051
FXUS62 KRAH 310937
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
437 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across NC this morning and southern VA
this afternoon. An area of low pressure and trailing cold front will
then move east across the region early tonight. Weak, Pacific high
pressure will follow and build across the Southeast through
Saturday. Stronger, continental Polar high pressure will then build
briefly across and offshore the Northeast and Middle Atlantic
through the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM Friday...

* Unseasonably warm, with near record highs in the upr 70s at FAY
  and RDU

* Windy, with swly gusts mostly in the 30s mph and with
  isolated/infrequent ones greater than 40 mph possible

* Wet for 4-6 hours this evening-early tonight, with the passage of
  a leading, katafrontal line of convection and following anafrontal
  rain

A mid-level cyclone comprised this morning of a couple of separate
vorticity centers over wrn MO and the Red River, respectively, will
devolve into an open wave trough while accelerating ewd to the srn
New England through Middle Atlantic coasts by 12Z Sat. The
resulting, positively-tilted trough will lift newd across the OH and
lwr MS Valleys today and Middle Atlantic and Carolinas --with strong
forcing for ascent characterized 100-150 meter 500 mb height falls--
tonight. Associated QG-forcing for ascent will be accompanied by a
zone of strong and tropospheric-deep/sloping frontogenesis that will
likewise move across cntl NC tonight.

At the surface, a warm front will "move/mix" nwd with diurnal
heating across NC this morning, then into srn/cntl VA where it will
stall late this afternoon-evening. An area of low pressure and a
couple of cold fronts will then move east across the region tonight,
followed by Pacific high pressure that will build across the
Southeast through Saturday.

After a lingering band of rain/showers over nrn NC lifts nwd into VA
this morning, it still appears that most of day will be dry with a
capped boundary layer that will remain so until the aforementioned
forcing for ascent arrives from the west very late in the afternoon
over the srn/wrn NC Piedmont and elsewhere in cntl NC early tonight.
As such, strong diurnal heating and unseasonably warm conditions
will develop within a growing warm sector characterized by surface
temperatures expected to range from mid-upr 70s across the Sandhills
and Coastal Plain to mid/upr 60s over the nrn/nwrn Piedmont. That
warming and mixing will also favor the development of strong and
gusty swly surface winds that will gust frequently in the 30s mph
and infrequently above 40 mph.

The strong and coupled forcing for ascent noted above should
maintain the band of leading-line, katafrontal convection and
trailing anafrontal rain from the TN/lwr MS Valleys this morning and
newd and across cntl NC mainly between 22Z Fri-08Z Sat. While the
forecast models continue to depict very weak/scant CAPE over cntl
NC, lightning with the upstream katafront has been more extensive
than what model forecasts and SPC objectively-analyzed thermodynamic
fields would suggest. Additionally, there has already been an
isolated elevated thunderstorm based atypically high and around 9-10
thousand ft AGL that moved across Chatham and Wake Counties earlier
this morning. As such, a slight chance of thunder will be advertised
for an hour or two at any given location, along the leading-line
convection, this evening. Following cool/dry air advection should
then cause temperatures to cool into the 40s, to lwr 50s in the
Coastal Plain, through Sat morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

Surface high pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will shift
east through the day as its extends south across the Mid-Atlantic
region before shifting off the New England coast Sunday morning.
Expected mostly sunny skies Saturday with highs in the upper 50s
north to mid 60s south. Light northwest winds in the morning will
shift to a northeasterly wind in the afternoon as a dry frontal
boundary moves across NC. Temperatures Saturday night will be the
coldest of the 7 day forecast with overnight lows in the low 30s
near the VA/NC border to mid/upper 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Much of the long term will be dry with well above average
temperatures. A weak upper level disturbance will move across the OH
valley Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next surface frontal
boundary. While Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry the
timing of this system has been inconstant with the long range
models. For now, kept mentionable (15% +) PoPs out of the region
until at least Wednesday night. As the front moves across the
Appalachian Mtns, it could stall resulting in a later onset time for
precipitation. For now have slight to low end chance PoPs late
Wednesday night through Thursday and will keep a close watch on how
models trend on timing for the front, which could hold off until
Friday. Temps, as mentioned before, will be 15-20 degrees above
normal with highs increasing from the low 50s to upper 50s Sunday to
low to mid 70s by Thursday. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s with
areas in the south in the low to mid 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

An area of light, VFR rain will continue to glance the nrn NC
Piedmont (including INT/GSO) while otherwise lifting nwd into VA
through ~10-12Z. While no flight restrictions will directly result
from that light rain, an area of MVFR to low VFR ceilings now
developing nwd across cntl NC may result in a temporary MVFR ceiling
at INT/GSO through the same time. Strong and strengthening, sly to
sswly winds aloft will also result in a good chance of low-level
wind shear this morning, followed by strong and gusty surface winds
of 30-35 kts with daytime heating this afternoon. Rain/showers will
become widespread and be accompanied by IFR-MVFR restrictions along
and behind a cold front that will cross the region mainly between
22Z Fri and 06Z Sat.

Outlook: MVFR-based stratocumulus will be possible at INT/GSO Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

January 31:
KRDU: 77/1950
KFAY: 78/2002

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...