406
FXUS62 KRAH 291143
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
643 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic today, then continue to extend southwestward into VA and NC
tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move across the region Sunday
night, followed by another area of cold high pressure that will
build briefly overhead Monday and offshore Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Saturday...

* Continued cold and mostly dry weather.

Surface high pressure will continue to cross the Mid-Atlantic states
today before exiting the coast tonight. This will allow for
continued dry conditions through the day, with mostly sunny skies
expected. High temperatures are expected to continue to be about 10
to 15 degrees below normal, in the 40s region-wide this afternoon,
before dipping into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight. Temperatures
overnight look to follow a non-diurnal temperature curve, with the
lowest temperatures occurring in the first half of the night. This
will be due to warm advection and increased low cloud cover
associated with southerly winds off the surface.

Rain chances look to hold off until after daybreak Sunday, but there
will be a low chance for a brief period of patchy light rain shortly
before sunrise Sunday. The increased cloud cover and warming should
limit freezing rain potential, but very isolated freezing rain
cannot be completely ruled out in the NW Piedmont before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Saturday...

* Light stratiform rain and wide-ranging temperatures courtesy of in-
  situ cold air damming on Sun

A series of nrn stream shortwave perturbations, now stretching
within nw flow aloft across the cntl and nrn High Plains, will pivot
across the mid/upr MS Valley through tonight, then lift across the
lwr Great Lakes and Northeast Sun-Sun night. A trailing mid-level
trough, corridor of weak 10-20 meter 500 mb height falls, and axis
of weakening warm and moist advection, will move across cntl NC Sun
and offshore Sun night.

At the surface, cold and dry but transitory high pressure, now
centered 1033 mb high over WV, will have drifted to near and just
south of Nova Scotia by 12Z Sun. An associated dry air ridge will
extend swwd across the interior srn Middle Atlantic on Sun, with its
ern bound marked by an in-situ wedge front over the Piedmont. A weak
frontal wave may also develop and ripple along a coastal front along
the NC coast. Meanwhile another strong, polar/cold front will trail
a migratory cyclone forecast to track from the lwr Great Lakes to
srn QC and move across cntl NC Sun night.

Isentropic lift, within a return, low-level flow regime around the
departing ridge, will likely contribute to the development of low
ceilings and patchy light rain over the Piedmont Sun morning. While
the antecedent airmass will be very dry, characterized by surface
dewpoints initially in the teens and supportive of freezing rain at
12Z Sun over the nw Piedmont, surface temperatures will be in the
process of increasing above freezing owing to downward IR from the
expanding low cloud layer even before 12Z and then insolation after
12Z. Additionally, associated precipitation will likely be very
light and patchy and consequently unlikely to fully saturate and wet
bulb the dry near surface layer. As such, only a cold, patchy and
light rain is expected. While there may be some enhancement to the
light rain from the aforementioned weakening mid-level moist axis,
that too will be light; and rainfall amounts areawide are expected
to be less than a tenth of an inch.

A large temperature gradient will likely result from the timing and
distribution of clouds and patchy light rain over the Piedmont in
the morning, where highs are likely to only be in the 40s, ranging
through the 50s and into the lwr 60s in the Coastal Plain, where any
light rain will be delayed until later in the day. Deep layer drying
will result behind the mid-level moist axis during the evening; and
this may allow for the brief development of areas of fog and very
low stratus over the heart of the in-situ damming region over the nw
Piedmont through midnight. Thereafter, the passage of the polar
front will favor cold and dry air advection, and mixing with an at
least occasionally gusty nwly surface wind overnight. Low
temperatures behind that passing cold front will likely range from
upr 20s over the nw Piedmont to around 40 in the srn Coastal Plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

* Unseasonably chilly/cold week ahead

* Short period of freezing rain possible over the nw Piedmont at
  onset Tue morning, followed by a widespread, soaking rain Tue

Forecast reasoning from Friday remain unchanged and described below.

Monday will feature a brief lull in precipitation chances as a ~1030
mb surface high builds down from Upstate NY and New England.
Temperatures will only reach the mid-40s to lower-50s (8-12 degrees
below normal) and dew points will be in the 20s. However, this
surface high will quickly move east to the Canadian Maritimes on
Monday night as a potent shortwave tracking from the Southern Plains
to the Middle MS Valley spawns a surface low over the Gulf Coast.
This low will track NE through the Carolinas on Tuesday and looks to
provide a welcome soaking (but cold) rain to our region from Monday
night into Tuesday. While the system will be fast moving, it will
have plenty of moisture and dynamics, and forecast rainfall totals
are in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, amounts depicted on both the GFS and
ECMWF. Isolated urban and poor drainage flooding can`t be ruled out,
and WPC has much of central NC in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Still, given how dry it has been
lately, widespread flooding is not expected.

Also watching potential for a brief period of freezing rain again at
the onset of precipitation over the NW Piedmont on Monday night and
early Tuesday morning, as a very small number of GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members (around 10% or less) depict it. Once again a deep
warm layer aloft should preclude any chance of sleet or snow, and
even any freezing rain would be very fleeting as there will be no
high to our north and the low will be taking an unfavorable inland
track over eastern NC if the latest GFS and ECMWF verify. Monday
night`s low temperatures in the 30s will be slow to warm on Tuesday
with highs ranging from lower-40s in the far NW (maybe even some
upper-30s) to lower-50s in the far SE. Rain chances will end and
skies will clear from west to east on Tuesday evening/night behind
the departing low as lows drop into the upper-20s to mid-30s.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. The next wave brings increasing
clouds and a chance of precipitation as early as Friday, but at this
time it looks more likely on Friday night and Saturday. Below-normal
temperatures will continue, as highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-
50s from Wednesday through Friday, and lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights will be in the upper-20s to mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected for most, if not all, of the 24 hour TAF
period. Light winds are expected throughout the day and are expected
to veer from northerly to easterly and southeasterly. A few to
scattered high clouds are expected throughout the afternoon. Near
the end of the TAF period, low to mid level ceilings should start to
spread into the NW Piedmont. Guidance is unclear on how quickly MVFR
ceilings will move into the region, with some guidance showing
flight restrictions as early as 8 or 9Z. There is also a low chance
of isolated patchy light rain coinciding with the lower ceilings,
however confidence is low so kept restrictions out at this time.

Outlook: A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and
associated sub-VFR restrictions. Marginal LLWS may also be possible
ahead of the cold frontal passage Sunday morning into the afternoon.
The cold front will stall south of the area Monday with dry VFR
conditions giving way to widespread rain/showers and sub-VFR
restrictions late Monday night and Tuesday as a series of weak sfc
lows/waves track through the SE US and up the Carolina Coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS/Danco
AVIATION...LH/CBL