230
FXUS62 KRAH 240024
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
824 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will continue to extend across the
Carolinas through Sunday, while an area of low pressure will develop
and track off the coast. A cold front will approach from the west
and move east through the area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

As a longwave trough amplifies southward from the Upper Midwest,
lingering mid- and upper-level vorticity with a weak circulation
center over the Southeast will eject east-northeast across eastern
portions of the Carolinas this evening and overnight. Weak
cyclogenesis will develop along the stalled front to our south, with
the sfc low reaching NC-SC coast by daybreak Sunday.

While the strongest moisture convergence will remain near or just
offshore, weak lift may support patchy light rain across the far
southern and eastern coastal plain counties towards daybreak.
Elsewhere, conditions will remain dry with increasing and thickening
mid and high level cloud cover across the eastern half of the area.
Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

* A few degrees warmer with isolated to widely scattered showers
  possible Sunday

A weak surface low hugging the NC coastline will track slowly north
on Sunday before accelerating off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday
night. Isolated rain showers will be possible across the far eastern
coastal plain zones, but most areas will remain dry.

Meanwhile, an amplifying long wave trough moving into the Eastern US
and it`s associated cold front will bring limited moisture transport
into the area. This will support isolated to widely scattered
showers over the western Piedmont during the afternoon into the
early evening. However, nocturnal cooling will quickly eliminate the
already weak instability, causing most of the shower activity to
weaken and dissipate Sunday night as the lead front advances east
into central NC by daybreak.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer, with highs in the lower to mid
80s. Overnight lows will range from 65 to 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

* Unseasonably cool and dry conditions through the work week.

* Isolated showers possible east of I-95 Monday afternoon.

Upper level low centered over Ontario will extend south into the Mid-
Atlantic and shift east through mid week. A few weak embedded
shortwave troughs will then move across the Mid-Atlantic region
resulting in increased moisture across the region especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the surface, as the coastal low shifts off to the northeast early
Monday morning, another weak cold front will pass over the area.
While precip chances are low with the passage of the second cold
front, high PW values and the trough axis could favor a few showers
and storms developing over the Coastal Plain region. Most model
guidance is however trending dry, so kept a 15-20% chance for
Coastal Plain counties. After that strong high pressure will build
in to the region with much cooler and drier air. Wednesday night,
there is a 15-20% chance of some showers developing mainly across
the south as a low pressure is yet again expected to develop off the
SC/NC coast. Shower and storm activity will largely be over the
coast Thursday through the weekend, as high pressure continues to
build south and east. Besides Monday, temperatures will feel like
fall as highs will generally be in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s most
days, where Monday temps before the front passes through will be in
the low 80s north to near 90 across the southeast. Overnight lows
will be refreshing with temps starting out in the low/mid 60s
Mon/Tues then after the front in the mid/upper 50s. Overnight lows
will gradually rise through the late week with overnight lows back
in the low/mid 60s by Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 815 PM Saturday...

A mid and upper-level disturbance, and preceding multi-layered VFR
ceilings, virga, and patchy light rain/sprinkles at the surface,
will move northeast across NC through early Sunday. Its approach
will contribute to the development of weak coastal low pressure that
will track off the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture transport and
lift around the coastal low will result in the development of an
area of IFR-MVFR ceilings roughly along and east of I-95, including
into FAY and RWI, late tonight-Sunday morning. A few showers and/or
patchy light rain will also be possible at those sites. Scattered
showers/storms will develop over the NC Mountains and Foothills and
spread east across the nw NC Piedmont Sunday afternoon-evening,
where a PROB30 for convection has been included for that
possibility.

Outlook: A lingering shower/storm may drift into the vicinity of RDU
later Sun evening, before dissipating through around midnight. A
strong mid-level wave will bring a chance of rain Tue night and
early Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS/Kren