873
FXUS62 KRAH 231328
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
828 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the Southeast through mid-week. A
cold front trailing a clipper low will move across the Carolinas
late Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 828 AM Sunday...

Added patchy fog for areas east of I-95 early Monday morning.
Otherwise, the inherited forecast is on track.

Downstream of a potent short wave currently ejecting east through
Louisiana, wnwly flow continues over central NC this morning. Latest
sfc analysis noted high pressure centered off the Carolina coast and
over central TN. Convection associated with the aforementioned short-
wave continues to rage along the immediate gulf coast. Given the
presences of ridging over central NC, this southern-stream system
should be shunted to our south leading to dry conditions over our
area through the period. However, we will see an uptick in cloud
coverage associated with the short-wave feature this afternoon and
especially overnight. Clouds will be thickest across the NC/SC
border. The last several HRRR runs (along with some other guidance)
have hinted at the potential for some patchy fog generally along and
east of I-95 early Monday morning. Confidence isn`t entirely high,
but there is enough of a signal to warrant at least a mention of
possible patchy fog. Best chances are likely up near Rocky Mount.
Daytime highs will reach the lower to mid 50s, while overnight lows
will dip into the upper 20s/lower 30s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Sunday...

High pressure will continue to dominate the region with dry weather
on Monday. An area of low pressure in the Gulf will stay to the
south of our region, but influence some WAA Monday and Monday night.
Light S/SW winds Monday will result in slightly above normal
temperatures with highs in the low 60s across the region. Lows in
the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

In progressive mid/upr-level flow, a couple of ridges will amplify
across wrn NOAM and progress ewd into the Rockies through next
weekend. A downstream synoptic trough will amplify across the OH and
TN Valleys Thu-Thu night and across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
and Carolinas on Fri, with trough timing, tilt, and amplitude
differences more apparent in model guidance this morning versus 24
hours ago.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast until a
cold front trailing a clipper low moves across the Carolinas late
Thu-Thu night. Following Pacific high pressure will build across and
offshore the Southeast Fri-Sat, ahead of a stronger clipper low that
will swing across the Great Lakes during the same time.

The resulting sensible weather for cntl NC will feature unseasonably
mild temperatures except for Fri-Fri night, behind the
aforementioned clipper cold front. Strong, swly flow ahead of that
cold front will probably become gusty to around 30 mph on Thu and be
accompanied by the warmest temperatures of the period, in the
mid/upr 60s over the nrn NC Piedmont to lwr-middle 70s elsewhere. A
good chance of showers, and a slight chance of thunder supported by
pre-frontal surface dewpoints in the lwr-mid 50s F, will result with
the passage of the cold front, favored at this time during the
evening hours Thu. Dry and briefly more-seasonable temperatures will
follow for Fri-Fri night, with quickly moderating temperatures
likely for Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 610 AM Sunday...

High confidence in VFR conditions across central NC during the next
24 hours.Generally SKC skis are through today and much of this
evening. An increase in clouds from the south is expected by Monday
morning. Winds will be light and variable through the period, less
than 5 kts.

Outlook: VFR conditions are generally expected through Wednesday
with periods of mid to high level cloudiness. Sub-VFR conditions may
then return as early as Wednesday night and continue into Thursday as
a strong frontal system approaches the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CA