466
FXUS62 KRAH 121030
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid airmass holds in
place.

&&


.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Friday...

- Afternoon scattered showers and storms expected.
- Marginal Risk for severe storms and flash flooding.
- Heat indices climbing up into the low 100s for portions of the
Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Quiet conditions expected through much of the morning and daytime
hours. A few areas of low stratus and patchy fog are possible just
before dawn, but then lifting shortly after the sunrises. A weak
Piedmont trough across the region will help initiate some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.  MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 K/kg and
PWs of 1.5 to 2 will also aid in some stronger storms but with
weak flow, storms are expected to be more pulse like and short
lived. SPC has areas east of US-1 in the favorable location with a
Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms. Timing will range from mid
afternoon through evening hours. Some showers could linger through
around midnight.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s today. With dew points in
the low to mid 70s, expect heat indices to get into the lower 100s,
especially around the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will extend from the Gulf up the Eastern Seaboard,
as well as in the Southwest US, on Sunday and Sunday night. The mid-
level ridging over the Southeast US will begin to get suppressed a
bit by an incoming trough that moves east across the Great Lakes
region, associated with a cyclone moving NE across Ontario and
Quebec. This system will drag a cold front into the OH Valley by
Sunday evening. Meanwhile a weak area of surface low pressure will
drift south across the Carolinas to become centered off the GA/SC
coast. A warm and humid air mass will still be in place with high
temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s and heat indices in the low-
100s possible from the Triangle south and east. So SBCAPE will again
be around 2000-3000 J/kg. PW values across central NC will also
begin to increase back in the 2-2.25 inch range.

The above factors should result in better shower/storm coverage
across central NC on Sunday afternoon and evening compared to today,
and POPs are in the 50-60% range. High-res guidance shows
orographically-enhanced showers and storms spilling in from the
west, with potentially an influence from the sea breeze as well.
Still, latest HREF LPMM depicts only isolated pockets of heavy rain
(1-3 inches), and coverage won`t be as great as what we saw earlier
this week, as the mid-level ridging will still provide some
subsidence. Given the very weak steering flow, can`t rule out an
isolated slow-moving storm causing flash flooding issues, especially
over an urban area or where grounds are saturated from heavy
rainfall this week. Storms should be of the pulse variety with the
lack of shear, and no organized severe threat is expected.
Precipitation chances will diminish on Sunday night with mild lows
in the lower-to-mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM Saturday...

The mid/upper trough will move across the Northeast US on Monday,
then into the Canadian Maritimes on Tuesday. However, it looks to be
fairly broad, and the cold front will be weakening as it approaches
the central/southern Appalachians on Monday night. The front is
unlikely to make it here before fizzling out early-mid next week.
However, the proximity of the front combined with a continued warm
and humid air mass will result in elevated shower and storm chances
from Monday through Wednesday. So WPC has placed our region in a
marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday and
Tuesday. Any slow moving storms could result in flash flooding
concerns given how much rain has fallen lately, especially over the
Piedmont. Did cap POPs at likely given the lack of strong upper
forcing and reliance on daytime instability for precipitation
chances. The very weak flow should at least preclude an organized
severe threat. Forecast high temperatures decrease slightly from
upper-80s to lower-90s on Monday to mid-to-upper-80s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lows will remain in the lower-to-mid-70s.

POPs decrease slightly late next week as confidence decreases on the
overall synoptic pattern. The GFS depicts strengthening mid-level
ridging over the Southeast US with mostly dry conditions on Thursday
and Friday, while the ECMWF depicts deeper troughing over the Great
Lakes and Northeast US which suppresses the ridging to our SW. Still
keep POPs in the 50-60% range as plenty of GEFS are wet, and there
will be increasing southerly low-level flow around the Bermuda High
retrograding farther west. This will bring plenty of warm and moist
air to our region, with PW values remaining in the 2-2.25 inch
range. Forecast highs thus increase back to upper-80s to lower-90s,
which will certainly be enough for at least moderate destabilization
each day. Lows will still be in the lower-to-mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

Patchy low stratus and fog has been observed at the latest 10z obs
across portions of Central NC. Expect any  sub-VFR visibilities to
lift shortly after 12z. Otherwise VFR conditions will once again
dominate much of the day today with increased chance of
showers/storms in the afternoon through early evening. Storms are
expected to be isolated to scattered this afternoon and expect to
dissipate between 00z-06z. After which light winds and VFR
conditions will return for the much of the overnight hours. Much of
the area is expect to see another round of early morning low stratus
and fog Sunday morning, especially where rain had fallen the night
before.

Looking beyond 12z Sun, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into the middle of next week, with a risk for early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms
each afternoon into the evening. &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CA/Hartfield