581
FXUS62 KRAH 291935
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle
Atlantic this afternoon, then continue to extend southwestward into
VA and NC tonight and Sunday. A cold front will move across the
region Sunday night, followed by another area of cold high pressure
that will build briefly overhead Monday and offshore Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A strong 1035 mb sfc high centered over southeast VA will slide
offshore through tonight promoting light esely return flow. Dew
points will be slow to recover, as such expect dry and chilly
conditions to persist through this evening.

Aloft, a short-wave currently over Missouri/Kansas will eject east
across the Ohio Valley through Sunday afternoon.  Mid-level height
falls/upper forcing with this feature will maximize well north of
our area. Moisture initially with this system should be rather
limited (in the overnight through sunrise period). However, can`t
rule out some very light isentropic-driven rain over the
southern/western Piedmont near 12Z Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings across this area continue to depict a strong warm nose
aloft, with generally near to above freezing sfc temperatures during
the potential period of early morning precipitation. Median HREF
wetbulb temperatures are in the upper 20s in this vicinity, but
don`t think there will be enough moisture to 1) evaporatively cool
to those values and 2) overcome low-level dry layers to reach the
sfc. Overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A strong sfc low will eject through the Ohio Valley on Sunday
sending a cold front across central NC later Sunday night. Ahead of
the front, a plume of deeper Gulf moisture will advect into the Deep
South/southeast. While the deepest moisture will remain over the
Gulf states, and the strongest upper forcing will remain to our
north, enough forcing will be present to induce a thin line of light
rain across our area Sunday afternoon and evening.  However, QPF
amounts will be negligible, primarily trace to a few hundreds
(highest amounts across the NC/VA border). Any rain should exit east
of the area by ~06Z Monday.  CAD will likely develop which should
create a rather steep temperature gradient with generally mid to
upper 40s highs across the northwest/northern Piedmont to near mid
60s in the southern Coastal Plain.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s (NW) to around 40 (SE).
Depending on the pace of the Sunday night cold front, there could be
a brief period of dense across the Piedmont as drier air filters in
aloft ahead of the front. Otherwise, the front should sweep low-
level moisture out of our area by 12Z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM Saturday...

* Unseasonably chilly/cold week ahead

* Short period of freezing rain possible over the nw Piedmont at
  onset Tue morning, followed by a widespread, soaking rain Tue

Forecast reasoning from Friday remain unchanged and described below.

Monday will feature a brief lull in precipitation chances as a ~1030
mb surface high builds down from Upstate NY and New England.
Temperatures will only reach the mid-40s to lower-50s (8-12 degrees
below normal) and dew points will be in the 20s. However, this
surface high will quickly move east to the Canadian Maritimes on
Monday night as a potent shortwave tracking from the Southern Plains
to the Middle MS Valley spawns a surface low over the Gulf Coast.
This low will track NE through the Carolinas on Tuesday and looks to
provide a welcome soaking (but cold) rain to our region from Monday
night into Tuesday. While the system will be fast moving, it will
have plenty of moisture and dynamics, and forecast rainfall totals
are in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, amounts depicted on both the GFS and
ECMWF. Isolated urban and poor drainage flooding can`t be ruled out,
and WPC has much of central NC in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Still, given how dry it has been
lately, widespread flooding is not expected.

Also watching potential for a brief period of freezing rain again at
the onset of precipitation over the NW Piedmont on Monday night and
early Tuesday morning, as a very small number of GFS and ECMWF
ensemble members (around 10% or less) depict it. Once again a deep
warm layer aloft should preclude any chance of sleet or snow, and
even any freezing rain would be very fleeting as there will be no
high to our north and the low will be taking an unfavorable inland
track over eastern NC if the latest GFS and ECMWF verify. Monday
night`s low temperatures in the 30s will be slow to warm on Tuesday
with highs ranging from lower-40s in the far NW (maybe even some
upper-30s) to lower-50s in the far SE. Rain chances will end and
skies will clear from west to east on Tuesday evening/night behind
the departing low as lows drop into the upper-20s to mid-30s.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. The next wave brings increasing
clouds and a chance of precipitation as early as Friday, but at this
time it looks more likely on Friday night and Saturday. Below-normal
temperatures will continue, as highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-
50s from Wednesday through Friday, and lows Wednesday and Thursday
nights will be in the upper-20s to mid-30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1201 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through early Sunday
morning. Weak warm advection/isentropic ascent will result in the
development of MVFR stratus across the western Piedmont around
daybreak Sunday along with a period of LLWS. There is also a chance
for some very light rain to develop after 12Z but confidence is too
low to introduce in the TAFs and any precip that develops should be
spotty in nature. In addition, any precip that develops should not
occur until after temperatures warm above freezing.

Outlook: A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night, bringing a chance of showers and
associated sub-VFR restrictions. Marginal LLWS may also be possible
ahead of the cold frontal passage Sunday morning into the afternoon.
The cold front will stall south of the area Monday with dry VFR
conditions giving way to widespread rain/showers and sub-VFR
restrictions late Monday night and Tuesday as a series of weak sfc
lows/waves track through the SE US and up the Carolina Coast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...MWS/Danco
AVIATION...Leins