263
FXUS62 KRAH 220001 CCA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
801 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southwestward and across NC through this
evening. Following high pressure will build across and offshore the
Middle Atlantic through Saturday. An area of low pressure will track
along and just off the coast of the Carolinas on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

* Widely scattered showers will spread south across the Piedmont
  into the Sandhills this afternoon and evening. The showers
  should be short lived and transient but with a bit more
  coverage than previously expected.

The latest surface analysis shows Hurricane Erin accelerating away
from central NC. A cold front extended from northeastern NC
northwest into southwestern VA. The widespread stratus across NC
this morning has lifted, thinned and broken up a bit allowing
for temperatures to climb a bit more than expected into the
lower to mid 80s. This has allowed the airmass to become weakly
unstable which has promoted the development of scattered
showers across central NC. The showers are rather small and
transient but the coverage of the precipitation is apt to pick
up over the next few hours before waning toward early evening.
The greatest cover is expect to range from south-central VA into
the Piedmont and across the Sandhills with a minimum of
coverage across the northern and central Coastal Plain including
Roanoke Rapids and Goldsboro. Other deeper convection across
the mountains of NC and VA may make a run at the Triad this
afternoon through mid evening. While most of the precipitation
will just be showers, a couple of showers could develop into a
thunderstorm. Northerly winds this afternoon at 6 to 12 mph
with a few gusts to around 20 mph in the eastern areas will
become light this evening but become more northeasterly behind
the front. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s near the
VA border to the upper 60s across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Thursday...

* Generally dry a bit cooler with the unsettled weather shifted
  south into GA and SC.

By Friday morning the cold front should reach the NC and SC border
and continue south into SC and GA during the day. A cool northeast
flow will be in place on Friday morning with a transient surface
high moving across the mid-Atlantic and then off the DELMARVA coast
on Friday evening. A somewhat drier airmass will move into central
NC with PW values dropping a quarter to half an inch by Friday
afternoon with the deep moisture with PW values of 2.25 or more
across GA and SC. The threat of showers will be focused well south o
our area although an isolated afternoon or evening shower could
develop near the SC border in the southern Piedmont and southern
Sandhills areas. For most locations a dry Friday and Friday night
can be expected. Highs on Friday will range fro 80 to 85 with lows
on Friday night ranging from the lower 60s near Roanoke Rapids to
the upper 60s near the SC border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

* No Significant Rain or Hazards Expected

* Taste of Fall Next Week

Weak but persistent sfc high pressure extending south from the
Mid-Atlantic will hold over the Carolinas Saturday, ensuring
another dry day with slightly below normal temperatures.

By late weekend into early next week, the upper flow pattern
will amplify, with strong upper level ridging over
the western US and a deep trough over the East.
As the upper trough and associated cold front approach, rain chances
return Sunday into Monday(eastern NC). That said, the potential
development of a weak coastal low near the SC-NC border could
significantly reduce rain chances and amounts inland---a
classic "Carolina Split" setup.

Temperatures will moderate to near-normal briefly Sunday and
Monday ahead of the front. In it`s wake, Canadian high
pressure will build south, delivering a taste of fall
for late August. Expect highs 75 to 80 with humidity levels
dropping noticeably, making for very comfortable conditions.
Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, with pockets of lower 50s possible
in the climatologically cooler spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

A backdoor cold frontal segment and convergence axis, now stretching
from near ILM nwwd to INT and ROA, will continue to settle swwd and
across the wrn Sandhills, srn Piedmont, and Foothills of NC tonight.
A cluster of showers and isolated storms now centered from near ROA
to MTV to UKF may continue to drift swd along that front and affect
INT and GSO with flight restrictions through around 03-04Z. Another
shower and/or outflow winds along and near the front, will also be
possible at FAY. Otherwise, an area of MVFR ceilings now over ern VA
and nern NC will probably overspread RWI very soon and linger there
for much of the night, while a separate area of IFR-MVFR ceilings
will probably develop nearer the front at INT/GSO. RDU and FAY may
initially be situated between the two areas of ceilings, but an
areal expansion of the latter one nearer the front will probably
yield at least several hours of MVFR ceilings at those sites Fri
morning. All sub-VFR ceilings should lift and scatter to VFR between
12-16Z Fri.

Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected
into the weekend. Some MVFR CIGS are possible Saturday and Sunday
morning and an afternoon shower is possible Sunday and perhaps
Monday. Fair and quiet weather should follow through mid week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS/Blaes