829
FXUS62 KRAH 260624
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
223 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Highly anomalous and strong high pressure aloft will persist over
the Southeast through midweek and result in a prolonged heat wave
over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories issued for all of
  central NC from Saturday morning through Sunday evening.
* 595dam ridge will remain parked over the SE states today, thus no
  change in the synoptic scale setup for the current heat wave.
* Ambient temps will peak in the 95 to 100 deg range this afternoon,
  and when coupled with dwpts in the 70s will result in heat index
  values from 105 to 110, highest eastern half of central NC.
* Most of central NC most of today will remain dry. However, a few
  late-day thunderstorms over the higher terrain to our west may
  drift toward our Triad zones.  In addition, isold late-day showers
  can`t be ruled out across our eastern zones where the remnants of
  a backdoor front may move across and serve as a low level lifting
  mechanism for such showers.
* Lows tonight falling back to the mid-upr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

* No major changes. Excessive heat will continue to be the primary
  weather story, and as such, heat advisories and extreme heat
  warnings continue in this period.
* On the synoptic scale, the mid-level ridge center will drift west
  in response to a s/w trough moving across and off the Northeast
  and Mid-Atlantic coast.
* As a result of the aforementioned s/w trough, mid-level flow over
  our region will veer and increase, thus sharpening the Piedmont
  trough and allowing higher pwat air currently to our north to
  drift south across our area.  As such, shower/tstm coverage on
  Sunday will be somewhat higher than today, esp areas along/east of
  the I-95 corridor.
* No major changes regarding temps, dwpts, and resulting heat
  indices. Readings Sunday will be similar to, or perhaps even a
  couple degrees higher than today.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
As of 223 AM Saturday...

*Prolonged Heat Wave to Bring Record to Near-Record High/Low
Temperatures and Extreme Heat Related Impacts Through Much of Next
Week

*Relief From Extreme Heat Likely by Next Weekend

An expansive and anomalously strong mid/upper level ridge(+2 to +2.5
SD) centered over the Southeast US will retrograde slowly westward
next week. This pattern will support yet another significant,
prolonged and potentially record-setting heat wave across central
NC.

Highs Temperatures: Afternoon highs will range from 95 to 100
degrees F, with some locations possible reaching the lower 100s.

Overnight Lows: Nights will offer little relief, remaining in the
mid to upper 70s to near 80.

Heat Indices: Combined with BL dewpoints in the lower to mid and
upper 70s, heat indices will likely range from lower 100s west to
107-112 F across central and eastern NC.

Heat Risk: Due to long-duration nature of the heat and minimal
overnight relief, a large portion of central NC is forecast to be
under a Category 4-Extreme Heat Risk from through mid to late week.

Impacts: Such a long duration heat wave that last multiple days in a
row, often pose an elevated health risk. Both the Heat Advisory and
Heat Warning will likely need to be extended through at least mid
week due to the expected severity and persistence of the heat.

Plan ahead to limit outdoor activity, stay hydrated, and perform
wellness checks on the elderly and individuals without adequate
cooling systems.

Rain chances: Convective rain chances will be limited under the
dominate ridge with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
possible each afternoon and early evening.

However, there is growing model support that disturbances or MCVs
moving atop the ridge and embedded in NW flow aloft(often difficult
to resolve in guidance at longer lead times) could significantly
enhance convective coverage and intensity, especially during the
late Monday and Tuesday time period. Trends Will need to monitored
closely as higher-resolution model guidance comes into play.

Pattern shift and Airmass Change: By late week, increasing model
consensus suggests the ridge will shift westward into the central
US, allowing a shortwave trough and attendant cold front to pass
through the region. The front is expected to a good chance of
widespread showers and storms, with localized moderate to heavy
rainfall late Thursday and into Friday.

In addition to increase rain chances, the front will mark and end to
the oppressive heat, transitioning to below-normal temperatures by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. A few
areas of patchy fog have developed in the northeast already tonight,
however it currently appears like it will not impact any TAF
terminals. The best chance for sub-VFR visibility restrictions for
fog will be at RWI, however kept it out for now. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail overnight into tomorrow with light winds
which will veer from westerly to southeasterly and VFR clouds moving
through the region. Isolated showers are possible during the
afternoon and evening. The best chance currently looks to be in the
Triad (INT/GSO), followed by the southeast (FAY).

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern will prevail through early
next week, featuring isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven
showers and storms each day. Patchy low stratus and/or fog will be
possible each morning, particularly in the humid areas or in the
vicinity of localized heavy rain from the day before.


&&

.CLIMATE...

Abnormally hot and humid weather starting today and persist well
into next week and will result in a prolonged period of dangerous
heat during the daytime with little overnight relief. High
temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the
low/mid 100s, but the best chance may be Saturday. Long-duration
abnormally warm overnight lows will have a chance to break daily
records through the weekend and likely persist well into next week.


Record High Temperatures:

July 26 (Saturday):
KGSO: 102/1914
KRDU: 101/2005
KFAY: 104/1940

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 104/1914
KRDU: 104/1940
KFAY: 106/1940

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 100/1952
KRDU: 104/1952
KFAY: 105/1940

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 101/1952
KRDU: 104/2011
KFAY: 103/2011

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 26 (Saturday):
KGSO: 76/2016
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 80/2005

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002

July 31 (Thursday):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>009-
021-022-038-039-073-074-083.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
NCZ010-011-023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Helock
CLIMATE...RAH