015
FXUS62 KRAH 220502
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
102 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop slowly south across Virginia and into North
Carolina this evening before stalling along the Carolina coast on
Tuesday morning and persisting through mid week. Drier and cooler
air will spread into the region behind the front on Tuesday and
Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build across the Southeast over
the weekend into early next week resulting in a return to hot and
humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

* Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this
  afternoon and persist well into the evening hours. A few storms
  will be capable of strong to potentially severe wind gusts and
  torrential rainfall.

The air mass across central NC remains hot and humid with dew
points in the mid 70s across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills and
the lower 70s elsewhere. The airmass is moderately unstable
with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/Kg but the mid levels are mild
and mid level lapse rates are rather flat. Lower and mid
tropospheric winds are a little stronger than previous days with
0-6km shear values ranging around 20 kts which could support
some modest storm organization and clusters.

Satellite and radar data is already showing showers and a few storms
getting going across the central NC, roughly near U.S. route 1 in an
area of weak surface convergence. Much more widespread
convection has launched along with coast, Of most concern for
us will be the convection developing in northwestern NC and
southwestern VA, this convection will likely grow in coverage
and intensity and spread southeast across central NC later this
afternoon and evening. This cluster of storms is being supported
by MCV from prior convection and with other disturbances
upstream and heading our way, its expected that there may be
multiple clusters or even rounds of storms well into the
overnight hours. While our area is not highlighted in a marginal
risk, a few storms will be capable of producing some damaging
downburst winds. With storms expected to be more progressive
than previous days, the threat of flash flooding will center on
locations that experience multiple rounds of storms. Convection
will persist well into the overnight with a risk of showers
lingering well past midnight. Overnight lows will range in the
lower to mid 70s. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

* Cooler and less humid with considerable cloudiness to start the
  day with highs mainly in the mid and upper 80s.
* Convection will be largely confined to the southern and
  southwestern areas.
* Lows on Tuesday night will range in the mid 60s to around 70!

An impressive cold front for late July will push south across NC and
into SC to start the day on Tuesday. Behind the front a 1023 mb
surface high centered over Quebec and New England will extend into
the region with a cooler and drier air mass. Surface dew points will
drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday with high
temperatures only reaching the mid to upper 80s. These highs are 1 to
4 degrees below average but when combined with the lower levels of
humidity and a light northeast breeze, it will make it feel
noticeably more comfortable. With the frontal zone lurking to our
south and low level moisture lingering near and behind the front,
there is a chance of a few afternoon and evening showers or storms
across southern and southwester areas, mainly near and south of an
arc from Goldsboro, west to lillington, to Southern Pines to
Lexington. Any convection should quickly end on Tuesday evening.

The air mass will continue to cool on Tuesday night with low level
thickness values ranging between 1395 and 1405, or about 15 to 25m
cooler than this morning. Lows on Wednesday morning will range in
the mid 60s to around 70. As noted by the previous shift, this
forecast include overnight lows that may dip below 70 degrees in the
Triad and Triangle which would be the first time since July 6th in
the Triad and since June 21st in the Triangle. The RDU site is
currently at 29 consecutive days, likely 30 days after Mon night,
with a minimum temp of greater-or-equal to 70 degrees which is the
4th longest stretch in the period or record. If this snap is not
broken, RDU may set the all-time record (currently 34 days set in
June of 1906) as the heat quickly returns by mid-week. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM Monday...

*Cooler temperatures Wednesday with highs in the 80s to low 90s
along with little rain chances.

*Heat and humidity returns Friday into the weekend with heat indices
in the low 100s along and east of US-1 corridor.

Upper level ridge will continue to build across the Mid-Atlantic
region through the week before it weakens over the weekend. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will linger to the south of the region
as high pressure centered over the Northeast builds in with slightly
cooler dryer air Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances will
be very limited to the far southern portions of the CWA Wednesday
afternoon as the dry air takes over the area. Thursday, the frontal
boundary lingering to the south and along the coast will try to
shift inland, thus have increased PoPs for the southern half of the
CWA Thursday afternoon and evening. Confidence on how far
north/inland the front will shift is low as the top of the ridge
will be over the area with a good amount of dry air aloft still in
place. If any precip does develop,  expect it to be isolated and
short lived. By Friday, increased chances for precip in the
afternoon and evenings through the weekend are expected as a
Piedmont trough sets up across the region.  Temperatures will warm
up over the weekend with highs Fri-Sun in the mid to upper 90s and
heat indices in the low 100s along and east of the US1 corridor. Low
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows on Saturday and
Sunday night could tie the daily record high min temperature, see
climate section for more details.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Tuesday...

A cold front dropping south through the area may support an isolated
shower or storm overnight. In it`s wake, widespread MVFR ceilings
with pockets of IFR ceilings are expected to develop, especially at
KINT and KGSO, where the greatest potential for IFR exists.

These sub-VFR ceilings will be slow to lift, with gradual
improvement expected through late morning into the early afternoon.
KINT and KGSO likely to be the last terminals to return to VFR.

This afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers may re-develop
across southern portions of the forecast area. However, coverage is
expected to remain too limited to warrant a mention in the KFAY TAF.

Outlook: Areas of stratus or fog are possible again Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected
Wednesday, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
returning Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 21:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/1932
KFAY: 80/2017

July 25:
KGSO: 78/2010
KRDU: 80/2010
KFAY: 78/2016

July 26:
KGSO: 76/2016
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 80/2005

July 27:
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH