154
FXUS62 KRAH 100723
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A polar front will sweep across the region tonight. A vigorous mid
and upper-level trough and Arctic cold front will then move across
the region late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

* A hard freeze tonight will end the growing season.

* A record strong and cold upper level trough will bring a chance of
  light snow and flurries mainly along and north of Hwy 64 this
  evening into the overnight hours.

* Strong blustery winds tonight/Tuesday morning will produce wind
  chills in the teens.

Overview: A Freeze Warning remains in effect areawide tonight. An
Arctic cold front now over E NC will push offshore later this
morning, with a very cold air mass moving into the region through
tonight. This is being driven by a powerful mid-upper low that is
now centered over S Lk Michigan and which will strengthen and dig
over the Carolinas as it shifts to the E US through tonight. By
several metrics, the strength of this mid-upper low is unprecedented
or nearly so; the 925-500 mb temperatures and 700-500 mb heights
over our region are projected to be at or below the 1st percentile
tonight. The incoming post-frontal surface air mass, a very large
and frigid high now centered over the Upper Midwest, will continue
moving SSE toward the Gulf states as its cold air advects into our
area. Clouds linger over the E CWA, E of a 150+ kt SW upper jet
situated ahead of the incoming trough, and while much of these will
shift to our E by midday, additional scattered to broken clouds are
expected to develop later this afternoon, lasting into tonight.

Temps/winds: Colder air will continue to spill into our area in
waves early this morning, with temps dropping into the mid 30s to
mid 40s NW to SE through daybreak. Strong CAA and reduced insolation
later today combined with low level thicknesses 50+ m below normal
supports highs from the mid 40s NW to mid 50s SE. Then tonight,
several factors support lows in the lower 20s to around 30,
including statistical guidance (which has been very consistent),
projected thicknesses around 75 m below normal, and the anomalous
nature of the cold temps/low heights just aloft. These lows should
hold above record lows for the date, however, with continued mixing
overnight as surface winds are expected to stay up in the 10-15 mph
range with occasional gusts up to 15-25 mph today through tonight.
This will bring a firm end to the growing season in central NC. Wind
chills in the teens are likely over most of the area early Tue
morning.

Precipitation chances: A strong vorticity max swinging through the
mean trough base will move into W NC by early this evening then
cross the state through tonight. Intense forcing for ascent is
expected, with 925-700 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5-8.0 C/km and a
few hours of near saturation through much of this mixed depth, as
the tropopause is expected to drop below 550 mb. Recent
deterministic models and ensemble systems favor a chance of light
precip across northern sections tonight, mainly from 10p to 5a, and
this is further supported by the latest few CAM iterations. This
would most certainly fall as light snow showers given the high
likelihood of ice in the cloud and the sub-freezing air temps
expected near the ground. As previous shifts have noted, the risk
for any accumulation on pavement is very low given the warm ground
temps (State Climate Office ECONet data shows 10 cm soil temps still
in the upper 50s to lower 60s) and the drying effects of a NW low
level flow component. But a few flakes may accrue on grassy and
elevated surfaces, esp in the far N part of the NC Piedmont. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

* Highs 15-20 degrees below normal in the mid to upper 40s

* Gusty WNW winds of 25 to 30 mph combined with RH in the mid to
  upper 20s favor fire danger concerns

The deep trough from Mon will exit off the Eastern Seaboard by Tue
afternoon, with height rises shifting east by the afternoon and
evening. The anomalously cold Arctic airmass will be well
entrenched, with cold high pressure extending in from the Deep
South. High temperatures during the day will be some 15 to 20
degrees below average in the middle to upper 40s. The last time we
saw these values was back in February.

The pressure gradient will remain tight with the departing trough.
West to northwest winds will gust at times to 25 to 30 mph. In
addition, very dry air with dewpoints in the teens will promote very
low RH values in the middle to upper 20s. This overall combination
will risk elevated fire danger concerns. We will let the day shift
reach out to NCFS on whether a statement may be needed. Some areas
certainly saw rain over the last 72 hours, but there were also
several areas which saw little to no rain.

High pressure will shift over the SE US Tue night, with flow
becoming SW. The gradient remains elevated with broad low pressure
to the north. We may decouple just enough to favor lows once again
cold in the low to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

* Temperatures moderate into the 60s much of the remainder of the
  week and upcoming weekend

* Fire danger concerns on Wed with another gusty day with low RH
  levels

* Rain chances may return Sunday but uncertainty is still high

Troughing will persist across the region Wed as another shortwave
embedded in the flow tracks ESE across the central to northern Mid-
Atlantic. West-southwest flow will remain elevated in the low-
levels, combined with a persistent tight pressure gradient between
the high to our south over northern FL and low pressure in Canada.
Gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range will be common during the day. The
airmass also modifies with highs rebounding to the lower 60s. RH
levels will remain low in the upper 20s to middle 30s, favoring
another day of possible fire danger concerns across NC.

High pressure will gradually settle into the area Thu and Fri,
relaxing the pressure gradient and favoring weaker winds. At the
same time, the airmass will continue to modify as mid-level ridging
shifts east from the MS valley. Highs should rise near to slightly
above average in the low to middle 60s.

By the weekend, models are still struggling with how far south a
backdoor cold front could reach early Sat. Some guidance keeps it up
in VA, while other solutions bring it through eastern sections of
the state, perhaps lingering into Sun. If that were to verify, highs
could be lower than currently advertised. For now, we are showing
highs remaining in the low/mid to upper 60s.

Ensemble guidance is mixed on a potential storm system that could
approach from the west late Sun or early next week Mon. Some
clusters show low pressure over the MS valley, with precipitation
spreading east late Sun, for example the GFS. Other solutions,
however, show dry northwest flow, shown by the AI-GFS and EC-AIFS.
Confidence is low overall as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

A strong cold front currently over the NC Coastal Plain will
continue pushing E early this morning, moving offshore by mid
morning. An area of light rain with VFR conditions now over the E
(RWI/FAY) will exit by 07z. VFR clouds persist at all central NC
terminals, but these will gradually clear out early this morning, by
around 08z at INT/GSO, around 10z at RDU, and 12z-14z at RWI/FAY.
Then, redevelopment of sct-bkn clouds based around 7kft AGL is
expected after 18z, mostly lasting through the end of the TAF valid
period, as a powerful mid-upper level moves in from the W. Patchy
light snow showers are possible late in the forecast period, after
02z, at INT/GSO, and perhaps reaching RDU prior to 06z Tue, lasting
for an hour or two. Cigs may drop to ~3500 ft AGL with this
activity, and brief sub-VFR conditions are not out of the question,
so will monitor closely for this potential.

Surface winds will be from the WNW or NW through the period,
sustained at 8-15 kts with frequent gusts up to 18-24 kts,
particularly early this morning and again starting late afternoon
through the end of the forecast period.

Looking beyond 06z Tue, the chance for patchy light snow showers and
brief sub-VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours at
RDU and RWI, however clear skies are expected after 10z, and VFR
conditions should prevail thereafter at all sites through Fri. Winds
will again be gusty from late morning through afternoon Tue from the
WNW, and on Wed from the WSW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 8 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Hartfield