700
FXUS62 KRAH 140644
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Temperatures trending cooler for Tuesday morning into
  Wednesday morning.

* Precipitation chances late week into the weekend continue to
  trend down with the return of convective chances being pushed
  later into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 230 AM Monday...

1) Seasonable and drier conditions Tues through Wed night with
unseasonably warm weather returning late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable and drier conditions Tues through
Wed night with unseasonably warm weather returning late week
into the weekend.

A surface cold front is still slowly working its way through
the lower Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic based on the 06z
observations. Ahead of this front however, a pre-frontal
trough, roughly around the I-95 corridor, is slowly ushering in
slightly drier air across the Piedmont and slowly advancing
eastward. Model guidance continues to push the cold front into
and through our region from the north-northeast as a backdoor
cold front through peak heating into this evening. Thankfully,
drier air mixing down to the surface behind the pre-frontal
trough (mean mixing-ratio at 00z GSO RAOB 13.4 compared to 17.7
at MHX) will greatly limit instability along and ahead of the
front this afternoon. Isolated sprinkles or a shower or two
can`t be ruled out, especially across the Sandhills and
southern/central Coastal Plain where favorable diurnal timing,
500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and glancing influence from trough axis
pivoting across and offshore of the northern Mid-Atlantic may
overcome marginal instability and drier mid/upper-lvl air.

A prolonged period of minimal convective chances is expected
behind the frontal passage as a seasonably significant mid/upper
lvl subtropical ridge (+2.5 to 3 standardized height anomalies
from 850 to 200mb Tues through Thurs night) builds over the TN
Valley and southern Appalachians; perhaps even reaching 600 dam
at H5 by Wed. A brief dip down to seasonable temperatures is
expected post cold-frontal passage Tues and perhaps lingering
into Wed before moderating back to 10-15 degrees above normal as
the ridge flattens and anomalous H85 temps sag south into the
Carolinas into the weekend. Forecast uncertainty remains on when
convective chances return to the region as how/when the
anomalous ridge loosens its grip over the Carolinas remains
highly inconsistent among NWP models; below normal PoPs may
linger until late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF
period. Lingering moist low-lvl moisture, with dew points and
afternoon crossover temperatures in the low 70s, may result in
patchy wisps of surface mist (1-5 SM) in the typical cool spots.
RWI may experience temporary restrictions from mist/fog in the
7-11z window due to local effects before relatively drier air
over the Piedmont advects eastward this morning. Periodic light
stirring the fleeting cigs in the 6-9 kft layer prevents greater
confidence in mist/fog to occur. Prevailing northwest winds
after sunrise will veer out of the north-northeast post backdoor
cold front with frequent gusts of around 15 kts, especially at
RWI and FAY through the afternoon into the evening.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions expected as deep high
pressure persists over the region through at least Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS