712
FXUS62 KRAH 181831
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south across central NC tonight and
Tuesday. Surface high pressure centered over Maine will extend into
the region on Tuesday and retreat on Wednesday as Hurricane Erin
moves northeast just off and parallel to the Carolina coastline late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

* A few slow moving storms with torrential downpours are possible
  into the early evening, mainly east of I-95.
* Widespread low clouds and perhaps a little fog will develop across
  the area after midnight.

The latest surface analysis shows a diffuse cold front dropping
south out of VA into northern NC. Behind the front, there is a
subtle air mass change across the Chesapeake Bay region. Across
central NC, it is another warm and humid day with temperatures in
the upper 80s and dewpoints mainly in the lower 70s with mid 70s dew
points in the Coastal Plain. The airmass across central NC is weakly
to moderately unstable with the greatest instability stretching
from the central Coastal Plain west across the Sandhills and into
the southern Piedmont.

After a slow/delayed start, CAMs suggest that scattered convection
will begin to fire over the next few hours in the central coastal
region, across the NC mountains and perhaps the Sandhills/Southern
Piedmont. This convection will tend to drift southwest, peaking in
coverage between 4 and 8pm and then waning. This convection is slow
moving and a few locations may experience some torrential downpours.
The signal for the heaviest rain looks to be focused across the
Coastal Region near route 17. There is a subtle signal that a rogue
shower may develop around midnight across the Piedmont, otherwise
generally dry conditions are expected overnight. The scattered
cumulus clouds across the area this afternoon will settle and
thicken into a blanket of low overcast late tonight. With the clouds
and little airmass change, lows tonight should range within a few
degrees of 70. -Blaes
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Monday...

* Cooler with considerable cloudiness and a cool northeast flow.

Weak ridging aloft will extend across NC early Tuesday as Hurricane
Erin moves north well east of the Bahamas. Mid level heights fall on
Tuesday night as the tropical cyclone lifts north. At the surface,
the weak front drifting south across northern NC tonight will
continue to settle south on Tuesday dropping to near the NC/SC
border. A northeast low level flow will be established across the
area and continue into Tuesday night.

Tuesday will begin with a widespread low overcast across the region.
With time the ceilings will lift and some breaks should develop
which should allow for some heating and destablization. Still the
clouds should suppress highs a bit with highs ranging fro the lower
80s in the Triad to the mid 80s across the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain. There isn`t a strong signal for much in the way of
convection on Tuesday with less instability. However, CAMS suggest a
few showers and perhaps a storms are possible during the afternoon
and evening, primarily across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills.
Another round of late night stratus is expected on Tuesday night
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

* Hurricane Erin still expected to recurve well offshore, with very
  little impact to central NC.
* While the primary impacts will be confined to the coastal areas of
  the state, a tightened pressure gradient late Wednesday through
  mid-day Thursday will result in slightly elevated wind across
  central NC during that time with speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts
  ~25 mph.
* In terms of Erin-related rain chances... it`s possible that one or
  two bands of light rain on the very outer fringes of Erin could
  move ashore and push as far west as I-95 late Wednesday through
  early Thursday; otherwise, a front just north of Erin will get
  pulled southward in the northerly flow on the west side of Erin
  and cross central NC during mid-to-late Thursday...possibly
  resulting in a stray shower or two pretty much anywhere across
  central NC during that frontal passage.
* Behind the front, high pressure will move southward along the mid-
  Atlantic coastal plain, providing cooler drier air to the eastern
  half of NC Friday through at least mid-day Saturday.
* Elsewhere, Thursday`s cold front will stall across SC and
  dissipate, leaving a pool of moisture and instability across much
  of the Southeast, which will then get drawn back northward into
  and across the western half of NC late Friday and Saturday.  This
  setup will result in a PoPs varying from west to east across the
  state, with highest PoPs Friday through Saturday across our
  western zones while our eastern zones should remain mostly dry.
* By Sunday, a l/w trough deepening over the northeast quadrant of
  North America will push a front toward our area Sunday and
  eventually through Sunday night, with increased rain chances
  during this time.
* Drying out (perhaps briefly) on Monday.
* Temps during this time will be within a few deg either side of
  climo values (mid-80s is typical high this time of year), with the
  coolest days Friday and Saturday initially behind the
  aforementioned cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Monday...

* Widespread IFR CIGS are expected to develop tonight and persist
  into Tuesday morning.

Widespread VFR conditions are noted across central NC with a
developing area of fairly flat cumulus clouds with bases around
3.5kft. A diffuse surface boundary is dropping south from southern
VA and will shift south and southeast tonight. A weak to moderately
unstable airmass across eastern and southern NC will promote the
development of scattered convection this afternoon, especially in
the coastal region and far southeastern areas that will tend to
drift and propagate west and southwest. Can`t rule out brief periods
of sub-VFR conditions in convection, mainly at KRWI/KFAY late this
afternoon and evening. Guidance also shows other isolated convection
across the mountains and a few rogue blips across the Piedmont
overnight but coverage and confidence is insufficient to include in
the forecast.

More significantly, confidence is high that widespread stratus will
develop overnight, initially across the north and northeast and then
spreading area wide with CIGS initially in the MVFR range quickly
falling into the IFR range. These restrictions will persist through
mid morning on Tuesday before CIGs begin to lift and some breaks in
the overcast arrive toward midday.

Looking Beyond 18Z Tuesday: Widespread stratus on Tuesday will give
way to some breaks and perhaps a few showers or storms on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Another round of stratus is expected on
Tuesday night. An approaching cold front may trigger additional
showers or storms late Thursday or Friday. -Blaes
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM..np
AVIATION...Blaes