475
FXUS62 KRAH 181305
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
905 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending down from the Mid-Atlantic into the central
and southern Appalachians will remain in place through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 905 AM Friday...

With minimal weather, there are minimal changes to the forecast. The
frost advisory has expired. Previous discussion follows.


As of 200 AM Friday...

The Frost Advisory will expire at 9 am this morning. High pressure
aloft and at the surface, located over the OH valley, will shift
into the northern Mid-Atlantic tonight. Northeasterly flow will
persist again today, with winds of 5 to 10 mph, highest in the east,
where the pressure gradient is strongest from an offshore low well
east of our area. The airmass today warms today, with low-level
thicknesses some 20m higher in the low-levels relative to Thu. This
should put us closer to average in the upper 60s to around 70 in
most places. Tonight, clear skies and light winds will again
develop, although guidance does show some light stirring in the east
overnight. With the modified airmass, lows should largely stay above
frost potential, generally in the low 40s, except upper 30s in the
outlying areas of the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

High pressure extending down the central and southern Appalachians
will slowly slide to the south and west toward the eastern TN
valley. The airmass will again modify from Fri, about some 10m in
thickness higher in the low-levels. This should put our highs mostly
in the lower 70s. This will be right about average for this time of
year. Generally clear skies and light winds again Sat night with
lows not as cool but still below normal in the low to mid 40s, with
some upper 30s in the outlying areas of the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

An omega block anchored by upper lows over the Central Atlantic and
Southwestern US will result in a mean upper level ridge over the
Midwest and Eastern US through early next week. After the ridge
peaks in amplitude this weekend, a northern stream short wave is
forecast to ride atop the ridge and result in some de-amplification
and westward shift of the ridge axis toward the Mississippi River
Valley by Monday. However, high-pressure will remain in place over
the mid-Atlantic states and continue the dry weather and moderation
of temperatures through the middle of the week.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned upper low over the southwest US is
forecast to eject and move through the ridge toward our region, but
a general lack of moisture return from the Gulf will keep that
feature relatively dry as well. Models then suggest another northern
stream shortwave will move  through the Great Lakes and send a cold
front our way by Thursday/Friday, with a general pattern shift
toward ridging over the central US and troughing off the East Coast.
 Confidence in this pattern shift is below average given some medium
range inconsistencies, but there is higher confidence in above
normal temperatures and continued dry weather through a good portion
of next week.

Highs will moderate each day with mid 70s early in the week and mid
to upper 70s from mid to late week, with a cool down possible by
next weekend if the cold front  reaches us.  Overnight lows will
generally increase from the mid 40s to mid 50s during the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Friday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Northeasterly surface winds today will be between 5 and 10 kt,
diminishing again tonight under high pressure.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue into the middle of
next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Green/Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Kren