547
FXUS62 KRAH 040528
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area
of low pressure off the Southeast coast could move into the area
Sunday, bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Not as humid but still heat indices in the 90s
* Low chances of storms in the southern Coastal Plain

Ridging over the mid-section of the country and troughing near ME
will promote a northerly flow today at mid-levels. High pressure
over the northern Mid-Atlantic and NE US will nose down today and
tonight, with NE flow. Lower dewpoint air will filter down from the
north, where some guidance suggests upper 50s to low/mid 60s
dewpoints for portions of the area. The exception is over the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills where lingering moisture will keep
dewpoints a tad higher. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
Even with the lower dewpoint air, heat indices should still be in
the mid/upper 90s from the Triangle south so appropriate heat safety
is still warranted for the holiday. There is a low-end chance of a
few isolated storms in the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain today into early evening along a lingering moisture gradient
and where a weak perturbation is at mid-levels. Activity looks
rather sparse, however, in the CAM guidance. Lows tonight will be
closer to average in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Less humid and more comfortable conditions
* Slight uptick in scattered shower/storm chances along/east of I-95

High pressure over the NE US will gradually shift off the coast late
Sat. At the same time, we will be watching the weak area of low
pressure that NHC is monitoring east of Jacksonville, FL that is
forecast to be somewhere off the coast of SC by early Sun. The two
pressure systems will again promote an ENE flow. Dewpoints are
forecast to be lower still relative to Fri, promoting heat indices
only in the upper 80s to around 90. It should feel more comfortable,
even with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. There will be a
slightly better chance of some isolated to scattered storms in the
day and evening, mainly for areas along/east of I-95. Moisture
transport north of the approaching low is set to increase into Sun
morning. Ridging during the day, however, should keep the best
chances mainly south and east of the Triangle. Increasing cloud
cover and the higher rain chances by Sun should favor warmer lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

* Mostly dry conditions expected Saturday, with isolated to
  scattered showers/storms possible in the southeast.

* A tropical development is possible in the Atlantic this weekend.
  Regardless of development, rain chances will increase Sunday and
  Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Thursday.

Saturday, the region will stay under the influence of high pressure
and upper level ridging. This should keep the day mostly dry.
However, showers and embedded storms may be possible in the
southeast portions of the CWA Saturday evening if moisture is faster
to return to the region ahead of the potential tropical system that
may develop off the coast. This can be seen in the ECMWF, which
brings moisture into the region faster than other models. Regardless
of if a tropical system is able to develop, rain chances will
increase Sunday and Monday due to this potential tropical system and
increased moisture. Currently the only hazards expected locally with
this system are locally heavy rain and a few stronger storms.
Tuesday through Thursday, we return to a period of diurnally induced
showers and storms possible each afternoon and evening.

Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal each day in the
long term. Saturday should have maximum temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s. Sunday should cool down slightly, into the upper
80s, due to increased cloud cover and rain chances. Monday through
Thursday should warm into the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices
may return to the low 100s Tuesday through Thursday. Lows should
generally be in the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Friday...

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The one
exception is at RWI, where lingering moisture could favor fog prior
to 12z. The past few hours of observations have ranged from 1 to 3
miles. Confidence is too low to include LIFR, but kept a mention of
IFR potential. Some gusts to 15-18 kt are possible today from the
NE. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm near FAY today, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

After 06Z Saturday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat, with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun
into early next week with a potential tropical or subtropical low
pressure system.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren