588
FXUS62 KRAH 311025
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
625 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM Friday...

1) After dry weather today and only a slight chance of showers and
storms in the far west on Saturday, moisture and probability of
convection will increase on Sunday and continue into at least early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... After dry weather today and only a slight chance of
showers and storms in the far west on Saturday, moisture and
probability of convection will increase on Sunday and continue into
at least early next week.

There is high confidence that a positively-tilted mid/upper trough
will approach from the OH/TN Valleys this weekend. While the trough
should still be far enough west to keep much of central NC dry on
Saturday outside of the far western Piedmont where POPs are slight
chance, it will slowly make its way east on Sunday and Monday, with
deep SSW flow ahead of it bringing increasing moisture (PW values of
2-2.5 inches, or 125-150% of normal). Despite widespread cloud
cover, high temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 70s should
still allow for weak to moderate instability to develop. And by
Monday, embedded upper impulses and possible upper divergence from a
jet over the Appalachians may provide some forcing for ascent. All
of these ingredients should result in widespread showers and storms
from Sunday into Monday night, and ensemble mean QPF is generally in
the 0.5-1.5 inch range on average during this time. Locally higher
amounts are possible, and WPC includes our region in a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. This certainly
provides an opportunity for more relief from the ongoing drought.

Despite good model agreement on widespread rainfall on
Sunday/Monday, there are still major differences between the global
models on how the trough evolves. The GFS continues to keep its
southern portion stronger and closes off a low over the OH Valley
and Central Appalachians by Monday, and the 00z CMC does something
similar. This solution would result in stronger mid-level flow and a
possible severe storm threat, compared to the ECMWF which does not
have a closed low over the OH Valley and thus has weaker flow
overall.

The trough will lift NE and deamplify from Tuesday onward, but
continued moist SW flow should result in above-normal shower and
storm chances through much of the workweek, albeit gradually
decreasing each day. This will keep temperatures in check with highs
mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Friday...

FEW/SCT fair weather cu is expected by this afternoon around 5-7 kft
before gradually diminishing after sunset. Winds will remain very
light to nearly calm and variable through this afternoon before
becoming predominantly out of the south into the overnight. Shallow
moisture return tonight may result in fleeting sub-VFR stratus, from
FAY into the western Piedmont Sat morning, although confidence is
too low to include at this time.

Outlook: More substantial moisture return is expected around and
especially behind a warm frontal passage on Sun as it lifts
northward into VA. The approach of a mid/upper level disturbance and
persistent fetch of southwesterly flow into early next week will
bring a risk for waves of showers/storms, maximized in the
afternoon/evening with an overnight and early morning risk for sub-
VFR stratus.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JD
AVIATION...AS