240
FXUS62 KRAH 052358
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
658 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stable high pressure will linger over our region tonight. Surface
low pressure will develop along with coast tonight, then move up the
east coast and off New England Thursday. A cold front will approach
the region Thursday night and early Friday, followed by high
pressure Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Wednesday...

An overcast and chilly afternoon.

The backdoor cold front has moved to our south. The surface winds
were NE throughout the region behind the front. Cold and dry
advection at the surface has kept temperatures in check. The latest
satellite and RAOB data continue to indicate a layer of
stratocumulus over much of central NC due to the increasing moist
ESE flow between H925 and H850. The inversion at H85 will continue
to stabilize the lower levels. Expect an overcast and chilly
afternoon with temperatures holding nearly steady or only going up a
few degrees, mid 40s NE to lower 50s S. Rain chances are slim, with
only a few sprinkles expected, mainly NE.

The overcast conditions will continue tonight as low pressure
develops along the coast with a lingering stable near surface layer
over much of central NC. The low pressure will lift north tonight to
off the VA Capes. This will keep a light NE flow over the region,
becoming light to calm late. The lowering overcast late tonight may
create some fog early Thursday, especially in the north and east.
There is a chance of light rain late tonight, especially across the
north, closer to the upper support that will track across VA/MD.
Most of the precipitation will be well to our north, with possibly
up to a tenth or so along or near the NC/VA border. Lows will range
from the upper 30s NE to the mid/upper 40s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

At sunrise Thursday morning, low pressure is expected to be just to
the east of Norfolk with a wide precipitation shield extending back
to the west. It appears that the bulk of the precipitation shield
should be from Virginia to the north, and one of the biggest
variations between models is how far south the precipitation will
extend into North Carolina. The forecast calls for likely pops to
slip south of the VA/NC border mid-morning Thursday before rain
retreats back to the north during the late morning and into the
afternoon. The NAM remains a dry outlier with all of this, which is
curious because typically the NAM is one of the better models at
handling cold-air damming wedges such as the one in place today, and
right now it is one of the driest models, yet also one of the
coldest models. After conditions briefly dry out during the
afternoon, a cold front will move through the region Thursday night,
bringing a renewed chance of rain to the forecast. While an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, primarily as elevated convection,
think that conditions will remain too stable for thunderstorms and
have gone with stratiform rain as the mode of precipitation.

The trickiest part of tomorrow`s forecast may turn out to be the
cloud cover, which in turn leads to well below normal confidence in
the daytime temperatures. The NAM and GFS both show a layer of low
clouds through much of the day, although the layer is not
excessively thick, especially farther to the south. The NAM thinks
temperatures will stay in the 50s, which is the coldest outlier.
Meanwhile, Canadian regional/global guidance is in the 70s, which
are the warm outliers. The new forecast is slightly cooler than the
previous forecast, primarily blending in the NBM 25th percentile.
This results in a range of temperatures from 60 to 75 degrees,
warmest in the south where the cloud cover should be the least.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM WEDNESDAY...

A mid/upper trough moving across New England will drag a cold front
to its south that moves through central NC on Friday morning before
it stalls over SC. This will bring a low chance for rain across
southern zones, but the best upper forcing will go well to our north
and the low-level flow will turn to a dry northwesterly direction.
So any amounts would be light, and skies will turn partly to mostly
sunny during the day. The front will linger over SC on Friday night
and Saturday, with isentropic lift bringing an increase in clouds
and possible patchy light rain. POPs are still only in the slight to
low chance range, initially highest across the south before shifting
to the north. Total amounts on Friday/Saturday are expected to be
less than a tenth of an inch. High temperatures on Friday will still
be mild, ranging from mid-60s to lower-70s, and low temperatures
Friday night will stay mild (upper-30s to upper-40s) with all the
cloud cover. Leaned toward cooler guidance on Saturday with the CAD,
and there will likely be a strong temperature gradient across the
area. Forecast highs range from upper-40s in the far NE to lower-60s
in the far SW.

The boundary will also move back north through the area as a warm
front on Saturday evening, which should bring mostly dry conditions
and clearing skies on Saturday night and early Sunday. After a very
mild Saturday night (lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s), yet another
shortwave moving across southern Canada and northern New England
will drag a cold front through central NC on Sunday morning and
afternoon. Precipitation amounts again look light with the shortwave
passing so far to our north, with only slight to low chance POPs in
the south. Models depict potential for a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in
the south, as forecast highs are in the upper-60s to upper-70s, but
with such weak forcing, widespread thunder is not expected.

Temperatures will again turn cooler behind the front on Sunday night
(lows in the mid-30s to lower-40s). As cool high pressure wedges
down from the NE, temperatures will stay on the cool side from
Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 40s to mid-50s.
Precipitation chances will increase during this period from a
combination of isentropic lift and a series of perturbations aloft
at least providing some upper forcing. The best chance at this time
appears to be on Tuesday as a shortwave passes to our west and mid-
level heights fall. Ensemble guidance has trended toward mainly rain
and less snow chances with the precipitation Monday through
Wednesday, and forecast lows are mainly in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
However, still can`t rule out a bit of snow or mixed precipitation
in the north, and will need to watch this in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

Widespread MVFR cigs will gradually lower to IFR tonight into Thurs
morning, earliest at RWI. An area of light drizzle will blossom near
RWI into eastern NC and persist for several hours before shifting
east. An approaching weak disturbance may bring isolated to
scattered showers across central NC. Confidence is low on timing and
intensity. Earlier passage would be mostly isolated light showers,
but a later passage may bring scattered light to moderate showers
and potential vsby restrictions. Cigs will gradually lift from south
to north into Thurs afternoon with the development of southwesterly
wind gusts into the evening hours. A separate area of showers may
sag south into northern NC from VA during the afternoon hours as
well, but coverage appears to be scattered at this time to preclude
any inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

Looking beyond 12z Thu, Areas of sub-VFR conditions may return Thu
night along and ahead of a cold front approaching the region. This
front will waver over the southern Mid-Atlantic through the forecast
period with passing disturbances brings chances for sub-VFR
conditions Fri/Fri night and again Sun through Mon night.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

February 9:
KGSO: 69/1994
KRDU: 75/2023
KFAY: 75/2023


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

February 9:
KGSO: 52/1994
KFAY: 60/1937

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM..Danco
AVIATION...Swiggett
CLIMATE...RAH