205
FXUS62 KRAH 062357
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Heightened potential for strong to severe winds over our SW and
  southern areas for the next several hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

1) A threat for isolated strong to severe storms continues into
early this evening SW of an INT-to-GSB line, with strong wind gusts
as the primary threat.

2) Near normal temperatures to start the week, then moderating to
above normal again for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A threat for isolated strong to severe storms
continues into early this evening SW of an INT-to-GSB line, with
strong wind gusts as the primary threat.

A diffuse surface boundary persists from W NC across S NC, aligned
with mid level cyclonic NW flow around the deep mid level low
centered just SE of Nova Scotia. Subtle perturbations tracking along
this boundary and feeding on moderate SBCAPE and 70-75F dewpoints
are maintaining a mature cluster of storms now tracking SE over our
S Sandhills and S Coastal Plain. Effective bulk shear around 20-25
kts is much lower than what we saw yesterday, however the still-
moist low levels and daytime heating should support the potential
for a few 30-40 kt gusts and perhaps some small hail. Additional
storm clusters tracking out of the central mountains of NC are
poised to follow roughly this same path through early evening,
however the waning heating and worked-over air mass over our
southwest and south may mean limited storm strength and organization
as they reach our area. Additional isolated showers will also
continue over the N and E through the afternoon, within the less-
unstable air and NE surface flow NE of the frontal zone. Activity
should slowly wane and shift to our SW through early evening,
leaving us within partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight with
passing debris stratocu and mid clouds.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Near normal temperatures to start the week, then
moderating to above normal again for mid to late week.

Aloft, the ~594 dam mid-level anticyclone to the west to start the
week will strengthen and build ewd across the region by mid-week.
The trough associated with a potent nrn stream system tracking
across cntl and ern Canada should amplify swd, then progress ewd
across the region mid to late week. This trough should help push the
anticyclone wwd and out of the area before it builds in over the
weekend once again. At the surface, high pressure will slide sewd
across the mid-Atlantic, shifting offshore by Tue night. The high
may continue to ridge into the area on Wed, however a warm front
should lift nwd across the area Wed night/Thu as the pre-frontal
trough sets up, with sly-swly flow expected Thu-Fri. The cold front
should approach from the north on Fri, however its progression into
the area remains uncertain at this time. While diurnal convection is
possible each day, the highest chances will be Thu/Fri ahead of the
front. High temperatures to start the week should be in the low to
mid 80s, moderating through Thu, when highs in the upper 80s to low
90s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM Sunday...

TAF period: A line of showers has moved to the south of INT/GSO,
meaning that the VCSH mention over the first two hours of the TAFs
is likely overdone. Drier air will move in from the north overnight,
and the chance for restrictions is minimal. However, inherited and
continued the mention of some MVFR fog at FAY, particularly
considering they received over an inch of rain this afternoon in a
thunderstorm, even though guidance is not hinting at much of a
restriction here. The wind will generally be out of the east-
northeast, with some gusts up to 20 kt possible at FAY Monday
afternoon.

Looking beyond 00Z Tue, VFR conditions should prevail across central
NC through much of Thu with generally dry weather. Shower/storm
chances start to ramp back up late Thu, and stay elevated through
Fri, as a cold front approaches from the NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hartfield/10
AVIATION...Green/Hartfield