109
FXUS62 KRAH 140655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances in anomalously moist, west southwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Carolinas through tonight. An area
of low pressure and weak, backdoor cold front will move across NC on
Friday, with following dry and seasonably warm high pressure for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

*Periods of showers and storms will continue through this evening
with isolated flooding possible

A series of upper level disturbances moving through a very moist
airmass(PWATs 2-2.5+ standard deviations) will keep periods of
showers and storms through this evening. One disturbance is
supporting a weakening cluster of showers/storms over the NW
Piedmont. Additional isolated to widely scattered convection remains
possible through daybreak.

A well-defined MCV currently over GA will lift NE across the area
midday into the early evening. In response to this feature, a weak
sfc wave reflection is expected to develop over southeastern NC,
while a surface trough lingers along the lee of the southern
Appalachians and a cold front begins to sag south into the southern
Mid-Atlantic states.

The greatest convective coverage and heavy rain threat is expected
this afternoon and evening over the far southern/southeastern zones,
where stronger moisture flux convergence will set up near the
developing sfc wave. A secondary area of more numerous storm
coverage and potential for heavy rain is across the far NE zones,
near the approaching cold front. While localized 1-2" are possible,
HREF LPPM/PPM probability for 1in/3hr rainfall remain low and mainly
confined to the northeast and eastern edges of the forecast area. As
such, no Flood Watch will be issued at this time.

Elsewhere, convection will be more scattered and diurnally driven,
with most activity diminishing before midnight.

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight 70-75 with areas of low clouds/stratus apt
to develop across the eastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM Wednesday...

* Marginal risk of excessive rain Fri, though overall threat appears
  to lessen

On Fri, a weak shear axis will persist along the NC/VA border, with
a remnant MCV somewhere off the NC coast. The highest PW`s aoa 2+
inches will start to shift mainly across our southern areas of the
southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. A jet
streak will still be present over southern VA. Storm chances will be
possible anywhere over central NC again, primarily along subtle
surface boundaries. Although the marginal risk of excessive rainfall
remains in place, it appears it may be somewhat overdone with a lack
of discernible forcing. Highs should hover near average in the mid
to upper 80s, with some heat indices near 100 over the Triangle and
Sandhills. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 112 PM Wednesday...

* Drier over the weekend into early next week, with next best storm
  chances by the middle of next week

Heading into the weekend and into early next week, drier air starts
to work in from the north. A mid-level ridge across the Mid MS
valley will also start to exert its influence, allowing for
subsidence across the region. While the storm chances cannot be
completely ruled out, it does appear drier than the past several
days. A trough trying to approach by the middle of next week could
favor a frontal approach for better storm chances Wed. This same
trough may keep tropical system Erin out to sea and away from NC.
Much of the ensemble tracks show this trend, but it is still too far
out to tell if any impacts might be felt.

As for highs, we should generally hover in the mid/upper 80s, with
perhaps some low 90s Mon. A slight cool-down from increased storm
chances is possible Tue/Wed in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM Thursday...

Upper level disturbances moving through the region will continue to
support periods of showers and storms through this evening. A small
storm cluster and associated sub-VFR restrictions will impact KINT
and KGSO over the next hour. Additional showers and storms could
affect other TAF locations overnight, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs at this time.

Recent model guidance suggests less sub-VFR stratus/low cloud
development overnight, with predominately VFR conditions expected
through daybreak.

A well-defined MCV currently over GA will track NE across the area
midday into the early evening. Greater convective coverage is
expected at KFAY, with more scattered, diurnally driven activity
possible at the other terminals.

This evening and tonight:, IFR-MVFR stratus is possible, especially
across eastern TAF sites near a weak sfc low and accompanying
moisture pooling.

Outlook: Lower coverage of diurnally driven showers and storms
Friday into the weekend. Morning fog and/or low stratus will also be
possible each day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL