959
FXUS62 KRAH 140613
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through
Saturday. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area from
the north on Sunday, then settle to our south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Friday...

* Continued dry today, with a few clouds mainly NE late today into
  tonight.

We`ll stay in a NW mid level flow today, between a deep low over the
Canadian Maritimes and ridging centered over NE Mexico, as surface
high pressure analyzed just to our W over the Mid South slowly
settles over GA and SC through tonight, with a weak lee trough over
W NC. A dry and fairly stable column remains in place, so apart from
a little orographically enhanced cirrus over the NE early this
morning, we should see plenty of sunshine through at least early-mid
afternoon. An area of mid clouds now noted on satellite imagery
extending from the western U.P. of MI into NE KY and associated with
a warm front aloft will shift E and SE, bringing additional mid
clouds starting this afternoon and continuing through much of
tonight, mostly over our NE half. But we`ll still see plenty of
insolation today, and with surface winds not nearly as blustery as
previous days and near-normal thicknesses, it should feel rather
pleasant with seasonable temps as highs will be generally from the
mid 60s to near 70. Expect fair skies tonight, except partly cloudy
NE, and low temps not far from normal, upper 30s to mid 40s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

* Dry, breezy, and warm.

The surface high will settle over FL Sat, placing us in a low level
WSW WAA pattern with a tightening MSLP gradient, and a continued
northwesterly mid and upper level flow. With the surface high
elongated westward over the N Gulf and E of the Bahamas, we`ll be
cut off from any low level moisture source, so despite steadily
rising dewpoints into the 40s Sat and low 50s Sat night, we should
stay dry, albeit with an increase in clouds as a mid level
perturbation tracks SE through the Mid Atlantic region late Sat into
Sat night. Low level thicknesses are projected to be around 25-30 m
above normal, supporting mild highs in the low-mid 70s, followed by
much above normal lows in the mid-upper 50s Sat night as we maintain
a southwesterly breeze overnight. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 144 PM Thursday...

Three primary features during the long-term period.

1) Dry fropa on Sunday: While clouds may increase, there will be
limited opportunity for pre-frontal moisture advection.  That
coupled with fairly deep wly flow will limit, or preclude the rain
chances. Very warm pre-frontal airmass with highs in the low-mid 70s.

2) A slightly better chance for rain on Tuesday: This rain chance
will be driven by a s/w trough moving east across the Ohio Valley
early in the day. Light rain early in the day will be the result of
isentropic upglide while the aforementioned s/w is still moving
across the Ohio Valley, but once the wave moves off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast, a trailing front will move through our area and may set the
stage for another light rain opportunity, perhaps even shower in
nature.

3) Lingering light rain chances during the midweek?:  A lot of
uncertainty exists during this period regarding how high of a rain
chance there will be, but at least right now the models are
suggesting that Tuesday`s front will stall either over our area or
just to our south then quickly lift back north during the mid-week
period.  In that process, another round of mostly-light isentropic
upglide driven rain would be possible.  Again, mostly light amounts.

Otherwise, once Sunday`s front moves through, temps will be close to
seasonal averages the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through the next 24
hours. Skies will remain clear through tonight and mostly clear on
Friday, with only a few high clouds possible. Scattered cloudiness
is possible around 5-10 kft on Friday evening mainly in the NE.
Can`t rule out patchy marginal low-level wind shear Friday late
evening into the overnight hours, mainly around RDU and RWI, as a
westerly low-level jet around 35 kts develops. However, confidence
is too low to include mention in the TAFs this far out.

Looking beyond 00Z Saturday: Dry weather and VFR conditions are
likely to prevail at all sites through Monday. The next chance for
light rain and flight restrictions comes on Tuesday with a front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Danco