620
FXUS62 KRAH 100514
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
114 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will
interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the
northern North Carolina mountains as of early afternoon. This
cluster is expected to expand farther south and continue to move
east into the central portion of the state.

There are two primary threats, both of importance. One is the flash
flooding threat - a flood watch is in effect until 2am Thursday
across much of the western half of the forecast area, the area most
impacted by Chantal over the weekend. WPC has upgraded some northern
portions of the flood watch area to a moderate (level 3 of 4) risk
for flash flooding, a risk level that is not often seen across
central North Carolina. The rest of the area is under a slight
(level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.

The second threat is severe weather. This is somewhat coincident
with the flash flooding threat spatially, highlighting western
counties more than eastern counties. However, the threat categories
are not as high - western counties are in a slight (level 2 of 5)
risk while eastern counties are in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk.
The thunderstorm threat will be the greatest during the late
afternoon and early evening hours, with the primary threat coming
from damaging winds.

Both threats should become minimal after midnight. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* There is a Slight Risk of both excessive rainfall and severe
  storms for much of central NC on Thu, with a Marginal Risk
  elsewhere across the area.

Bermuda high pressure will continue ridging wsw to across FL through
Thu night. A northern stream s/w tracking slowly ewd across srn
Quebec, Canada while the attendant trough moves ewd across the
Appalachians. Both the s/w and the trough should lift newd late Thu
night, while a weak s/w lingers over the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. At
the surface, relatively low pressure will prevail across much of
central NC through Thu eve, then lift newd across the mid-Atlantic
Thu night. Still expect a warm, moist, unstable airmass over the
area, with showers and storms expected, mainly along differential
heating boundaries and leftover outflows from todays storms. The
primary weather concerns will again be heavy rainfall/flooding and
isolated damaging wind gusts. There is a Slight Risk (west) to
Marginal Risk (east) of severe storms, and a Slight Risk (northwest
2 thirds) and Marginal Risk (southeast) for excessive rainfall.
Impacts will be greatest over areas that were hardest hit by Chantal
and those who receive heavy rainfall with todays storms. As for
temperatures, highs should generally be in the mid to upper 80s,
while lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* There is a Marginal Risk for both excessive rainfall and severe
  storms on Friday.

Aloft, the weak wave over the area on Fri should slowly drift newd
out of the area Fri night. High pressure may briefly build back in
on Sat and Sun. A northern stream s/w will swing ewd from the
northern Plains to the Northeast/southeast Canada from Sat to Mon.
While high pressure may hold across the area, the s/w trough could
clip central NC on Sun. The longwave trough may finally extend swwd
through and slip sewd into central NC early-mid next week. The
surface pattern will largely remain the same as it has been, with
relative low pressure/trough over the area. With little change in
airmass, expect continued aft/eve convection each day through the
extended forecast period, with greater coverage/intensity coincident
with s/w passages aloft and slightly less coverage/intensity when
the high aloft ridges over the area. Highs should generally be in
the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...

Widespread convective overturning and rain-cooled air/outflow has
resulted across all but the ern part of NC as of 05Z, including a
small segment of cntl NC from FAY to CTZ. There may yet be a few
showers/storms in a lingering instability axis there for the next
few hours. Otherwise, the earlier widespread convection has
transitioned to diminishing intensity, stratiform rain; and that
continued diminishing/dissipating trend of both the rain and multi-
layered mid/high-level overcast will continue through the morning.
While those mid/high-level clouds and rain dissipate, LIFR-IFR ones
will develop in the unseasonably humid and aforementioned rain-
cooled air below. Those ceilings are expected to then persist
through mid-morning, then lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR
through late morning to midday. Scattered to locally numerous
convection will probably redevelop with daytime heating of an
unseasonably moist airmass, and under the influence of a series of
mid-level disturbances that will track across the region, later this
afternoon-evening.

Outlook: Another day of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms
appears likely for Friday, with coverage more scattered Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the early morning
fog/stratus that occurred Wed morning and that is expected again
this morning, early morning restrictions could continue through the
next several days with no change in air mass.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040-
073>076-083>086.
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-077-078-
088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS/Green