392
FXUS62 KRAH 022345
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure moves up the East Coast tonight, high pressure will
move into the Southeast for Wednesday and Thursday before low
pressure along the Gulf Coast brings a chance of a wintry mix
Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

As the main surface low moves off the VA/NC coast early this
afternoon and tracks northeast along the US coastline, rain will
taper from west to east. Most of central NC should be dry by late
afternoon. High pressure over Tennessee will gradually build in
tonight, bringing clearing skies and a continued northwest breeze
with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Highs today will remain in the
upper 40s to around 50. Overnight lows will fall into the midupper
20s across the northwest and generally the lower 30s elsewhere, with
most locations at or below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue on Wednesday as high pressure remains in
control of the Mid-Atlantic. Expect mostly sunny skies with light
and variable winds through the day. Highs will run about 10 degrees
below average, ranging from the mid to upper 40s, with a few low 50s
possible across the south. Overnight, calm winds and reduced cold
advection will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to
around 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM Tuesday...

An Arctic surface high will move east from the Upper MS Valley on
Thursday morning to become centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic
on Thursday night. Meanwhile a shortwave over the Southern Plains
will spawn a surface low over the NW Gulf which moves to the north-
central Gulf Coast on Thursday night. Despite skies becoming mostly
cloudy to overcast as the system begins to spread Gulf moisture into
the area, Thursday afternoon`s highs will be a bit milder, ranging
from around 50 in the far north to upper-50s in the far south. A dry
cold front on the leading edge of the high to our north will move
through central NC in the evening. Forecast lows Thursday night are
chilly despite the overcast skies, ranging from mid-20s far north to
mid-30s far south.

The aforementioned shortwave will flatten as it moves through the OH
Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. At the surface, models depict the
area of low pressure moving NE to just off the coast of the
Carolinas late Friday. As Gulf moisture overruns the surface ridging
that will be in place from the high to our north, precipitation will
begin to spread across the Carolinas. Confidence in timing and
amounts is still low as guidance has been waffling back and forth,
but the 12z GFS now aligns more with the ECMWF on an earlier start
time, with both models (and around half of their ensemble members)
bringing in mid-level WAA induced precipitation from the south and
west by late Thursday night and early Friday morning. The NAM is now
coming into range, and while not quite as fast as the GFS/ECMWF, it
still brings in precipitation by early to mid morning. This faster
timing means the greatest confidence in precipitation is now on
Friday afternoon and evening, when POPs are likely to categorical.
The GFS also wraps up a deeper coastal low now like the ECMWF, and
overall QPF has ticked back slightly upward, around a third of an
inch to an inch (lowest NW, highest SE).

The main potential hazard with this event is the possibility of some
frozen precipitation over the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain at the start, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. An
earlier start time as depicted by the latest guidance would result
in a better chance for snow and ice as it gives more time for
precipitation to fall while we are still under the influence of the
cold high to our north before it moves offshore. Partial thickness
nomograms from both NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings indicate a period
of snow transitioning to sleet and freezing rain for several hours
on Friday morning around the Triad. While surface temperatures look
pretty marginal, forecast model soundings indicate fairly cold air
in the mid-levels with a fairly isothermal temperature profile. This
may favor more sleet and snow vs freezing rain. A brief wintry mix
will even be possible farther south at places like RDU, while much
of the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern Coastal
Plain should be warm enough for mainly rain. However, given the
spread in guidance and that this is still three days away, the
forecast is certainly subject to change, and it is important to stay
tuned for the latest updates. The progressive nature of the pattern
will allow for the high to quickly move east into the Atlantic on
Friday afternoon, cutting off our cold air source. So any frozen
precipitation will change over to plain rain even in the far north
by Friday late afternoon or evening. The temperature forecast
confidence is low on Friday as well due to the previously mentioned
factors, but it will certainly be chilly with highs in the mid-30s
to mid-40s.

As high pressure moves in from the west behind the departing low,
rain will come to an end on Friday night and temperatures will drop
into the upper-20s to upper-30s. Additional shortwaves then look to
pass through our region, spawning additional waves of surface low
pressure riding along the stalled front to our south. One looks to
be on Saturday night/Sunday and another stronger one on Sunday
night/Monday. So continue some low-end POPs during this time, but
confidence on details is very low. At this time expecting mainly
liquid precipitation, but there will be enough chilly air around
that something frozen can`t be ruled out across the north. This
weekend`s forecast highs are in the mid-40s to lower-50s both days,
with lows in the upper-20s to mid-30s. Behind a cold frontal passage
on Sunday night, forecast highs decrease to lower-40s to lower-50s
on Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence in TAFs beginning with IFR/LIFR
ceilings, but low confidence in exactly how long it will take for
conditions to improve. All model guidance continues to be too fast
in scattering out low clouds - INT/GSO are supposed to already be
clear, but ceilings remain. The clearing trend in the 00Z TAFs has
been slowed down, but may still be too fast. Eventually, clouds will
scatter out this evening as the wind shifts to the northwest,
bringing drier air into the area. Cannot rule out a brief gust at
INT/GSO, but the threat of gusts is minimal elsewhere. As high
pressure moves in overnight, the wind will eventually become light
and variable, continuing into Wednesday with clear skies.

Outlook: Another storm system is expected Fri into Sat and will
likely bring flight restrictions to all central NC terminals. A
period of snow/sleet remains possible for the northern terminals
(GSO/INT/RDU) Fri morning before transitioning to all rain by the
afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...ca
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green/AS