680
FXUS62 KRAH 281756
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
156 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Minimal changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

1) All of central North Carolina will be under a slight (level 2 of
5) risk for severe thunderstorms today, primarily in the late
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... All of central North Carolina will be under a
slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms today, primarily
in the late afternoon and evening hours.

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently near the
Michigan/Ohio border and is forecast to drop to the south-southeast
overnight, reaching West Virginia by morning and continuing to the
southeast. The cluster is likely to be dissipating as it reaches
North Carolina, bringing some scattered showers to the western half
of the state, but the thunderstorm potential is minimal with this
wave.

However, as a cold front moves to the south behind the initial
cluster of showers, this will provide more widespread forcing for
precipitation and is likely to bring showers to much of central
North Carolina, with the highest chances for rain to the east of US-
1. It is with this second round of precipitation that severe weather
will be potentially locally. The reason for noting the initial
cluster of showers is that the remnant cloud cover is likely to
reduce the amount of instability farther to the west, reducing, but
not eliminating, the chance for severe weather in the Triad. Most of
the area will have MUCAPE values at least 2000 J/kg, and the
effective shear will be 30 to 40 kts, with the greatest shear to the
northwest. The most likely timing for severe weather will be from 4-
8pm, moving from northwest to southeast. The 06Z forecast from the
Storm Prediction Center is very similar to their forecast from
Monday afternoon: the primary threat will come from damaging wind
gusts, there will be a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes,
greatest from the Triangle north and east, and isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out to the west of US-1. All rain should come to an
end shortly after midnight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

Low VFR to MVFR visibility restrictions in a band of now mostly
stratiform rain will be possible for the next couple of hours at RWI
and Piedmont sites. Deep convection will meanwhile continue to
develop --with scattered coverage along an outflow and differential
heating boundary draped at 18Z from near TNB to EXX and in a broken
line along a synoptic cold front over the lwr OH Valley-- then
propagate generally sewd and across the NC Piedmont between 19Z-02Z
and, with lower probability of occurrence and if it holds together
amid lesser instability and debris cloudiness from the
aforementioned stratiform rain, into the RWI and FAY between 23-04Z.

In the wake of the convection, clearing aloft will result atop
residually moist low-levels and soils tonight, such that areas of
mist/fog and low stratus may develop especially at ern sites. VFR
conditions and a surface nwly wind, with gustiness into the teens
kts especially over the Piedmont, will follow for Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected until probably
Sunday, when lift ahead of a mid/upr-level low approaching from the
OH Valley will favor above average chances of showers/storms and
flight restrictions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...MWS