025
FXUS62 KRAH 162018
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
318 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front will move across eastern NC and
offshore this afternoon. Pacific high pressure will follow and build
across and offshore the southern Middle Atlantic through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

* Unseasonably mild 70s (to around 80) of this afternoon will turn
  much colder and more-seasonable tonight

Within progressive flow in the westerlies, a mid/upr-level cyclone
will move across the Northeast and Atlantic Canada, and a high
amplitude ridge will progress across the Plains. Nwly flow and
rising heights will prevail between the two and over cntl NC.

At the surface, a cold front will move across sern NC and offshore
this afternoon. High pressure, centered this afternoon at 1019 mb
over the mid/upr MS Valley, will build/ridge sewd and into the
Southeast. A portion of this ridge will probably separate and break
off over the Carolinas by early Mon. Strong and gusty nwly winds and
cold, dry advection of this afternoon will lessen and cease gusting
around or shortly after sunset, then gradually diminish to light,
and locally calm overnight.

Although wind and thermal profiles will be supportive of
orographically-enhanced cirrus overnight, both GOES-E satellite data
and upr-level moisture progs depict limited moisture upstream. So
while cirrus may occasionally flash across the Piedmont, no
prolonged or widespread areas are anticipated. Skies will
consequently be clear or mainly so. When combined with CAA and
pockets of stronger radiational cooling focused over the srn
Piedmont and Sandhills, in closest proximity to the aforementioned
break-off high and calm, will favor low temperatures mostly in the
lwr-mid 30s, except upr 30s in the ern Sandhills and srn Coastal
Plain.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* The only below normal temperatures in the current forecast.

* Marginal fire weather concerns as dry air will stay in place.

After the passage of the dry cold front on Sunday afternoon/evening,
high pressure will start to build in over the region through the day
on Monday. This will support below normal temperatures, with highs
ranging from the mid 50s in the northeast to the low and perhaps mid
60s in the southwest. Lows overnight look to dip into the low to mid
30s.

Marginally concerning fire weather conditions look possible as well.
The dry airmass will stay in place under the high pressure, with low
RH values in the upper teens to the low/mid 20s. The stronger wind
component looks less likely, but there does appear to be a period of
gusty northwesterly winds for a few hours after sunrise. Gusts
between 15 and 20 mph look to be the most probable, with occasional
gusts potentially reaching 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

* Marginal fire concerns continue Tue
* Low confidence rain chances early Wed and late Fri/Sat

A shortwave over the upper MS valley Tue is forecast to track ESE
into MD by early Wed. Meanwhile, high pressure will shift offshore,
allowing return flow to take over by the afternoon, and a warm front
lifts north into the lower OH valley and southern VA with broad low
pressure to the west. Relative humidity will again be a concern with
dewpoints slow to recover, with low to middle 20s percent. Winds, on
the other hand, will range only in the 15-20 mph for gusts, highest
over the NW Piedmont, resulting in a marginal fire danger risk.
Highs will be near normal in the upper 50s NE to upper 60s SW.

The rain chances with the warm front Tue night to early Wed look
meager, given the energy skirting to our north in VA. The best
chance appears across our far N and NE counties on the border with
southern VA with some isentropic ascent atop the frontal zone. Rain
amounts still appear light at best.

The late-week system late Fri into Sat appears to be trending drier,
with several ensemble cluster solutions and AI models suggesting the
energy gets shunted to the north of the Carolinas with ridging to
our south. If anything, the best chance of rain will be Fri night to
mid-morning Sat. Rain amounts, if anything, still appear light.

Temperatures will largely hover above average, with some well above
normal readings Fri/Sat in the SW flow with mid/upper 70s. We may be
flirting with record highs at some climate sites Sat depending on
the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

VFR. Strong, wnwly to nwly surface winds, mostly between 15-20 kts
and with gusts around 30-35 kts through sunset, will diminish with
nocturnal cooling and the related development of a shallow, near
surface temperature inversion tonight. Strong wnwly to nwly winds to
around 30-35 kts will meanwhile persist above that shallow inversion
and favor low-level turbulence for most of the night, strongest this
evening. Daytime heating and mixing will cause surface winds to re-
strengthen to around 10 kts, with gusts to around 20 kts, after 13-
14Z Mon.

Outlook: Light, probably VFR rain will be possible along a frontal
zone that will waver invof NC late Tue into Thu, with any associated
flight restrictions more likely across VA and adjacent far nrn NC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the nrn Piedmont and
nrn Coastal Plain of NC through 6 PM EST, while an Increased Fire
Danger statement will remain in effect through the same time for the
remainder of cntl NC.

Strong wnwly to nwly winds, behind a cold front now moving across
ern NC, will continue through sunset. During the same time, sharply
drier air characterized by surface dewpoints that will fall through
the 30s-40s F will further dry, and adiabatically warm, amid strong
downslope flow through the afternoon, such that minimum RH values in
the upr teens to mid 20s percent will be likely, lowest across nw
Piedmont.

A very dry, post-frontal airmass will remain over cntl NC on Mon,
when associated minimum RH values will be below critical levels and
between 15-25 percent. Nwly surface winds will be weaker than Sun,
however, but still around 10 mph sustained and with gusts to around
20 mph.

While the airmass will begin to modify in a developing return flow
regime by Tue, NWP guidance are notoriously to fast with the degree
of moisture recovery. As such, minimum RH values will likely again
be critical and mostly between 20-25 percent Tue afternoon, during
which time swly winds will be strongest at 10-15 mph and most
frequently gusty to near 20 mph over the Piedmont.

Additional Increased Fire Danger statements may consequently be
necessary for Mon and Tue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
041-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...LH
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS