124
FXUS62 KRAH 190655
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south across central NC tonight and
Tuesday. Surface high pressure centered over Maine will extend into
the region Tuesday, retreat Wednesday as Hurricane Erin moves
northeast, just off and parallel to the Carolina coastline late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 253 AM Tuesday...

Sfc analysis this morning depicted a weak backdoor cold front moving
into the Sandhills/southern Piedmont. With the passage of the front,
expect nnely sfc flow to dominate through the period.  An extensive
shield of stratus has blanketed central NC so far this morning.
Guidance suggests this cloud cover will likely hang on for much of
the morning before dissipating some later this afternoon. Given the
cooler nely flow and expected cloud cover, expect daytime highs to
only reach the lower to mid 80s today.

The sfc front is expected to continue to sag and remain south of
central NC today under weak flow aloft. Largely void of sfc and
upper forcing, precipitation chances should be limited today.
However, CAMs continue to simulate some showers/storms along inland
penetrating sea/sound breezes this afternoon. Some of this activity
may reach our Coastal Plain areas. However, PWAT should be moreso
near-normal today, and as such think the flash flooding threat is
quite limited. Although, storm motion will be slow again today so
can`t fully rule out the potential for isolated flash flooding in
urban areas along the I-95 corridor.

Any lingering convection will dissipate with loss of heating this
evening. Guidance suggest we`ll sock back in tonight with overnight
lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 253 AM Tuesday...

Nnely flow early Wednesday will turn more nnwly as Hurricane Erin
inches closer to Cape Hatteras.  Extensive early morning cloud cover
will slowly lift through late morning allowing temps to climb into
the mid to upper 80s. Latest guidance continues to suggest any
impacts from Hurricane Erin will be confined to the immediate coastal
areas. In fact, forecast soundings even at our farthest southeastern
sites only suggest mixing potential supportive of 15 to 25 mph gusts
at times late Wednesday night/early Thursday. As such, not expecting
any concerning wind-related hazards with this system.

As far as precipitation chances, a few CAMs (mainly the
ARW/HRRR/FV3) are simulating a thin outer band moving across the
Coastal Plain Wednesday afternoon.  Thus, an isolated heavier
downpour could be possible for areas east of I-95, but overall the
deeper moisture/precipitation associated with Erin should remain
well to our east. Any lingering isolated shower should dissipate
with loss of heating. Overnight lows around 70 expected again.

&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

* Turning cooler behind Erin, with highs generally in the 80s
  through early next week

* Rain chances primarily across the western Piedmont through
  Saturday, spreading back over central NC Sunday

* Drying out on Monday

In the wake of Erin, surface high pressure will settle to our north.
This will allow for relatively cool/dry northeasterly flow across
the area through the end of the week, with relatively low precip
chances (20-30 percent) oriented mainly across the western Piedmont
and southern Sandhills. Subsidence on the periphery of the departing
tropical cyclone will likely result very low precip chances (less
than 5-10 percent) across the central Piedmont/northern Coastal
Plain) through Saturday. During this time period, look for afternoon
highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows ranging from
the low 60s in the northeast to the upper 60s/around 70 across the
south.

On Sunday, a weak mid level shortwave trough over GA/SC will migrate
eastward through NC. Anomalously high PW`s around 1.5 to 1.8" should
make their way northward into NC during the daytime hours as the
trough passes through the area, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing area-wide (30-40 PoPs). The trough should move offshore
relatively quickly, with dry weather returning on Monday courtesy of
surface high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley. Temps Sunday
into Monday should once again range from the low to mid 80s, with
overnight lows falling into the lower 60s in the NW Piedmont, and
into the upper 60s across the southern Coastal Plain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

IFR stratus is making its way into the area from the northeast this
morning and should gradually overspread all sites before 08Z. Expect
IFR cigs through at least 13Z, before slowly lifting through MVFR
and eventually VFR before 16Z. Given the extensive cloud cover,
widespread/significant vsby restrictions aren`t expected but it`s
possible we could see a brief drop down to 3-5SM before daybreak.

Sea breeze showers and storms are expected again this afternoon,
although 00Z HREF keeps the majority of the activity to our east and
I will keep all sites dry. If anyone would see a stray afternoon
shower or storm, it would likely be FAY/RWI but confidence is too
low to include in this set of TAFs.

Outlook: Additional IFR stratus expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Erin`s forecast track will keep northerly winds across
the area through at least Thursday, with decreasing precip chances
through late week into the weekend. Shower/storm chances returning
area-wide on Sunday, potentially bringing non-VFR weather back to
the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM..Leins
AVIATION...Leins