068
FXUS62 KRAH 072353
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
755 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of mid and upper-level disturbances will overspread and
interact with a frontal zone that will settle into and stall over NC
this weekend through early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 242 PM Saturday...

* Level 2/Slight-Risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening

* Secondary round of strong to severe storms possible late tonight,
  although forecast confidence in how this evolves is low

Early afternoon radar and satellite imagery reveals developing
showers thunderstorms in the mountains of western NC and VA. For the
most part, clouds have scattered out across NC and the light area of
precip across the northern Coastal Plain has all but dissipated.
Meanwhile, temps have risen solidly into the mid 80s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s.

The previous forecast thinking remains largely on track, as it
appears we will have two opportunities for storms across the area.

Storm threat (Part 1 - this afternoon/evening): All the ingredients
for severe weather should be in place today, including MLCAPEs
around 1500-2000 J/KG, 30-40kts of deep shear, a trigger in the form
of the approaching shortwave trough/cold front, and widespread PW`s
around 150% of normal. The biggest question mark remains how much
areal coverage will be present today. 12Z-16Z runs of the HRRR still
maintain areas north of NC route 27 as a rough cut off for where
convection will be favored, along with portions of the southern
Coastal Plain. These general areas are also highlighted by elevated
HREF updraft strength probabilities and 12Z HRRR neural network
total severe probabilities. While severe ingredients will be in
place across the southwest Piedmont and Sandhills, CAM guidance
hasn`t been consistently enthused in advertising storms in that
area, likely owed to the fact that the primary triggering mechanism
will be displaced well to the north near the NC/VA border. That
being said, I will hang onto the highest PoPs in the north and east,
but certainly keep some mention of precip farther south. Damaging
50kt winds are the primary threat with this afternoon/evening`s
convection.

Storm threat (Part 2 - late tonight/overnight): Much lower
confidence in how things will evolve late tonight. The synoptic cold
front will slowly enter the area from the north late tonight,
stalling out across central NC in the process. While instability may
be lacking across the north late tonight thanks to the afternoon
convection and post-frontal airmass, we should still have nearly
1000 J/KG of uncapped MLCAPE on tap across the Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain. The convective complex currently across western TN
will move eastward this evening before crossing the mountains and
arriving in the western NC Piedmont before midnight. The general
consensus from the HREF and its member CAMs is that the complex will
weaken as it crosses the mountains, although there will still likely
be some showers that make it across with the potential for
strong/possibly severe winds. It`s possible that the complex of
storms dives south and remains outside our area, while it`s also
possible new convection develops within the untapped warm sector
across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain.  If this afternoon`s
storms are more widespread than forecast, that may wipe out the
instability across the area yielding a lesser severe threat tonight.
On the other side of the coin: if this afternoon is relatively
benign, tonight could be more active than previously thought. I`ll
hang onto PoPs for much of the overnight hours with the highest
values south of US-64 after midnight. Unfortunately the answer won`t
become clearer until we get through this afternoon.

As for temps, late day highs in the low to mid 90s still look on
track, with mild lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 242 PM Saturday...

* Level 2/Slight-Risk of severe storms continues into Sunday

Upper level low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley on Sunday,
with its associated surface low and front crossing the mountains
Sunday afternoon. It would appear the pre-frontal environment should
be very similar to that of today, featuring 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE,
plenty of moisture, but perhaps a bit more low and mid level shear.
(0-1km shear around 15kts vs 5-10kts today). Showers and storms
should develop area-wide tomorrow afternoon as a shortwave trough
rotates around the Ohio Valley low, with damaging winds once again
serving as the primary threat. However with a bit more shear in
place, along with likely lingering outflow boundaries from early
morning convection, SPC has maintained a low end 2% tornado
probability across the far northern Coastal Plain.

Potential flies in the ointment include remnant cloud cover from
upstream convection, which could slow daytime heating and trim back
how much MLCAPE is realized. Still, it seems like there are enough
factors in favor of convection that I will keep 50-60 PoPs across
the area. There is relatively good consensus that whatever develops
across NC tomorrow should exit the area before midnight, with dry
weather after 06Z onward.

Temps once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday afternoon,
with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...

Monday appears to be a bit of a lull when it comes to thunderstorms
compared to the coverage that is expected over the weekend. However,
it looks like coverage of showers may actually be greater Monday
night than Monday afternoon. While the last several days have shown
greater coverage of precipitation as a front moves through Tuesday.
both deterministic and ensemble models today are backing off
precipitation along central North Carolina, keeping precip confined
closer to the NC coastline. Likely pops are still expected along and
east of the US-1 corridor. The boundary will remain in the general
vicinity, primarily bringing a chance of storms to southeastern
counties Wednesday and southern counties Thursday. While
precipitation timing will follow a typical summer diurnal curve,
coverage will not be uniformly distributed - locations in the Triad
and along the Virginia border are likely to be completely dry
Wednesday and Thursday. Eventually as the boundary begins to shift
back to the north, the chance for showers/storms will return to all
locations Friday and Saturday.

As for temperatures, highs will be the coolest on Tuesday, with
values in the 80s. Otherwise, highs will generally range from the
mid 80s to the low 90s. Some mid 90s could even creep into the
forecast area next Saturday. Lows will generally range from the mid
60s to the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM Saturday...

Additional scattered showers and storms may be possible
overnight, but confidence in timing/spatial extent is still low.
Maintained at least a mention of thunder and gust potential
for a few hours overnight at all terminals to account for this
possibility.

Lastly, sub-VFR stratus and perhaps some patchy fog/reduced vsbys
appear possible at eastern terminals by ~09Z before lifting
to VFR by ~13 to 15Z Sunday.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong to severe. A sfc
cold front will stall across central NC Monday through Thursday
promoting diurnal showers and storms each day. Periods of morning
stratus and/or fog may be possible during this stretch.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett