053
FXUS62 KRAH 230141
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
840 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will hold over the East Coast through Monday,
although a couple of upper level disturbances, one tonight and
another early Monday, will bring periods of clouds. The high will
push offshore late Monday, allowing a weak surface front and yet
another upper level disturbance to move into the area on Tuesday.
This weak front will stall and hold over the region through mid
week, before a stronger cold front moves in on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 PM Saturday...

The potent mid level shortwave trough responsible for our high
clouds this afternoon is easy to see on GOES IR and WV imagery
moving from central NC into E NC, attended by a large area of broken
to overcast mid and high clouds and followed closely by an area of
overcast mid clouds immediately behind it extending back over W NC.
This wave is poorly reflected on the latest surface analysis, just
by a subtle surface trough over central NC. Radar returns with this
disturbance, such as that noted on MRMS base reflectivity, have been
weak but areally expansive over the last several hours. While a few
light drops may have been felt in some spots, the high cloud bases
aoa 6kft yielding a fairly deep and very dry subcloud layer,
including surface dewpoint depressions of 25-30F or more, has kept
anything measurable from reaching the ground. This wave will keep
moving eastward and will push off the NC coast toward sunrise Sun
morning. While the considerable mid cloudiness will persist for
several more hours especially over the VA border counties and NE
CWA, skies should trend to clear to mostly clear overnight within
WNW steering flow and weak surface high pressure returns. Due to the
clouds, temps remain a bit mild and have been falling at a slow
pace, however the light winds and late clearing should cause
readings to dip prior to daybreak. Have nudged forecast lows upward
just a bit, to the upper 20s to lower 30s with some mid 20s in the
outlying areas. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 235 PM: The upstream short-wave is generating
some elevated radar echoes over eastern TN this afternoon, but none
of which has been reported to reach the ground.  Think we`ll see the
same thing over our area later this afternoon/evening, with perhaps
a few sprinkles reaching the sfc across the northern
Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Otherwise, just expect increasing cloudiness
through early tonight, clearing out west to east through Sunday
morning. Mid 20 lows are expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...

In the wake of the departing mid level trough, weak shortwave
ridging will build across NC on Sunday. Increased heights and mostly
sunny skies should result in a quiet weather day with highs reaching
the low to mid 50s. Mid/high clouds ahead of another approaching
shortwave trough to our south will overspread the area late Sunday
night. No concerns for precip with this trough given dry BL. Lows in
the low to mid 30s. Light winds generally 10 mph or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

* Mild, with temperature departures peaking about 8-12 F above avg
  Tue-Thu
* A chance of rain/showers Thu aft/eve
* Brief period of near to slightly below avg temps Fri/Fri night,
  then warming again over the weekend

Monday through Tuesday: Aloft, a weak s/w will move across the mid-
Atlantic on Mon, while another more potent s/w swings across the
Southeast US/nrn Gulf Mon/Mon night. As the latter s/w moves off the
Southeast US coast Mon night/Tue, another s/w will move across the
region. The two shortwaves that move across the mid-Atlantic appear
to be moisture-starved, with the moisture associated with the s/w to
the south staying out of the area. At the surface, high pressure
will remain in place over the region through Mon night, while an
area of low pressure moves across the nrn Gulf, across FL, and off
the Southeast US coast. A lee trough will develop Tue as a cold
front approaches from the west and the offshore low lifts newd, well
off the East Coast. The dry cold front will move ewd across the area
Tue aft/eve, with high pressure moving ewd across the Deep South
ridging into the area behind it. Near to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected Mon, with well above normal temperatures
on Tue. Highs will increase from mid 50s/low 60s Mon to mid 60s/low
70s Tue. Lows will follow a similar trend, increasing from mid/upper
30s Mon night to upper 30s/low 40s Tue night.

Wednesday onward: Aloft, a high amplitude ridge over the West Coast
on Wed will migrate ewd into the Intermountain West/Four Corners
through Wed night/Thu. This ridge will eventually get pinched off
and modify Thu night/Fri as a low moves ewd and over the nrn Baja
Peninsula. Meanwhile east of the ridge, a longwave trough will begin
to develop Wed/Wed night with the help of a pair of shortwaves, one
diving swd along the Rockies and into the Four Corners/srn Plains
and the other progressing ewd through the nrn Plains and mid/upper
MS Valley. Another nrn stream s/w will dive sewd across the upper MS
Valley/wrn Great Lakes on the heels of the one moving into the OH
Valley late Wed night/Thu, further amplifying the trough, which will
subsequently move ewd across the eastern CONUS Thu night/Fri. As the
trough moves offshore and lifts away from the region Fri night/Sat,
additional nrn stream shortwaves will swing ewd across se Canada,
Great Lakes, and the Northeast US, with the longwave trough
amplifying once again and progressing across the ern CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure will continue ewd across the region and
offshore Wed. A pre-frontal trough will strengthen over the region
Wed night, with the cold front expected to move across the area Thu
aft/eve and offshore Thu night. A dry, reinforcing cold front may
move across the area Thu night/Fri, with high pressure moving into
and across the area in its wake. The best chance for showers will
still be along and ahead of the front Thu aft/eve. Wed/Wed night
still expected to be the warmest, with highs in the mid 60s to low
70s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Thu could be equally as warm,
but will depend on the clouds, precip, and fropa timing. Near normal
temperatures expected Fri/Fri night, increasing again Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM Saturday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions across central NC during
the next 24 hours. A potent shortwave currently moving through the
area is resulting in 10-12 kft cloud ceilings, and while they will
lower a bit further this evening they will remain well above the VFR
threshold, in the 6-10 kft range. While radar depicts some virga
with the system, the low levels should be too dry for any
precipitation to reach the ground other than maybe a stray sprinkle,
as dew point depressions are largely in the 25-30F range. The system
will exit to the east by 06z tonight with mainly clear skies behind
it. Winds will be light and variable through the period, less than 5
kts.

Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected through Wednesday
with periods of mid to high level cloudiness. Sub-VFR conditions may
then return Wednesday night and Thursday as a strong frontal system
approaches.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Luchetti/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Danco/Luchetti