622
FXUS62 KRAH 080541
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
140 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of cold fronts moving across North Carolina today and tonight
will bring a brief chance of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
fronts, Canadian high pressure will yield an extended period of
below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

A surface low pressure center is over New England, with a cold front
extending southwest along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.
Models have been trending drier with precipitation over the last 24
hours, and the chance of showers has dropped below 50% for all
locations west of I-95. Most of the rainfall should make its way
through the region by noon, with scattered showers lingering to the
southeast of US-1 in the afternoon. Although thunderstorms are
possible, the chance for any severe weather is minimal. There are
suggestions that the wind may not be too gusty during the day, but
might actually pick up behind a secondary cold front - the first
front will shift the wind to the northwest, while the
evening/overnight front further shifts the wind direction to the
north. One last day of warmth is expected with highs in the 80s, but
lows will tumble into the upper 40s and 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

By Thursday morning, high pressure will be centered over the Great
Lakes and the surface front will have sagged south into Georgia.
Although skies will be mostly sunny, the wind will be out of the
northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. In combination with
highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid 70s, it will feel much
more like fall than it has the last several days. Thursday night
will likely be the coldest night out of the next seven, with lows
ranging from the low 40s to the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

* Generally below normal highs expected into early next week.

* Next chance of precipitation, mainly in the east, will be Saturday
  and Sunday with a coastal low.

Aloft, as a s/w sits over the Southeast US, another more potent s/w
should track sewd across the Great Lakes Fri/Fri night, while the
sub-tropical ridge builds over the Plains. As the nrn s/w continues
sewd into the OH Valley Sat/Sat night, the srn s/w should begin to
lift nwd from the Southeast to the Carolinas. The two lows may then
merge as they move into the mid-Atlantic Sun/Sun night, becoming one
closed low along the mid-Atlantic coast on Mon. Meanwhile, the ridge
will shift slowly eastward, to over the MS Valley by Mon. There is
still some uncertainty wrt the location, strength, and progression
of the low from Mon onward. At the surface, as the ~1034 mb high
over the Northeast US should weaken slightly as it progresses ewd
and offshore Fri/Fri night, continuing to ridge swd into the area.
The ridge should gradually shift wwd to over the Appalachians
Sat/Sat night as a coastal low lifts nwd off the Southeast US coast.
There are still some differences in the strength and track of the
low, which will impact when and how far west the ridge will shift.
For now, it appears the low will be invof the Outer Banks on Sun,
with central NC on the west side where nly flow will prevail over
much of the area. The low should lift nwd and deepen off the mid-
Atlantic coast Sun night, however the progression thereafter varies
between the available model guidance.

Precipitation: The next chance for some rain will be over the
weekend, highest east, but will depend on the track and strength of
the coastal low.

Temperatures: Below normal highs expected through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 AM Wednesday...

TAF period: The overall trend with the 06Z TAF package is decreased
chances of both showers and associated restrictions. With a cold
front located along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains at 05Z,
there is a relative lack of shower coverage across the Carolinas
versus greater coverage of showers to the north across Virginia.
Have continued a tempo or prob group at each terminal where heavier
showers could bring MVFR restrictions, but confidence is diminishing
in restrictions developing. However, it does appear that outside of
precipitation, there should still be an area of low stratus that
develops for a few hours before sunrise around FAY. Once the front
moves through each site, the wind will veer to the northwest, but
models are also trending down with the gustiness this afternoon. The
greater wind gusts may actually come with a secondary cold front
after sunset, but have only gone with northerly winds around 10-12
kt at this time - gusts may need to be added with later forecast
packages. If not gusts, there may be a situation where marginal low-
level wind shear occurs instead.

Outlook: Each afternoon appears likely to have a period where the
wind gusts out of the northeast around 15-20 kt. This will be
related to a coastal low that will move north along the Atlantic
seaboard, and could bring showers/flight restrictions to FAY/RWI
over the weekend. INT/GSO/RDU may experience gusts, but low
clouds/rain should remain to the east of these terminals.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Green