559
FXUS62 KRAH 081948
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
247 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back-door cold front will sag slowly south across NC through the
afternoon and early evening. High pressure will build into the area
from the north tonight and Saturday. Moisture will begin to
overspread the area from the west Sunday, ahead of a cold front that
will move through the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Friday...

The Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. The forecast otherwise
remains unchanged from below.

Previous discussion issued at 200 AM Friday...

Limited by the very dry mid and upper levels, latest hi-res model
guidance continues to depict isolated showers and/or sprinkles this
morning and through the afternoon as the front slips south. So far,
convection has been next to none. Thus, reality is under performing
and that will likely be the case until mid to late morning, when
weak buoyancy develops via tempered heating/insolation.

Low-level post frontal dry air advection will lead to north-south
scouring out of the morning fog and stratus. Highs today ranging
from mid/upper 70s across the north, with lower 80s elsewhere.

Substantial sfc pressures and CAA from the north will get underway
tonight. While this will be a marked cool down from the past several
days, lows tonight will still average 7 to 12 degrees above normal.
Lows ranging from mid/upper 40s north to lower/mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

Aloft, the amplifying sub-tropical ridge will progress eastward
through the eastern US Sat/Sat night, while a low lifts newd from
the central Plains to the upper MS Valley. At the surface, high
pressure will continue ridging swd through the area Sat/Sat night as
the center of the ~1029mb high progresses esewd from the eastern
Great Lakes through the Northeast US. Expect the weather to be dry
Sat/Sat night. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal,
with highs in the low/mid 60s NE to upper 60s SW. Lows are a bit
trickier, as increasing cloud cover Sat night may dampen the degree
of radiational cooling. Low level thicknesses are forecast to be in
the 1340-1355 meter range (from NW to SE), with generally calm to
light winds, especially across the north and northwest. For now,
expect lows generally in the low mid 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the usual cooler spots and where the clouds are latest
to fill in.

&&

.LONG TERM /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 247 PM Friday...

Flow will turn more zonal over central NC Saturday night as a strong
trough lifts across the central US. Flow will turn swly Sunday as
anomalous moisture spreads across the eastern seaboard.  The trough
will push off the Atlantic Monday, followed by brief mid-level
ridging through Wednesday. Another trough and associated moisture
will move through Thursday into Friday.

PWAT will remain slightly below normal Saturday night with residual
wnwly flow aloft. This will promote dry conditions through much of
Sunday morning.  By Sunday afternoon, POPs will increase from west
to east as pre-frontal isentropic lift produces stratiform rain into
the overnight period.  Dew points should remain in the 50s, and with
lingering weak CAD conditions, the atmosphere should remain
relatively stable Sunday leading to low QPF amounts through Monday
morning. Ensemble QPF remains light through early Monday morning,
perhaps only a few tenths (highest across the NC/VA border).

By Monday afternoon, lingering anomalous moisture will combine with
a cold frontal passage and promote continued chances for rain into
the evening. Dew points will rise into the mid to upper 60s Monday
afternoon and any lingering CAD wedge should be eroded. As such,
precipitation may be a bit more showery in nature. Additionally,
can`t rule out thunderstorms as some CAPE will likely develop. Will
have to wait a few more forecast cycles to get into specifics for
Monday afternoon/evening.   Any lingering rain should push east by
Monday night as nwly flow and drying builds from aloft.

After dry days on Tuesday and Wednesday, another system will
approach Thursday. Models are not as enthused with this trough,
suggesting perhaps a much less amplified feature compared to
Sunday/Monday`s trough. Additionally, it appears to be possibly a
bit more moisture starved as well. As such, for now, will just
maintain slight chance to chance PoPs through this period.

Temperature wise, residual wedge conditions will promote highs in
the upper 50s/lower 60s (NW) to lower 70s (SE) on Sunday.  Pre-
frontal warming will push temps back up into the lower to mid 70s
Monday. Temps will cool into the mid to upper 60s for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

A slow-moving cold front, and lingering low-level moisture along and
ahead of it, will maintain a risk of MVFR ceilings for another hour
or three at FAY, RWI, and RDU. Following high pressure will favor
VFR conditions otherwise and elsewhere through the 18Z TAF period.
Nely flow behind the front will strengthen and become gusty for a
short time after sunrise on Sat, then weaken through the afternoon.

Outlook: "Return", sly flow, and associated moisture advection,
will contribute to the inland development/expansion of MVFR ceilings
late Sat night-early Sun. These ceilings are likely to lower to IFR
over the Piedmont, where rain and cold air damming will become likely,
later Sun-Sun night, then continue through early Mon. A chance of
showers will accompany a passing cold front late Mon-Mon night, with
following high pressure and VFR conditions through the middle of
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 8:
KGSO: 57/1975
KRDU: 64/1895
KFAY: 65/1946


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...MWS/Helock
CLIMATE...RAH