895
FXUS62 KRAH 180620
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Dangerous heat with Heat Advisories issued today for all but
  the NW Piedmont region today from 11 AM through 9 PM.

* Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and evening. Damaging wind the main threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

1) Heat Advisory today from 11 AM through 9 PM for much of the
region, except the NW Piedmont.

2) A slight risk of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon
into the evening spreading over NW, north-central, and the
northeast areas late afternoon through mid-evening, then areas
south and east later this evening. Damaging wind the main
threat.

3) Unsettled and hot/humid weather to continue through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat Advisory today from 11 AM through 9 PM for
much of the region, except the NW Piedmont.

The heat advisory is in effect from 1100 AM through 900 PM
today. There is a chance of strong to locally severe
thunderstorms in the NW by mid to late afternoon, and in the
areas of north-central, central, and northeastern Piedmont by
600 PM - through midnight.

Actual highs today will be close to those of Friday. I suspect
with the return of the SW flow today that some areas will be
hotter (like RDU) which has the hottest temperatures with a SW
flow. Recent days have had light or E flow keeping temperatures
in check a bit.

Heat indices of 105-109 for several hours this afternoon are
expected in the Advisory area. In the NW, the heat indices of
100 are expected, which in my opinion should be advisory
criteria for that region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A slight risk of severe thunderstorms later
this afternoon into the evening for the region.

The models, especially hi-res are depicting scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon developing SE from the Blue
Ridge around 18z-19z, possibly into the Winston-Salem area
19z-22z, Greensboro 20z-23z, and the RDU area to north of RWI
around 00z through the evening.

High CAPE, generally favorable shear 35+ knots (especially
north), PW`s of 2+ inches, and lift support some damaging wind
gusts and small microbursts.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Unsettled and hot/humid weather to continue
through midweek.

A stalled boundary associated with active weather on Sunday will
gradually washout and give way to southwesterly flow early next
week, with central NC remaining on the warm and unstable side of the
synoptic frontal zone. Relatively lower heights aloft
associated with the broad cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes
and Northeast, along with a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the northeast Gulf, should support continued periods of
mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms Monday and Tuesday,
before a stronger synoptic cold front attendant to a deeper
upper trough is progged to push through the region. A better
severe threat may unfold Wednesday with the front and what
should be rather strong mid-level flow in the base of the
trough, although the overall pattern of multi-day showers/storms
and overturning lends some uncertainty to the threat.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches seem reasonable Mon-
Wed as PW remains anomalously high across the Southeast, due in
part to the a weak surface trough or low that models have been
indicating will develop over the northeast Gulf by Sunday.
Higher rainfall amounts will depend on where showers and storms
are more robust, with models generally favoring eastern NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 18z today. After 18z,
there is a chance of thunderstorms in the Triad terminals into the
early evening. The chance of storms reaches the Triangle and RWI
early to mid evening.

Outlook: An approaching cold front Sunday may result in a more
active weather pattern to support sub-VFR conditions from
stratus/mist overnight and scattered to locally numerous
showers/storms in the PM. After a relative minimum in storm chances
on Tuesday, chances increase once again on Wednesday as a strong
cold front looks to move through.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures within 3F of forecast ones...

Record Highs:
July 18: KGSO: 97/1986

Record High Mins:
July 18: KGSO: 76/1986 KFAY: 77/2025
July 19: KGSO: 75/2016 KFAY: 77/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Smith
AVIATION...Danco/Swiggett