942
FXUS62 KRAH 081955
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous mid and upper-level disturbance will move across VA and
NC through this evening, then offshore. Arctic high pressure will
follow and build across the region through Tuesday. The high will
settle across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low pressure
system that swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low
will move across NC Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday. . .

*A Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 12pm Tuesday for
portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of
central NC.

*Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible, highest along the
immediate NC/VA border, with lesser amounts south. Isolated areas
near the VA/NC border could receive up to 2 inches of snow.

*Any leftover moisture on surfaces are expected to freeze Monday
night resulting in areas of black ice Tuesday morning, thus the
extension for the Winter Weather Advisory through noon on Tuesday.

We are currently seeing a rain/snow mix line extending from just
south of Roanoke Rapids down towards Asheboro. Drying has already
begun across the western Piedmont with lingering snow showers across
the Northwest Piedmont. Expect these snow showers to taper off this
afternoon, over the next few hours. For the Triangle region many
surface reports have been mainly rain-snow around the Durham area
with a slow change over expected across the Raleigh/Wake County area
in the next hour or so. Since there is drying aloft and the dry air
within the column is making its way to the surface quickly, I would
not expect a long lived all snow event for the Triangle area but
as mentioned in previous discussions a quick burst of light snow
before the end of the event. If any snow does fall, accumulations
shouldn`t be an issue for the Triangle region as temperatures are
still just above freezing and wet snow flakes are expected to melt
on contact with the warmer surfaces. However motorists should use
extra caution with wet slippery roads this afternoon/evening. To the
north of the Triangle, near the VA border we continue to see snow
coming down with reports from Roxboro and Henderson of light snow
falling across the region with accumulations only occurring on
grassy and elevated surfaces. This band is expected to move across
the northern Piedmont and into the Northern Coastal Plain over the
next few hours, continuing as all snow. Latest model data shows a
slight increase in amounts across the Northern Coastal Plain and
areas along the VA border with this band as rates are expected to
slightly increase the last few hours as it exits the area. All the
precip is expected to exit the western portion of CWA over the next
hour or so, and continue to clear the region through late evening.
Temperatures are expected to crash as the cool dry air moves into
the region with overnight lows in the mid to upper teens across the
north to low/mid 20s US-64 south. As the shortwave exits the area
later this evening, winds are expected to pick up as precip moves
out with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will calm down before sunrise as
high pressure settles overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Monday. . .

* Areas of black ice possible Tuesday morning

Arctic high pressure over the region will make for a cold start to
our Tue. Lingering wet/snowy roads from the Mon system will likely
mean areas of patchy black ice will be possible into the mid/late
morning hours. Mostly sunny skies should prevail for much of the day
under light winds. Highs will be well below normal in the upper 30s
over the far north, to lower 40s elsewhere.

High pressure will shift east Tue night and winds may shift slightly
from the southwest, but remain light. Lows will be cold again in the
middle 20s to around 30 degrees.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

* Gusty winds Wed with winds up to 30 mph possible

* Precipitation chances somewhat limited with a few moisture starved
  frontal systems.

* Well below normal temperatures favored for the late weekend

High pressure will shift offshore Wed. A fast-moving low pressure
system tracking across the Lower Great Lakes will create a tightened
pressure gradient across the region. Southwest winds could gust up
to 30 mph or so at times during the afternoon hours as guidance
depicts a strong low-level jet upwards of 50-kts. The pressure
gradient relaxes Wed night as a moisture starved cold front advances
through by early Thu. Precipitation chances appear very limited with
this front. Temperatures should moderate closer to average with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Cool high pressure settles over the region Thu, with highs below
normal generally in the mid 40s to near 50.

Our next system looks to arrive sometime Fri/Fri night when a warm
front lifts north across the Carolinas. This will be ahead of
another potentially strong Arctic cold front that tracks through
sometime Sat-Sun, ushering in much below normal temperatures with
highs possibly in the upper 30s to low 40s and lows in the teens to
low 20s. For the warm front Fri, ensemble guidance is largely dry,
with moisture and lift somewhat lacking. However, if it were to
trend wetter, we could not rule out a rain/snow mix. Confidence in
that scenario, however, is not high at the moment. The Arctic front
Sat into Sun appears right now as a dry passage, with impacts mainly
centered around very cold temperatures as wind chills could be in
the lower teens Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Monday...

A precipitation shield now blossoming across cntl and ern NC will
include ongoing snow at INT/GSO and a transition to snow at RDU and
RWI in the next couple of hours. While the predominant precipitation
type at FAY will be a cold rain, a mix with snow will be possible
for a few hours around and shortly after sunset. Otherwise, a mix of
IFR-MVFR restrictions in both ceilings and visibility restrictions
will lower a category on average through late this afternoon-early
this evening, lowest and longest at RWI, then gradually lift through
MVFR overnight and scatter to VFR Tue morning. Nely surface winds
will also be at least occasionally gusty, as the MSL pressure
gradient tightens between deepening low pressure off the coast of
the Carolinas and Arctic high pressure that will build south across
the region tonight.

Outlook: VFR. Low-level wind shear will be possible, especially over
the Piedmont, Wed morning, followed by the development of a strong
and gusty swly surface wind with daytime heating/mixing through Wed
afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...MWS