677
FXUS62 KRAH 260032
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
732 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge front will remain quasi-stationary over the northwest
Piedmont through early Wednesday. A strong, polar front will sweep
across NC later Wednesday into early Wednesday night. Cold high
pressure will follow and build from northwestern Canada to the
Middle Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Tuesday...

The chance for widely scattered showers...driven mainly by WAA with
increasing southerly flow ahead of the approaching trough...will
continue in the forecast through this evening. In-situ CAD and cloud
cover continues to keep the northwest Piedmont and Triad cool as
noted by current temps holding in the lower 60s. Farther east
outside of the CAD region and where there`s sunshine (mainly along
and east of I-95)...temps attm are in the low-mid 70s.  Rain chances
will increase tonight, particularly around and after midnight as a
band of prefrontal showers moves across central NC. Look for temps
overnight to hold in the upper 50s across the Triad with temps
holding in the 60s east of the Triad.  Rainfall amounts will
generally be a 1/2 inch or less, but there could be pockets of
higher rainfall amounts where the deeper convection/showers occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 121 PM Tuesday...

A strong front will sweep across central North Carolina from late
morning through the afternoon on Wednesday. Ahead of the front,
highs will reach the 70s.  Until the actual cold front moves
through, the risk for widely scattered showers can`t be ruled out,
but the best chance for rain should occur tonight through mid-
morning Wednesday assoc with the prefrontal trough.

The chance for showers will end quickly behind the front, with a
sharp push of cold dry air arriving Wednesday night as a secondary
front moves through. Winds will be breezy from the SW at 1020 mph,
shifting to the NW late in the day and into the evening.
Temperatures will fall steadily Wednesday night, dropping into the
30s for low temps by Thursday morning across much of central NC
(lower 30s north and northwest with mid-upr 30s elsewhere).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

* Marginal Fire Wx concerns Thurs and especially Fri.

* Low forecast confidence as we head into a potentially more active
  pattern Sun into early next week.

Thanksgiving day will be dry as high pressure continues to build in
from the Central Plains. A big temperature swing from Wednesday as
we go from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal on
Thursday. Northwest flow will continue to usher in cooler air with
highs in the upper 40s NW to low/mid 50s SE.  New model data is
showing a few mid/high clouds move across the region during the
first half of the day with clearing skies in the afternoon. As the
reinforcing dry cold front will cross the region late Thursday
bringing chilly temperatures and winds are expected to pick up in
the afternoon with gusts expected to be 15-20mph. There is a
marginal fire weather concern for Thursday as winds pick up and dew
point/RH values drop quickly in the afternoon. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s NW to near 30 in the
SE. Wind chills could get into the upper teens overnight/early
morning Friday. Northwest flow will persist into Friday as the
Canadian high dives south into the TN valley bringing another rush
of chilly temperatures and gusty winds. Thus, another day of fire
weather concerns. Fridays high temperatures will struggle to get to
50 degrees with much of the region expected to stay in the low/mid
40s, and apparent temperatures will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Friday night radiational cooling will be at its best and lows will
range from the low 20s to mid 20s across central NC. Friday night is
expected to be the coldest temperatures of the season!

High pressure will shift off to the Northeast Saturday bringing a
NE/E flow. Highs will begin to warm gradually through the weekend
with Saturday highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows generally still
be low freezing ranging from 28-32 degrees.

Another weather system moving across the MS valley is expected to
move into the Mid-Atlantic region as early as Sunday morning
bringing increased rain chances for early next week. Long range
models are far from agreement on how the system will develop and
shift across the region thus will have to watch the system more
closely as it moves onshore into the Pacific NW region later this
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...

Sub-VFR conditions are expected for much of the overnight hours into
Wednesday afternoon. Over the next few hours, most likely IFR to
potentially LIFR ceilings are expected to move north into the region
as a layer of moist air from the Atlantic spreads across the region.
As the moist air hits the cooler CAD airmass in the Triad, areas of
fog may also form, especially at INT. Additionally, a band of
prefrontal showers will move across central NC tonight and into the
morning which could further deteriorate ceiling and visibility
restrictions. Also ahead of the front, a 45-50 kt jet is likely and
should weaken as it moves across the region. Thus, LLWS was
introduced at INT/GSO and is likely going to be weaker at
RDU/FAY/RWI so was not included at those sites at this time. VFR
conditions will return by Wednesday afternoon, however gusts of
around 20 kts in the Triad and 25-30 kt gusts everywhere else appear
to be possible.

Outlook: VFR conditions appear likely through at least Saturday,
with the chance of rain returning Sunday ahead of another cold front.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...LH