104
FXUS62 KRAH 211851 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
251 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Arctic high pressure centered over the Midwest will gradually
weaken and modify as it moves into the Southern Appalachians through
Sunday. The airmass across the region will warm ahead of the
next storm system that arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 109 PM Friday...

Temperatures will rise a few more degrees this afternoon before
sunset, but generally should peak around 40. Any residual gustiness
this afternoon should subside by sunset, although some light
stirring is likely overnight. 12Z guidance continues to suggest
mostly clear conditions are expected overnight. However, as was
noted in this morning`s discussion, light stirring and a bit thicker
low-level thicknesses will promote a bit warmer overnight lows in
upper teens to lower 20s. Given the lighter winds, apparent
temperatures should remain above cold weather advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 109 PM Friday...

Lingering wnwly flow early Saturday will turn a bit more swly aloft
Saturday afternoon/evening as a potent short-wave approaches. The
short-wave will then eject east across central NC Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

At the sfc, high pressure centered over NC/VA will move east and
offshore through Saturday evening.  Light flow early in the day will
organize a bit more from the ssw Saturday afternoon but remain
generally light. Given the return flow, temperatures will moderate
some back into the mid to upper 40s to around 50 in the far
southwest.

PWAT will still remain quite below normal and thus despite the upper
forcing associated with the mid-level short-wave, central NC should
only see mid to high level cloudiness but no rainfall Saturday or
Saturday night (point soundings also indicate a quite dry sub-cloud
layer).

Overnight lows will dip into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

* Temperatures should moderate Sunday and Monday, then remain above
  normal through at least Thursday.

Sunday through Tuesday: Aloft, a s/w will move esewd across central
NC Sun night/Mon. Another s/w will approach from the nw late Mon/Mon
night and move across the region Tue/Tue night. At the surface, high
pressure will remain in place over the region through Tue, while an
area of low pressure lifts newd along but well off the Southeast US
coast and another moves across the nrn Gulf and across FL. A dry
cold front will move esewd across the area Tue/Tue night. As for
temperatures, Sun/Sun night should still be near to below normal,
with highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. A return
to above normal temperatures is expected Mon and Tue, with highs in
the mid to upper 60s by Tue and lows Tue night in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Wednesday onward: Aloft, a broad longwave trough over the cntl and
ern CONUS will shift ewd and amplify over the ern US as nrn stream
shortwaves move through it from Wed-Fri. At the surface, high
pressure may briefly build in from the south on Wed ahead of another
low pressure system and cold front. As the low moves through the OH
Valley/Great Lakes and into the Northeast US, the attendant cold
front will move ewd across central NC. However, there are still
timing differences amongst the medium-range guidance, with fropa Wed
night/early Thu (GFS) or late Thu/Thu night (EC). For now, expect
generally high pressure to build in behind the front late-week. The
best chance for any showers will be along and ahead of the front,
but there is also uncertainty wrt how much moisture will be left
with the system by the time it moves into central NC and when that
will be. The fropa timing will also impact the temperature forecast,
but for now expect above normal temperatures through Thu, returning
to near normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1159 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will persist through the 24 hour TAF period as post-
frontal dry air remains in place over central NC.  Any lingering
nwly sfc gustiness will largely subside by sunset tonight. Overnight
stirring will be possible, but winds should remain relatively light
tonight and through 18Z Saturday. Some high level cloudiness may
move across central NC by the end of the 24 hour TAF period, but
terminals will remain VFR.

Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected through the period.
However, a southern stream wave/potential coastal low may promote
mid level cloudiness late Sunday into early Monday morning. As of
now, suspect that VFR conditions will persist, but there could be a
brief period of sub-VFR conditions in the south and east during this
time. Additional light rain may be possible Tuesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti