604
FXUS62 KRAH 121321
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
920 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the South Atlantic states to near
Bermuda ahead of a moisture-starved mid and upper-level disturbance
that will move across the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPDATE as of 920 AM... No changes with this mornings update.

As of 322 AM Wednesday...

Water vapor imagery this morning depicted weak ridging over central
NC with primarily zonal flow aloft.  PWAT will remain well below
normal (~30 to 50% of normal) for much of today with generally sunny
skies expected.  A sfc high currently located over the eastern Gulf
will slide off the FL coast today promoting a bit more organized
swly sfc flow over central NC this afternoon.  Given quite dry
conditions (minRH bottoming out in the upper teens to lower/mid 20s
% this afternoon) and some increasing winds expected today (gusting
upwards of 15 to 20 mph this afternoon), in coordination with the
NCFS decided to put out an Increased Fire Danger statement for those
in the western to central Piedmont and portions of the Sandhills
this afternoon.  Those in these areas in particular are encouraged
to avoid outdoor burning today.

Otherwise, expect high temps to peak around 80 this afternoon (~15
to 20 degrees above normal) with mild overnight lows in the mid to
upper 40s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM Wednesday...

A short-wave will move through the deep south on Thursday promoting
generally cloudier conditions over central NC. However, anomalous
moisture associated with this mid-level wave will largely split us
to our north and south.  Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement
simulating dry conditions over central NC. Thus, will continue a dry
forecast at this update.  While we`ll continue to see sswly flow
Thursday decided to knock the high temperatures down a few degrees
compared to Wednesday given the expected cloud cover.  Mild
overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s are once again expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...

* Well above normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

* Strong to severe storms are possible on Sunday. Strong, gusty
  winds in excess of 30 mph are also expected, even outside of
  convection.

Friday through Sunday: Aloft, a low will close off over the cntl
Plains on Fri, then quickly lift newd across the Plains and upper MS
Valley Fri night, continuing nwd across the wrn Great Lakes and into
Canada through Sat night. Meanwhile, a trailing s/w will move across
the srn Plains on Sat then lift enewd across the mid MS Valley and
OH Valley Sat night as the synoptic trough progresses slowly ewd
across the cntl CONUS. As the s/w lifts through the Northeast US on
Sun, the trough will sharpen and progress ewd toward/into region.
There are still some significant timing differences between the GFS
and EC model solutions wrt the trough progression through the area,
resulting in some continued forecast uncertainty Sun night/Mon. At
the surface, some weak ridging may still be in place across the area
early Fri, but it should lift nwd out of the area as a warm front
lifts into area Fri/Fri night. Meanwhile to the west, a potent low
pressure system will develop over the cntl Plains on Fri. The low
should move newd across the Plains and upper MS Valley Fri/Fri night
then continue nwd across the wrn Great Lakes and into Canada Sat/Sat
night, while the attendant cold front progresses ewd from the MS
Valley to the Appalachians. The front should continue ewd across the
region Sun/Sun night, with the possibility of a low developing and
lifting newd across the area, along the line of pre-frontal
convection on Sun.

Precipitation: While there could still be some rain/showers on Sat,
the highest chances for showers/storms will be between Sun morn
(West) and Sun aft/eve (East). Potential still exists for some
strong to severe storms, but it will be dependent upon the timing of
the line of convection and how much instability will be realized
ahead of it. Instability, chances for storms, and magnitude of gusts
generally increase from W-E across central NC on Sun. GFS forecast
soundings indicate 300-600 J/Kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts of 0-1 Km
bulk shear across the area on Sun (the GFS has MUCAPE of 300-700
J/Kg and Effective Shear of 50-60 kts, highest along the I-95
corridor). While the upper level jet will still be west of the area
as the convection moves across the area, the low-mid level jets will
strengthen, coincident with the potential area of low pressure
tracking newd along the line of convection. Off the GFS, the ~45kt
925mb jet could increase to 50-60 kts if the low develops. Similar
increases are shown at 850mb and 700 mb, albeit of higher
magnitudes. With all that in mind, storms will have the potential to
produce strong, damaging winds, with gusts in excess of 50 kts
possible. Even outside/ahead of convection, expect strong, gusty
winds of 30-35 kts, with some gusts into the 40s possible.
Additionally, PWATs of 1.4 to 1.6 inches are expected, which could
result in some heavy rainfall and minor flooding.

As for temperatures, expect above to well above normal temperatures
through Sun, warmest Sat/Sat night with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


Monday onward: Aloft, the trough should progress ewd across the
region Mon/Mon night, with longwave ridging expected Tue/Wed. At the
surface, the cold front should move offshore Sun night/Mon, with
high pressure will building into the region from the south-southwest
Mon/Mon night. The high should then shift east of the area through
Tue/Tue night. Expect largely dry weather Mon/Tue. Near normal
temperatures expected Mon/Mon night, moderating again thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 615 AM Wednesday...

High pressure over the southeast will promote VFR conditions through
the 24 hour TAF period. Light sswly sfc winds this morning will pick
up a bit this afternoon, with some mid teen gusts possible later
today.  Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies through the period sans
a passing, brief period of mid to high level cloudiness this
evening.

Outlook: Swly flow will strengthen and transport moisture into the
Carolinas by this weekend, with an associated chance of IFR-MVFR
stratus Sat morning and light showers Sat afternoon. A better chance
of MVFR ceilings will result Sat night-Sun morning, followed by the
passage of a band of showers/storms along a passing cold front on
Sun. Very strong and gusty swly surface winds will also result ahead
of the cold front this weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS