420
FXUS62 KRAH 020552
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
152 AM EDT Sun Nov 02 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today as a vigorous mid and upper
level low approaches from the west. A coastal low pressure will
develop just offshore as the mid and upper low pivots across and
offshore the Carolinas tonight and early Monday. High pressure will
follow and build across the Southeast early to mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 152 AM Sunday...

* Frost Advisory in effect from through 8 AM EST Today

* Light rain develops this evening and continues overnight, mainly
  over the eastern Piedmont east to the coast.

* Rainfall amounts of a tenth of an inch or less in far west to a
  quarter to one half inch in the central/east. Isolated higher
  totals possible over portions of the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and
  Coastal Plain

A vigorous mid/upper level trough over the TN valley is forecast in
much of the guidance to reach GA/SC by Monday morning. High pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast will further shift off into the north
Atlantic during the afternoon and evening as surface low pressure
develops off the NC coast tonight into early Monday. Satellite and
radar data indicate rain associated with the mid/upper low over the
TN Valley. There was extensive cloudiness across the southern
Appalachians into the Piedmont. It will be later today before the
rain develops. Until then, expect increasing cloudiness through
daybreak. Then, partly sunny to mostly cloudy this morning.

A thickening overcast is expected this afternoon and especially
tonight as deep lift east of the trough shifts eastward. This lift
should maximize between the mid-evening through overnight hours and
into early Mon morning. Highs should top out in the lower 60s west
to upper 60s SE.

While the surface low develops offshore, the 850-700 mb circulation
is expected to track into GA/SC. This will favor increasing warm
advection and associated isentropic ascent above the coastal frontal
zone, developing mainly after sunset in the evening. Most
guidance/CAMs suggest that as this warm advection increases in
conjunction with vorticity advection, precipitation should blossom
from south to north on the north and northwest side of the low-level
circulation. Precipitable water values increase to 1-1.25 inches,
which is about the 75th-90th percentile for this time of year.

While CAMs do vary with respect to the precipitation pattern, there
is decent model/ensemble consensus on rainfall amounts by early
Monday. That is, we could see a tenth of an inch or less of rain
over the Triad and NW Piedmont. Some of the recent guidance,
notably the HRRR, suggest potentially even lighter amounts in the
NW. Further east near the Triangle and along/east of US-1, a broad
swath of a quarter to one half inch of rain is expected. Depending
on which HREF/LREF members you favor, some locally higher rain
totals of three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, could be
possible over the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. These
higher amounts appear to be driven by some weak 150 J/kg or less of
elevated instability. Rain and moisture should keep lows milder in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

* Additional rain amounts a tenth of an inch or less in the SE under
  mainly overcast skies early Monday, then clearing skies.

The upper-level system from today is forecast to be located over
eastern GA and portions of SC come Monday morning. Most
model/ensemble guidance takes the shortwave trough east off the
GA/SC coast by the late afternoon to early evening hours, eventually
moving into the southwest Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday as
quasi-zonal flow builds in from the TN valley. At the surface, low
pressure along the Outer Banks will gradually track ENE into the
Atlantic by the aftn/eve.

Most of the light rain will taper off by mid-morning. Though, some
model guidance suggests some pockets of light rain or drizzle may
linger, especially along/east of the US-1 corridor as low-level
isentropic ascent persists around the 850-mb low. A tenth of an inch
or less of additional rain is possible before tapering off by late
morning. Clouds, on the other hand, will be slower to erode east,
with clearing west in the late morning and early afternoon.

Highs will range from the upper 50s to some low/mid 60s, coolest in
the Piedmont where clouds linger. Mainly clear skies are expected
Monday night as high pressure builds in from the TN valley. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 AM Sunday...

* Largely quiet weather through the work week.

Aloft, the mid-level anti-cyclone will flatten out over the Gulf by
Wed, with weak longwave ridging across the CONUS and quasi-zonal
flow over the region. A s/w trough will track across the Great Lakes
on Wed, then continue across the Northeast/nrn mid-Atlantic Wed
night. A weak, transient ridge will move across the region Thu
night. Another s/w may clip/move across the region Fri night/Sat,
although details vary between the available model solutions. At the
surface, high pressure will progress eastward from the srn/cntl
Appalachians to over the Southeast/mid-Atlantic Tue/Tue night. A low
will track ewd across the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed/Wed night,
while the trailing cold front moves into the area from the north or
northeast. High pressure should track esewd across the OH Valley and
into the mid-Atlantic/Northeast in the wake of the front Wed night
and Thu. The strength and progression of the high varies between the
GFS (weaker/more progressive) and EC (stronger and slower to move
out). The model differences continue to grow with time through the
end of the forecast period, with another front approaching from the
west sometime between Friday and Sunday. The weather should remain
largely dry through the end of the week, with increasing chances for
rain as the cold front moves into the region sometime over the
weekend. Temperatures should generally be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions to start the TAF period.
Light winds will become ENE Sunday between 5 and 10 kt. Ceilings
will gradually lower this afternoon and evening tied to a trough and
surface low pressure that will develop off the NC coast. Pockets of
light rain may develop as early as 20-22z today, though any sub-VFR
conditions are likely to hold off until after 00z/Monday. MVFR to
IFR cigs are likely between 04-12z Mon when steadier rain moves
northward.

Outlook: LIFR/IFR conditions and rain --lowest and most prolonged at
RDU, FAY, and RWI-- will result with the passage of a vigorous
mid/upr-level low and the related development of a surface coastal
low along the NC coast late today and tonight. Some patchy fog is
possible early Mon evening before clearing out to VFR Mon night/Tue,
most favored at FAY/RWI. VFR prevails through the remainder of the
TAF period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/AK
SHORT TERM...RAH/AK
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...RAH/AK