to be limited. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/CBL