621
FXUS62 KRAH 292232
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
632 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region through
midweek. A cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday
night, then settle south through the area by Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 PM Tuesday...

Along with neighboring offices, we cancelled the Heat Advisory early
this evening at 6 pm. Most heat indices were running in the upper
90s to near 100, but even lower in the southern Piedmont and
Sandhills in rain-cooled air in the upper 80s to near 90. The Heat
Advisory remains in effect for Wednesday for eastern sections of
central NC. The prior discussion follows below.

As of 1255 PM Tuesday...

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the southern
  Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain through 8 pm tonight.

Scattered convection has developed across the western Piedmont,
southern Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain early this afternoon.
Largely driven be slow, southward oozing vorticity perturbations,
expect this activity to continue through this evening in these
general locations.  Overall mean cloud layer flow is weak again
today. As such, expect slow-moving storms with potential heavy
downpours and isolated flash flooding.  Low-level lapse rates are
not overly high thus far (nor forecast to steepen). As such, not
expecting much in terms of severe storms today. Although, can`t rule
out an isolated deeper/reflective storm producing a damaging wind
gust.

Think the main convective activity across the western and southern
Piedmont will slowly shift into SC later this evening. However,
similar to last night, additional isolated storms and showers along
lingering outflow boundaries appear possible overnight. Will carry
slight chance POPs into the overnight hour to account for this
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM Tuesday...

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of the Piedmont,
  Sandhills, and Coastal Plain through 8 pm Monday night.

Mid-level ridging will hold steady across the southeast on
Wednesday. As such, expect another day of heat indices reaching the
100+ range especially in the Sandhills/Coastal Plain.  While
temperatures will be a tad "cooler" compared to the past few days,
decided to let the Heat Advisory ride given repeated days of high
heat spanning back to late last week. Overnight lows in the mid 70s
are once again expected.

Convection will largely depend on where lingering outflow from
Tuesday`s convection and mid-level forcing ends up. Latest high-res
guidance is similarly suggesting best coverage will be in the west
and south. However, the RAP is bullish on oozing a mid-level vort
lobe across the central Piedmont during the afternoon. As such,
would not be surprised if better coverage makes its way up into the
Triangle area.  Suspect convection will lingering into the overnight
hours along existing outflow, but subside by 12Z Thursday.

Similar to the past few days, weak cloud-layer flow will promote
slow moving storms capable of isolated flash flooding. Severe
weather should be limited, but any stronger core could lead to
isolated damaging downdrafts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

* Continued warm and humid, but increasing coverage of
  showers/storms temper dangerous heat a bit Thurs and Fri.

* Slow moving front brings a risk for scattered flash flooding Fri
  through Fri night.

* Relief from the heat Sat through at least Mon as high temperatures
  struggle to get above 80-85 degrees.

An embedded shortwave diving through the backside of broad troughing
to our north will extend gradual H5 height falls and some influence
of west-southwesterly mid-level flow Thur through Fri night.
Anomalous moisture will be present over the area and hover around
2.5" (90-99th percentile) and should support numerous to widespread
showers/storms as MCV`s ripple through the longwave pattern. At the
surface, a slow-moving cold front draped E-W over the northern Mid-
Atlantic is forecast remain fairly stationary through Thurs and then
drop southward early Fri and through the forecast area by Sat
morning. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will be possible Thurs
as convection develops along mountains and drifts eastward through
the afternoon/evening. Shear will be weak, less than 20 kts, but
moderate instability, anomalous deep layer moisture, and moderate
DCAPE could support locally strong wet-downbursts and unorganized
cells propagating along common outflows.

Risk for flooding will increase Fri as waves of low pressure ripple
along the front and locally enhance the rain coverage/intensity
through Fri night. Moderate instability, a slow moving front, highly
anomalous moisture, and risk for training showers/storms will
support scattered risk for flash flooding (Level 2 out of 4 from WPC
ERO).

High pressure over the Great Lakes Sat will shift eastward and over
the northern Mid-Atlantic by Sun, extending down cooler and much
drier deep-layer air into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There are hints
in model guidance that weak disturbances moving into TN Valley and
southern Appalachians will pull the deep layer moisture back overtop
of the front and may wedge the Piedmont in Mon into Tues (dependent
on cloud cover and degree of overrunning that occurs) as
northeasterly surface flow persists over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers/storms may continue to bubble through this evening
mainly at INT/GSO, within a convergent, lee surface trough axis and
near an area of ongoing convection and outflow from near MWK to MTV.
An area of stratus and mist/fog will probably develop Wed morning
within the heart of rain-cooled air from earlier convection that
focused this past afternoon over the srn Piedmont and Sandhills,
including at FAY. While mostly just to the south and southwest of
Piedmont sites, some may also edge into the GSO and RDU vicinity
around 12Z. Lastly, patchy, early morning mist and fog will be
possible at RWI due to the microclimate there. Scattered, diurnally-
driven convection will concentrate in an arc from FAY to INT/GSO and
especially points swwd again Wed; and Prob30 groups will probably be
warranted at those sites with later TAF issuances.

Outlook: Showers/storms will become more-numerous throughout cntl NC
on Thu, and possibly widespread on Fri, with the approach and
passage of a cold front and upper-level trough. Ahead of that front,
patchy morning fog and stratus will also be possible, particularly
in areas that receive rain the prior afternoon-evening and also at
RWI. Behind the front, a band of post-frontal, mostly MVFR ceilings
will sweep across cntl NC Fri night-early Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Abnormally hot and humid weather continues across central NC. High
temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the
low/mid 100s, but abnormally warm overnight lows could jeopardize
several record high minimum temperatures. Cooler temperatures are
expected late in the week following the passage of a cold front.

Record High Temperatures:


July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002

July 31 (Thursday):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941

August 1 (Friday):
KGSO: 76/1915
KRDU: 77/1917
KFAY: 78/1999

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ010-011-
024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Kren/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH