689
FXUS62 KRAH 111018
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly move north along the SE coast into Sunday.
High pressure will follow the coastal storm for much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

Rain will spread into the area from the south and east later this
morning and afternoon.

Windy conditions with NE winds 15-25 mph. Gusts to 30+ mph possible,
especially later today and tonight.

Timing of the rain due to the developing coastal low pressure off
the FL coast moving north will be the main issue today. The strong
high pressure centered off the New England coast extending down the
Appalachians will continue to weaken. Low pressure will track from
off the FL coast northward toward the SC and SE NC coastline later
today and tonight. There continued to be a bit of question marks
concerning the timing of the rain, the placement and amounts, and
the associated winds. Hi-res models continue to be quicker with the
rainfall overspreading the region. The operational GFS and other
models are slower with this timing. Given the amount of dry air in
place early today, we may split the difference to account for the
weakening and retreating dry air associated with the once strong
Canadian high pressure. SE areas should see rainfall by late
morning. This should spread north and west through the day,
reaching the Triangle mid to late day and the Triad by evening. Then
later today/tonight it appears that rain will become widespread with
some heavier rainfall in the Coastal Plain into the eastern Piedmont
tonight. Due to the current very dry antecedent conditions, the
expected QPF of 1.5 to 2 inches SE, around 1 inch interior, and less
than 0.5 or 0.25 in the NW, any flooding should be minor.

Winds will become NE at 15-25 mph this morning, even in the Triad
where the pressure gradient will remain tight. Expect some gusts to
30 to 35 mph, especially in the Coastal Plain later today and
tonight with the rainfall. This is not expected to pose a widespread
hazard.

Highs today should hold in the mid 60s to around 70. Lows tonight
mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

Areas of rain, drizzle, fog, and continued cloudy and cool.
Remaining rather windy.

The coastal low is expected to move slowly up the coast into the mid-
Atlantic region by Sunday into Monday morning. The mid/upper low
positions is still a bit questionable, but should still affect
central NC Sunday. Expect NE winds 15-25 mph with periods of rain
and drizzle. QPF for Sunday through the end of the event should be
lighter than tonight. Expect an additional 0.25 to possibly 0.50 in
the east and central areas, with 0.10 or so in the west. Storm
totals of 1.5 to 2 inches SE with less than 0.5 in the west. Highs
Sunday should hold in the 60s. The windy conditions with the NE
winds 15-25 mph should diminish somewhat Sunday night. Expect low
overcast conditions Sunday into Sunday night. Lows Sunday night
mostly 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

* No hazardous weather expected Mon thru Fri

The coastal low or lows on Sun near or off the NC coast will
gradually shift east, with the primary low forecast to be east of
Delmarva Mon night to early Tue. Barring some outlier solutions,
which bring the low inland Sun into Mon, most light rain and drizzle
should come to and end Mon, though could linger for the morning
hours over the northern Coastal Plain. Cloud cover will gradually
lessen through the day, slowest to lift in the east, with some gusts
to 20 mph into early afternoon. Highs will stay below average in the
mid 60s NE to low 70s SW. Lows to be in the low to mid 50s under
clearing skies.

High pressure ridging extending east from the southern Plains and MS
valley will favor a gradual rise in highs to above average from the
low/mid 70s Tue to mid/upper 70s Wed. Models and their ensembles are
in fairly good agreement that a dry cold front will advance
southward Wed night from the OH valley and Great Lakes region. A
cool 1020+ mb high settles over the region by Fri. Highs Thu and Fri
will thus trend near to slightly below normal in the upper 60s to
low 70s. We could see low/mid 40s for lows Fri morning under the
cool high pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

24-hour TAF period: Timing of the low clouds and rainfall are the
main challenges. It appears IFR conditions will overspread the
region from the southeast this afternoon, along with areas of rain.
CIGS should lower into the IFR to LIFR tonight with lowering VSBYS
in rain and fog. Most of the steady rain may stay just SE of the
Triad terminals into the night, before arriving late tonight.
Surface winds will increase to 15-25 kt today and tonight. Some
gusts may exceed 30 knots.

Beyond 12Z Sunday: This period should feature IFR to LIFR conditions
with areas of rain and fog. Improvements may be limited until Monday
morning if the main upper low lingers as some models suggest.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...RAH