


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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620 FXUS62 KRAH 100514 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 114 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the northern North Carolina mountains as of early afternoon. This cluster is expected to expand farther south and continue to move east into the central portion of the state. There are two primary threats, both of importance. One is the flash flooding threat - a flood watch is in effect until 2am Thursday across much of the western half of the forecast area, the area most impacted by Chantal over the weekend. WPC has upgraded some northern portions of the flood watch area to a moderate (level 3 of 4) risk for flash flooding, a risk level that is not often seen across central North Carolina. The rest of the area is under a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The second threat is severe weather. This is somewhat coincident with the flash flooding threat spatially, highlighting western counties more than eastern counties. However, the threat categories are not as high - western counties are in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk while eastern counties are in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. The thunderstorm threat will be the greatest during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the primary threat coming from damaging winds. Both threats should become minimal after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... * There is a Slight Risk of both excessive rainfall and severe storms for much of central NC on Thu, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere across the area. Bermuda high pressure will continue ridging wsw to across FL through Thu night. A northern stream s/w tracking slowly ewd across srn Quebec, Canada while the attendant trough moves ewd across the Appalachians. Both the s/w and the trough should lift newd late Thu night, while a weak s/w lingers over the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. At the surface, relatively low pressure will prevail across much of central NC through Thu eve, then lift newd across the mid-Atlantic Thu night. Still expect a warm, moist, unstable airmass over the area, with showers and storms expected, mainly along differential heating boundaries and leftover outflows from todays storms. The primary weather concerns will again be heavy rainfall/flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts. There is a Slight Risk (west) to Marginal Risk (east) of severe storms, and a Slight Risk (northwest 2 thirds) and Marginal Risk (southeast) for excessive rainfall. Impacts will be greatest over areas that were hardest hit by Chantal and those who receive heavy rainfall with todays storms. As for temperatures, highs should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, while lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... * There is a Marginal Risk for both excessive rainfall and severe storms on Friday. Aloft, the weak wave over the area on Fri should slowly drift newd out of the area Fri night. High pressure may briefly build back in on Sat and Sun. A northern stream s/w will swing ewd from the northern Plains to the Northeast/southeast Canada from Sat to Mon. While high pressure may hold across the area, the s/w trough could clip central NC on Sun. The longwave trough may finally extend swwd through and slip sewd into central NC early-mid next week. The surface pattern will largely remain the same as it has been, with relative low pressure/trough over the area. With little change in airmass, expect continued aft/eve convection each day through the extended forecast period, with greater coverage/intensity coincident with s/w passages aloft and slightly less coverage/intensity when the high aloft ridges over the area. Highs should generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 AM Thursday... Widespread convective overturning and rain-cooled air/outflow has resulted across all but the ern part of NC as of 05Z, including a small segment of cntl NC from FAY to CTZ. There may yet be a few showers/storms in a lingering instability axis there for the next few hours. Otherwise, the earlier widespread convection has transitioned to diminishing intensity, stratiform rain; and that continued diminishing/dissipating trend of both the rain and multi- layered mid/high-level overcast will continue through the morning. While those mid/high-level clouds and rain dissipate, LIFR-IFR ones will develop in the unseasonably humid and aforementioned rain- cooled air below. Those ceilings are expected to then persist through mid-morning, then lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR through late morning to midday. Scattered to locally numerous convection will probably redevelop with daytime heating of an unseasonably moist airmass, and under the influence of a series of mid-level disturbances that will track across the region, later this afternoon-evening. Outlook: Another day of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms appears likely for Friday, with coverage more scattered Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the early morning fog/stratus that occurred Wed morning and that is expected again this morning, early morning restrictions could continue through the next several days with no change in air mass. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040- 073>076-083>086. Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ011-026>028-041>043-077-078- 088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...MWS/Green