450
FXUS62 KRAH 191101
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heat Advisories possible across much of the region Thursday.

* Continued increasing chance of showers/storms (wet period
  expected) Thursday afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

1) Heat shifts a bit south today, with Heat Advisories for
Fayetteville to Clinton.

2) Another heat advisory appears likely - and extending north into
the Piedmont Thursday (the last in this series of high heat and
humidity).

3) High chances of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday
afternoon into Saturday. Daily highs will be tempered (mostly 80s
Friday and Saturday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat shifts a bit south today, with Heat Advisories
for Fayetteville to Clinton.

Dew points mixed into the 60s over much of the Piedmont Tuesday.
This aided in keeping the heat indices below 100 for the most part,
expect in the SE.

Weak high pressure over western NC today will lead to additional
mixing today with a light NW flow over much of our region. The
hottest temperatures will be found over the Sandhills and SE Coastal
Plain this afternoon, well south of the Triad and Triangle Areas.
Fayetteville and Clinton should top out around 95 to 97, with heat
indices up to 106 in the Clinton area. As previously mentioned,
Fayetteville and Cumberland County will be in the Heat Advisory
area even with the heat index expected to fall a bit short of 105
degrees. It is the experimental HeatRisk product that continued to
depict a level 4 of 4 in that region extending into portions of
Sampson County. Elsewhere, it appears that highs will be in the 90-
95 range, with heat index values mostly in the 90s (near 100 across
the far southern and eastern Piedmont into the Coastal Plain).

Key message 2... Another heat advisory appear likely - and extending
north into the Piedmont Thursday (the last in this series of high
heat and humidity).

One more day in the 90s with potential heat index values of 100 to
110 expected Thursday from NW to SE. There is a chance of PM storms,
especially late day into the evening Thursday.

However, the heat is expected to be tamped down by increasing
cloudiness Friday into portions of the weekend, with a much better
chance of showers/storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High chances of showers and thunderstorms expected
Thursday afternoon into Saturday. Daily highs will be tempered
(mostly 80s Friday and Saturday).

Models continue to highlight Friday into Saturday for showers and
thunderstorms associated with the approaching trough from the west
and very high PW values. A few models suggest late Thursday into
Thursday evening may become active with thunderstorms as well over
portions of hte area. Some localized flooding is possible,
especially in the central and east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 655 AM Wednesday...

Some patchy fog/mist has developed early this morning over mainly
the northern Coastal Plain where rain fell yesterday. So can`t rule
out a sub-VFR visibility at RWI until 13z when any remaining fog
over the area should dissipate.

Other than a slight chance of showers and storms along the sea
breeze in the far SE (including FAY) this afternoon and early
evening, much of the area will be dry and VFR today. Winds will be
light (5 kts or less) and out of the N/NE through this morning,
turning more NW in the afternoon.

Very light to calm winds and lingering low-level moisture mean
patchy fog/low stratus can`t be ruled out around FAY late tonight
and early Thursday morning, especially if any rain does end up
falling.

Outlook: A more active pattern is expected as early as Thurs
afternoon, but especially Thurs night through at least Sat.
Convection is likely to become more widespread during this time,
diurnally maximized in the afternoon/evening, and may have a
tendency to linger into the early overnight hours at times.
Additionally, brief, moist northeasterly flow may also bring more
persistent sub-VFR cigs as well, especially on Fri into Fri night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940
August 20: KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
August 21: KRDU: 76/2009 KFAY: 77/2005
August 22: KFAY: 75/2018

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT for NCZ088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Danco
AVIATION...Danco/AS