437
FXUS62 KRAH 050548
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue to shift to the
east as a cold front approaches North Carolina mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

High pressure is currently centered offshore over the Atlantic with
ridging back across the southeastern United States, shifting
slightly to the east over the next 24 hours. With upper heights
showing a minimal increase, this will allow high temperatures to
rise 2-3 degrees compared to Saturday, ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s. Overnight lows will also be a few degrees higher,
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

The surface high will exit to the east as a cold front over the
Plains on Monday moves into the Ohio River Valley. There will be
less moisture around 850 mb, resulting in less diurnal cumulus and
therefore more sunshine. This should allow highs to increase another
degree or two. Similarly, lows will also increase by one or two
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

* Best chances for rain will be mid-week (Wed/Wed night), otherwise
  dry weather expected.

* A significant drop in temperatures expected behind the cold front
  mid-week.

Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will be suppressed southward across
the Deep South and Southeast US as a trough progresses ewd across
the OH Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US Tue-Wed. The sub-
tropical ridge should build nwd over the Plains Thu-Fri as a nrn
stream s/w tracks ewd from the mid-MS Valley to the mid-Atlantic. At
the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge wwd into the
region ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW Tue/Tue night,
with continued ely-sely return flow off the Atlantic into the area.
The ridge will be pushed ewd and offshore as the cold front moves
into and through the area Wed/Wed night. As the ~1032 mb high
progresses ewd across srn Ontario/Quebec and into the Northeast US,
it will ridge swd across the area Thu and remain in place through
Sat, even as the center of the high moves out over the nrn Atlantic.

The best chance for any showers/possible storms will be along and
ahead of the cold front on Wed, though forecast rainfall totals
remain modest for now.

As for temperatures, above to well above normal ahead of the front
Tue-Wed, with highs decreasing approx 10 degrees or so from Wed to
Thu, dropping to below normal for Thu and Fri. Some moderation back
to near normal is expected by Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

TAF period: With a minimal change in air mass over the last 24
hours, the forecast is generally persistence. Considering RDU/FAY
did not experience a visibility drop last night, changed the
prevailing MVFR visibilities to TEMPOs. While few sites around RWI
have had a visibility reduction so far, RWI went down at 06Z last
night, so will continue that timing in this forecast. Once fog
scatters out after sunrise, expect light winds out of the east-
northeast.

Outlook: Models are indicating another round of fog will be possible
Monday morning, but are quite different in how widespread it will
be. RWI still appears to be the most likely site to have fog. The
next chance for rain will be with a cold front entering Tuesday
night and continuing into Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Green