462
FXUS62 KRAH 151858
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
258 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A cold front and accompanying chance of showers/storms will
  settle through cntl NC Fri-Sat, with less hot temperatures (than
  previously forecast) in the post-frontal regime on Sat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...

1) Canadian high pressure will persist ahead of a cold front and
accompanying good chance of showers/storms that will settle across
cntl NC on Fri and linger mainly across srn/sern NC on Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Canadian high pressure will persist ahead of a cold
front and accompanying good chance of showers/storms that will
settle across cntl NC on Fri and linger mainly across srn/sern NC on
Sat.

Downstream of an anomalous mid/upr-level ridge now building across
the srn Appalachians, Canadian surface high pressure will extend
down the Middle Atlantic coast and into the Carolinas, while
gradually weakening, through early Thursday. A lee trough will
develop over the southern Middle Atlantic Piedmont later Thursday
and precede a cold front that will settle across the region Friday-
Saturday.

Seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels will gradually
moderate/modify ahead of the cold front. While a shower or storm
will become possible over the far nw Piedmont by Thu afternoon-
evening, the relative best chance of convection will exist along the
passing cold front throughout cntl NC on Fri, then linger along and
just behind the front (where moisture/instability will remain)
mainly across srn/sern NC on Sat. Sat will otherwise not be as hot
as previously forecast in the post-frontal regime. Return flow Sun
into early next week will then yield increasing surface
temperatures/instability and slight to low chances for diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Canadian high pressure over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic will
favor mainly VFR conditions in cntl NC for at least the next couple
of days. The only exception to VFR will be a chance of visibility
restrictions in shallow, radiation fog/mist at RWI due to local
effects Wed morning.

Outlook: A risk of shallow, radiation fog/mist at RWI will continue
for Thu and Fri morning. Widely scattered convection over wrn NC Thu
afternoon may drift into the INT vicinity by early evening, followed
by a better chance of convection along a passing cold front Friday
afternoon-evening, especially over the Piedmont. Nely flow behind
that front will increase the chances for IFR-MVFR ceilings Sat
morning, lowest and most likely at INT/GSO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...MWS