260
FXUS62 KRAH 220622
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southward across the region through this
afternoon with high pressure settling into the area through
Wednesday. Surface high will slide eastward Thursday with a
return to unseasonably warm and humid conditions Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* Relatively cooler and drier air filters into central NC from the
  northeast shifting showers/storms south of the area through the
  afternoon.

Morning surface analysis shows predominantly northerly surface winds
across the area due to a weak trough axis across SC, but the primary
cold front and noticeable drop of theta-e airmass is generally
extending along the VA/NC border. Preceding this cold front, SPC
Mesoanalysis suggest an unstable and weak MLCIN airmass remains
present over central NC. 00z RAOB`s from GSO and MHX show tall
skinny CAPE profiles with PWAT values 2.12 and 2.29 inches
respectively (near or exceeding the daily maximum according to SPC
sounding climatology). This will sustain pockets of isolated to
potentially widely scattered showers through this morning as the
cold front oozes southward and MCV`s ripple through the west-
northwest mid-level flow.

00z HREF and 18z REFS are in good agreement that this anomalous
moisture will continue to sag southward as high pressure currently
over southern Ontario slides east-southeast and continues to build
down into and through central NC. Some showers/storms will be
possible across the far southern forecast area where 2+ PWATs,
low/mid 70s dew points, and 1000-2000 SBCAPE will be present by early
afternoon. However, the window for showers/storms will be limited as
this regime will be shifting southward through the afternoon and any
storms that develop will be moving southward into SC.

Highs will be a few degrees below previous days behind the fropa and
most places will not reach 90 degrees, expect for across the
Sandhills where low 90s are possible but dependent on the erosion of
stratus. Light northeast winds and dew points falling into the 60s
behind the front will result in a noticeably more pleasant afternoon
compared to the previous few weeks. As high pressure continues to
filter into the region, a reasonably tight gradient across the
Southeast will keep most sites from completely decoupling overnight,
but the newly deposited airmass should allow temps to drop into the
mid 60s to around 70s. Lows may dip below 70 degrees in the Triad
and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in the
Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is currently
at 30 days consecutive days with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal
to 70 degrees which is the 4th longest stretch in the period or
record. If this snap is not broken, RDU may set the all-time record
(currently 34 days set in June/August of 1906) as the heat
gradually returns through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Tuesday...

* Dry conditions, near-normal temperatures, and less muggy
  weather continues for another day.

Persistence forecast as the cold frontal passage from Tues stalls
across the Southeast, well south of central NC. Northeasterly
surface winds will continue to veer towards easterly as the surface
high extending into the region subtly slides eastward into the
western Atlantic. PWAT values will be closer to normal and below
1.5" for most of central NC with drier air aloft most likely to mix
down to the surface with diurnal heating, resulting in dew points in
the 60s for most of the forecast area. Some low 70s dew points may
leak into the Coastal Plain within the easterly flow and result in
some isolated showers along the seabreeze. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected for central NC. Highs will similarly reach into the mid
80s to low 90s by early afternoon and settle in the mid 60s to low
70s by early Thurs morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

*Heat and humidity returns Friday: Widespread 90s expected, with
peak heat indices 103-107 F east of US-1 corridor.

*Rain chances remain modest: Typical summertime 20-30% daily rain
chances, highest in the afternoon, especially Sunday into Monday.

An expansive mid/upper level ridge will remain anchored across the
southeastern US through the weekend before finally shifting west of
the area early next week. This anomalous ridge(+2 to +2.5 standard
deviations will be the main driver in the heat wave that will return
Friday and peaks over the weekend. Following highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s Thursday, lower to mid 90s will be commonplace Saturday
and Sunday. Combined with BL dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat
indices will increase into the lower 100s Friday and approach Heat
Advisory Criteria (105 F) Saturday and Sunday across the eastern
Piedmont, Sandhills, and coastal plain. A slight decrease in
temperatures is possible Monday as mid-level heights lower and the
ridge retrogrades westward.

On Thursday, a stalled, weakening front lifting north into the area
and accompanying axis of higher PWATS ~ 2.0" may enhance rain
chances slightly. Otherwise, expect more typical summertime
convection Friday and Saturday with daily coverage in the
climatological ranges (20-30%), primarily driven by daytime heating.
An uptick in rain chances is possible late Sunday into Monday as the
upper ridge weakens and retrogrades west, potentially allowing weak
shortwave energy to move into the region.  &&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

A cold front dropping south through the area may support an isolated
shower or storm overnight. In it`s wake, widespread MVFR ceilings
with pockets of IFR ceilings are expected to develop, especially at
KINT and KGSO, where the greatest potential for IFR exists.

These sub-VFR ceilings will be slow to lift, with gradual
improvement expected through late morning into the early afternoon.
KINT and KGSO likely to be the last terminals to return to VFR.

This afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers may re-develop
across southern portions of the forecast area. However, coverage is
expected to remain too limited to warrant a mention in the KFAY TAF.

Outlook: Areas of stratus or fog are possible again Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected
Wednesday, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
returning Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 25:
KGSO: 78/2010
KRDU: 80/2010
KFAY: 78/2016

July 26:
KGSO: 76/2016
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 80/2005

July 27:
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016

July 28:
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH