056
FXUS62 KRAH 201033
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will track east and southeast
through the Mid Atlantic region today through Monday, as a backdoor
cold front approaches from the north. This front will drop south
through North Carolina early Tuesday, allowing a cooler and drier
air mass to build in from north late Tuesday through Thursday

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 AM Sunday...

The main MCV/vort maxima that triggered this past evening`s
convection has shifted east of central NC early this morning.
Residual stratiform rain over the Coastal Plain should diminish
within the next hour or so.

As we pivot into the rest of today, expect flow aloft to turn more
nwly behind the exiting east coast trough. As such, we`ll likely see
a down-tick in convection area-wide this afternoon and evening.
Can`t fully rule out a few isolated storms given SBCAPE will push
3500 to 4000 J/kg over our area. However, latest guidance is hinting
at some subsidence in the mid-levels this afternoon and thus think
coverage should be limited. By early evening, however, an upstream
MCV will move into the central Appalachians. This feature may
generate a few showers/storms in our far western areas. Overall
think the severe threat is lower today given little upper forcing.
However, can`t rule out an isolated stronger downburst and/or
isolated flash flooding in urban areas.

Otherwise, expect hot and humid conditions to persist with much of
our area under a Heat Advisory through 8 pm tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 AM Sunday...

A string of mid-level perturbations will cross the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday while a sfc backdoor cold front oozes down from the mouth of
the Chesapeake.  Convergence and upper forcing from these features
will trigger scattered to numerous storms across central NC Monday
afternoon and evening. The 00Z HREF indicates the potential for
unseasonably stronger bulk layer shear (20 to 30 kts) across
northern parts of our area. Similarly, the 00Z HREF indicated a
clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in the Coastal Plain. Thus,
there appears to be a kinematic signal for some storm organization
potential especially across northern areas Monday afternoon/evening.
It`s also worth noting that the ML/AI severe weather outlook
guidance (Pangu, FengWu, CSU MLP; which have performed quite well
the past few days) continue to highlight "slight risk" level
probabilities over central NC Monday.  The primary threat from any
stronger storm Monday would be damaging wind gusts. Additionally,
flash flooding would be possible with any stronger downpour,
especially over the classic urban areas.

Temperatures might be a few degrees "cooler" on Monday, but should
still reach the lower to mid 90s across the south. These areas may
reach Heat Advisory criteria.

Convection will largely diminish by sunrise Tuesday morning as the
backdoor cold front pushes towards the NC/SC border.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

* Drier weather will dominate central NC, especially in the N, for
  much of this time frame.

* Near to below normal temps through mid week will trend back up
  above normal by Fri/Sat.

The drying trend begins over our NE areas Tue, although convection
chances will remain elevated in the far S, near the backdoor surface
front as it settles southward through the Carolinas. Strong mid
level ridging will extend over the mid and lower Miss Valley Tue,
while faster NW flow holds from MI through VA/NC. But lower PWs will
spread into central NC from the NE as cool/dry high pressure sliding
eastward from MI through the St Lawrence Valley noses southward
through our area, which could limit rain chances. Have held onto 45-
55% pops across our SW with just isolated pops in the NE, but if the
drier air works in quite aggressively as some deterministic models
indicate, these pops may be too high. Temps Tue will be a bit below
normal, mostly in the 80s, with pleasant humidity as afternoon
dewpoints dip in the 60s.

Mostly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, with just
daily small chances of late-day convection in the far NW and far S.
The surface high to our N will continue to drift E over the southern
Canadian Maritimes Wed as it noses SW into NC, while aloft, the
ridge to our W will expand E across the Mid Atlantic region. This
will leave us largely cut off from any good source of deep moisture,
with subsidence and low lapse rates aloft, although as inverted
troughing develops by Wed just off the Southeast coast, we may see
greater inland penetration of the sea breeze and associated
convection into our SE sections by late week. Once the high pushes
further out over the NW Atlantic by Fri and modifies, the heat
should return as the deep mid level anticyclone settles overhead,
although early indications are that dewpoints won`t be quite as
stifling as they have been over the last few days. With a steady
increase in moisture flux from the Atlantic and Gulf, pops should
trend back toward climatology, although if this low level ridge
builds back W over the Southeast as some models suggest, the Gulf
would be mostly cut off, and the relatively dry weather would
continue into next weekend. Will keep pops at or below climatology
through Sat. After highs in the 80s Wed and upper 80s/around 90 Thu,
expect highs back into the 90s areawide for Fri/Sat. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

Very isolated pockets of IFR/LIFR conditions are noted over central
NC, including at RDU which has seen 300-ft AGL clouds vary from sct
to bkn in the last couple of hours. These sporadic adverse aviation
conditions will continue near RDU until the 12z-13z time frame.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to hold today, although
certainly a few clouds based below 1kft AGL may pass near the other
terminals prior to 13z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
today with multi-level convective debris clouds, mostly mid and high
level, passing over the region. After passage of a weak disturbance
this morning, we should see a period of weak large scale subsidence
resulting in a relative lull in shower/storm coverage today as
compared to the last couple of days, so will largely keep convection
out of the TAFs for now, but this will be monitored closely. The
risk for sub-VFR fog/stratus toward the end of the TAF period looks
small, and isolated fog patches are possible early Mon morning, but
overall VFR conditions will dominate. Surface winds will be
light/variable through mid morning, then from the W or NW for much
of the day 8-12 kts before dropping back to under 8 kts after sunset.

Looking beyond 12z Mon, scattered to numerous showers and storms are
possible Mon in the mid afternoon through evening, likely affecting
all 5 central NC TAF sites for at least a few hours. For Tue through
Thu, as drier air spreads in from the north and a ridge builds
aloft, VFR conditions should prevail, with low chances for early-
morning fog/stratus or late-day storms. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for Ncz028>011-024>028-
040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Hartfield