470
FXUS62 KRAH 041815
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will hold over the Southeast coast and eastern
Carolinas this morning. A dry cold front will push southward through
the region later today, settling just to our south as Arctic high
pressure noses in from the north. Low pressure developing over the
northern Gulf will track northeastward across the Southeast states
and Carolinas late tonight through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A weak surface trough will linger across the area today before being
pushed south and out of the area by a dry cold front. Arctic high
moving into the OH Valley begins to build into the area this
evening. A mid-level srn stream wave will track ewd across nrn FL/GA
and off the Southeast US coast this eve. Cloud cover will increase
this aft and eve as the wave passes to the south, but the weather
should largely remain dry through the afternoon. Highs will be near
to slightly below normal, generally in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight through
  midnight Saturday for portions of the northern Piedmont and
  northern Coastal Plain of central NC. Up to an inch of snow
  accumulation and a glaze of ice accumulation are expected.

* Snow, and sleet (likely mixed with rain) are possible south of the
  advisory area between midnight and 10 AM Friday, however the
  duration of non-liquid precipitation will be shorter and
  accumulations will be below advisory criteria before the
  transition to all rain occurs.

* A brief period of freezing drizzle could occur (mainly over the
  advisory area) as the precipitation moves out Friday
  evening/night, but confidence in that occurrence is lower.

Overview: Aloft, a mid-level srn stream wave will track ewd across
nrn FL/GA and off the Southeast US coast this eve, while a nrn
stream s/w follows on its heels, tracking ewd across the srn
Appalachians and Carolinas tonight/Fri and off the Carolina coast
Fri night. The H25 170 kt jet should stay north of the area,
oriented generally from W-E extending from the mid MS Valley to the
DELMARVA and east. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will move
ewd from the OH Valley to the Northeast US, ridging swd into the
area through Thu night. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the
nrn Gulf will begin tracking enewd into the Southeast US tonight.
The ridge will likely hold over portions of central NC as the high
shifts off the New England coast and the deepening low tracks newd
across the Southeast US and along the Carolina coast on Fri. The low
should continue ewd out over the Atlantic Fri night, with high
pressure remaining over the area.

Temperatures: lows tonight in the upper 20s north to mid/upper 30s
south expected. Fri highs will be well below normal, only reaching
the low/mid 30s north to low/mid 40s south and with a bit of a
breezy it may only feel like upper 20s to mid 30s across much of the
area.

Precipitation: Isentropic lift will increase this eve/tonight,
quickly saturating the mid levels, including the dendritic growth
zone, by midnight. As precipitation begins, initially rain in most
places, the lower levels will also saturate. Precipitation will
continue into the morning, then could begin moving out of the area
from W-E Fri afternoon or evening, end timing is still a bit
uncertain.

Across the northern half of central NC (roughly along and north of
HWY 64): the temperatures should wetbulb to near/below 0C tonight.
The thermal profile, with temperatures through the column at or
below 0C, should support a period of snow in the advisory area,
perhaps mixing with rain south of the advisory area, into Fri
morning. However, there is still some uncertainty wrt p-types from
early Fri morn into Fri aft. The biggest p-type question will be if,
when, and for how long some sleet or freezing rain may mix in,
depending on the strength/depth of the warm nose aloft, and/or if
there will be a transition to fzdz as dry air intrudes near/below
the dendritic growth zone. The accumulations of snow and ice will
hinge on these transitions and durations. For now expect a glaze of
ice accumulation and up to an inch of snow in the advisory area. If
the saturated layer below the dry air intrusion is deep enough and
surface temps remain below freezing, a transition to fzdz is
possible, which could result in some light ice accrual as the
precipitation ends.

Across the srn half/third of central NC: largely expect precip to be
rain, although cannot rule out a brief period of snow mixing in
farther north.

Friday night: The precipitation should be out, or be moving out of
the area Friday night, though some rain may linger across the
southeast into/through the night. Lows should range from mid/upr 20s
to low/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

* Forecast trending drier and warmer with Sun night into Mon system.

* Bitter cold temperatures Tues morning.

A strong and elongated upper-level jet will be in place Sat morning
stretching from the southern Plains and across the Mid-Atlantic.
This jet will shift eastward throughout the day as the PV trough
drifts across the Mid-Atlantic and shunts the mid/upper level
moisture into the western Atlantic arcing back into the northern
Gulf. This process should shift the axis of more steady rain from
the eastern Piedmont and Carolina coast and out of the area through
the late evening and overnight period.

At the surface, the Carolinas will be between two fronts, one draped
across the northern Gulf states to northern FL, and a wavy Arctic
front in the Northeast and Great Lakes region. A pair of shortwaves
pivoting across the Great Lakes and the Mid-Mississippi Valley early
Sun afternoon is expected to interact with these fronts and result
in weak areas of low pressure rippling along them Sun afternoon into
early Mon morning. Although these features will work in tandem to
bring precipitation chances Sun night into Mon morning, central NC
may be split between these two systems and keep precipitation
chances and amounts relatively low. The mid-levels should still be
cold enough for ice-crystal formation, however, lack of saturation
above -8C and warming low-levels will keep all precipitation liquid
through Sun night into Mon ahead of the Arctic frontal passage Mon.

Forecast turns quieter and colder early next week as cold high
pressure on the backside of the Sun night/Mon system filters into
the area and PWAT values drop to well below normal. Tues morning
could be bitterly cold with the surface high centered directly over
the area. Lows in the low/mid 20s to upper teens Tues morning
certainly appear possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 00z tonight with
aviation conditions deteriorating around midnight. A backdoor front
is expected to provide a wind shift and briefly gusty NE winds
around 12 to 15 kts. Lowering cloud bases towards low-VFR will
accompany the initial surge of precipitation, all liquid likely at
onset. A more substantial surge in moisture is expected after 06z
when precipitation will likely turn to a wintry mix with a period of
light to moderate snow and ice pellets possible at the northern TAF
sites (GSO, INT, RDU, RWI), best chances at GSO and INT. At FAY, all
liquid rain is expected with a period of moderate rainfall possible.
P-types will transition to all liquid and/or cease all together as
dry air aloft moves in from NW to SE. Low cigs of IFR to LIFR are
expected to persist as precip moves out and perhaps even lower to
around 300 ft with IFR/LIFR vsby from drizzle and mist towards the
end of the TAF period.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR cigs and fog may persist well through Fri night
into Sat with some improvement possible during the day on Sat.
Dependent on the degree of clearing, a redevelopment of sub-VFR fog
and stratus will be possible Sat night and linger well into Sun
ahead of our next weather system Sun into early Mon. A strong Arctic
front will scour out the lingering in-situ CAD regime and may bring
gusty NW winds Mon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday
night for NCZ007>011-021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AS